Welcome to a land where all parties are socialist: a Portuguese politics thread

[clandestino]

You know you need it, your fix of Portuguese politics.

Well maybe you don't, but I guess we'll have it anyway.

For the uninitiated and in a very simplistic way, Portugal was ruled by a conservative dictatorship for 48 years that ended in the mid-70s after a military coup/revolution (chose you own). Opposite to what happened in eastern Europe after the fall of communism, in those years, all concepts related to right-wing politics were demodé and Socialism was all the rage.

That's why almost 50 years later most parties (those that were founded during those days) retain some Social-something in their names even if their politics don't resemble what they should be if we go only by their titles. Some might say that Portugal as a country leans to the left of the average though, when compared to other European politics systems.

Disclaimer nr 1: I'll try to be as impartial as possible, but you should know that I lean left wing to "a bit tired of our current setup".

So without further ado, let's present you the political parties that are represented in the national assembly in the order of results from the last election in 2019:

PS - Socialist Party (36%): current government, can be described as center left by Portuguese standards, in line with similar parties in Spain, France or Greece. Huge "power party", ruling the country half the time in the last 40 years (the other half see below), ruling more than half of all municipalities (mayorships) in the country. Minority government, rules with the help of the parties to its left and some minor parties and independent mps. The previous socialist prime minister was arrested with suspicion of corruption, nevertheless the party remained viable after a few years unlike similar ones in Europe.

PSD - Social Democrat Party (28%): main opposition and also huge "power party". Traditionally seen as an umbrella of center right to right interests in the country, similar to a toned down Spanish PP, economically liberal (Euro sense) with some Catholic sensibilities and socially a mixture between a somewhat liberal city economic elite and more traditionalist voters. Ruled the country during the troika years (last international economical intervention after the last crisis) characterized by austerity politics that didn't went that well with a part of the electorate (shocker I know...). Currently in internal tensions with a weak leader, two new parties nibbling at their wings (liberals and populist reactionaries) and a long time without ruling.

BE - Left Bloc (10%): Leftist coalition created in the late 90s. In a love/hate relationship with PS, helping to support the government but being critical of its policies. In line with Spanish Podemos, Melenchon's party, Die Link or Syriza before being government. Some tensions simmer about the support given to PS in government, that probably will surge with a poor electoral result. (disclaimer: I usually vote these guys).

CDU - Democratic Unitarian Coalition (6%): Not really a coalition but the sum of the Communist Party (these guys aren't wishy-washy reformed communists a la France or Italy) and the Greens (not like Euro Greens, but as a communist sister party created in the early 80s). Trying to sustain the drain of voters, each election seems to be the worst result in history, but still standing. Disproportionate power in local politics is seen as the party of the Public Administration/Unions. Maybe the most Eurosceptic party in the country. Helps to sustain the government in the same way as BE.

CDS - Democratic Social Center (4%): Historic party, traditionally the party most to the right in the parliament. A similar umbrella like PSD but with greater influence of the more traditionalist sectors of society like the Church or rural interests. A more dysfunctional family than PSD is at risk of disappearing eaten apart by the new parties in the right and a bad leadership. Usually in coalition with PSD in government (11 of 19 years).

PAN - People-Animals-Nature (3%): Newer party, formed from animal rights groups spreading to ecological interests. Center to center left but more of an issue party than one with a global view of society. Has its support in urban areas and it's loathed in most of the rural world for its stance on its traditions: hunting, bullfighting, etc. One of the most reliable supporters of the PS government in exchange of token measures in their areas of interest.

CHEGA - ENOUGH (1%): Yes, their acronym means "enough", you can add one more Portuguese word to your vocabulary. Newer party. For a long time Portugal was seen as impervious to far right populism, but that isn't true anymore. Led by a strong leader, raised by a mix of PSD support (former member) and football debate TV shows. Same as everywhere: conservative of other people's attitudes, anti corruption, leftists and immigrants, etc. The local flavor is being anti-Roma. In line with Le Pen, Salvini, Orban. Recent polls have them at around 10%.

IL - Liberal Initiative (1%): Newer party. Classic liberals, tending to the right, since they care a little bit more about economic rather than social liberalism. Along with CHEGA are splitting the traditional right wing alliance of interests that formed both PSD and CDS. Modern party with a strong marketing component, popular among young professionals in the big cities.

All of these parties are represented in the national assembly and are important to the political debate. In the future there will be the usual stories of the current state of affairs and some other older stuff, hopefully funnier/more interesting.

Feel free to ask anything and enjoy!(?)

[Habbaku]

IL - Liberal Initiative (1%):

Thanks for the overview, though. 

[Duque de Bragança]

Why am I not surprised that you are a BE voter? 

Bem-vindo de volta para casa dos loucos! 

[Jacob]

Good to see you clandestino!

Looking forward to the updates

[clandestino]

Why am I not surprised that you are a BE voter? 

Bem-vindo de volta para casa dos loucos! 

It's not like I've tried to hide it or something

Nevertheless I hope the info is as unbiased as possible while being somewhat interesting/funny, but as I was writing the BE entry I was thinking that it was softer than others...

Obrigado

[Duque de Bragança]

Why am I not surprised that you are a BE voter? 

Bem-vindo de volta para casa dos loucos! 

It's not like I've tried to hide it or something

Nevertheless I hope the info is as unbiased as possible while being somewhat interesting/funny, but as I was writing the BE entry I was thinking that it was softer than others...

Obrigado

Yeah, I forgot to mention that the info is not really biased and not very controversial, almost consensual. As for socialism all the rage, in the beginning yes, that's for sure. Less so since the premiership of Cavaco Silva, you know it I'm sure but not the other ones. Could have ended earlier were it not for the assassination/sabotage/plane accident of Sá Carneiro but that's one for a Portuguese Tim.
Trivia for Languish: Porto airport is named after Sá Carneiro.

I would have said the PS and PSD are actually the left and right wings of the Centrão (Centre bloc) of Portuguese politics. PS stopped being really socialist in 1975 when it appeared salami tactics could be to its detriment. Plus hello Frank Carlucci, plus leftists and stalinists can never agree anyways.

I would have added André Ventura, of CHEGA, is still a notch below Le Pen and the like. However, as the Benfica supporter he is, it makes sense to go for some kind of authoritarianism. Régime club etc.

CDS-PP might have scared leftists in the past, but it's really a (German) CDU-light (pre-Merkel).

Also, I don't see Portuguese gypsies as Roma, I'd reserve Roma for Eastern Euro gypsies, but I know why you are using it. France is even complicated with gypsies in the south clearly related to Iberian gypsies, then Manouches in the North and East and newly arrived Roma from Central Europe.

One more party:

PCTP-MRPP Portuguese Workers' Communist Party/Re-Organized Movement of the Party of the Proletariat (1%) Enough to get a Portuguese assembly seat in Lisbon sometimes.

Maoist party, famously described by the very stalinist/Moscow marxist-leninist "orthodoxy"centered as a CIA submarine/proxy, during the troubled transition to democracy, following the end of Marcello Caaetano's régime, a failed attempt at an orderly exit from salazarism, with the first attempts at a social state.

Those maos are (in)famous for having among his former members, Durão Barroso, former prime minister of Portugal as PSD leader (for a short time), EU Commission president and now chairman and senior adviser for Goldman-Sachs. 

[clandestino]

After yesterday's introduction you need to be acquainted with the main characters and then the little stories can follow.

A few guidelines about the regime though:

• Portugal is a semi-presidentialist regime, but most of the power is held by the national assembly and the Prime Minister. Usually the PM is supported by a stable majority in the parliament and the mps don't have the freedom of vote in most issues, following the party lines instead.
• The president is elected by the general population and its main prerogatives are the power to dissolve the parliament (the nuke option, rarely used), to veto/send laws to be assessed by the Constitutional Court (in the past it seems there was a wider use of the former, these days the latter) and it's the Supreme Chief of the Armed Forces (lol).
• In the past, the fact that both the national assembly and the President are elected directly has led to some conflicts of political power, that are practically solved by traditional roles these days.
• There are no real administrative divisions until the local level, where there are around 300 municipalities/mayorships.

The Prime Minister, António Costa
Prime Minister since 2015 after a surprising agreement of parliamentary support with the parties to the left of PS which usually never supported the socialists. Baptized by an opponent as a Geringonça (The Contraption) has led to a surprisingly stable governmental solution with the effort to backpedal on some of the measures of the troika years (coalition PSD-CDS). Since then was reelected, still not holding an outright majority in parliament.
A former minister and Lisbon mayor has had a surprising long career in the upper positions of the state, avoiding most of the blowback natural from a long tenure, most notably the fact that he was the equivalent of Interior minister for two years in the government led by José Socrates (the former PM that was arrested on corruption charges). Very skillful politician, seems always ahead of possible problems and how to solve them or how to disappear in the shadows if needed. As in most politicians that survive easily the Portuguese arena, seems destined for a top international position in the future, like Durão Barroso or António Guterres (sorry world ).




The President, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
Maybe the most intelligent politician in this country, is a son of a minister from dictatorial times and godson of the successor to Salazar, Marcello Caetano. Former Law University teacher and former leader of PSD, has used a TV prime time position in national news where he was a commentator as a springboard to the Presidential office. Very popular, was elected mostly by center right voters, but reelected mostly by the center left. It seems everyone and their mother has posed for a selfie with the president and it seems easier to find pictures of the man in shorts swimming in the ocean than in a suit. Even if not from my political area, I respect the man a lot and its no-nonsense, down to earth approach to the office has helped to curtail the rise of the populist right.




The leader of the opposition, Rui Rio
Former mayor of the second most important city in the country (Porto) was elected at the time in a platform that wanted to separate the interests of the city and of the football club (which were murkier at best at the time). Successful at that, it led to a positive image in the rest of the country (since it mostly supports different clubs ). Former economist, is seen as a practical and direct man, not so found of some of the usual niceties of party politics, specially towards the judiciary system (fair) and the media (not really). Maybe the only person in the country that believes his party is center-left social democrat and that he was not elected to steer the party during the crossing of the desert of opposition. Clearly there to get the rug pulled from under his feet when the time to govern arrives, is having a great difficulty in keeping the right and center right forces in the country connected to his party, leading one to wonder if there will be a strong PSD when that time arrives.




The man biding his time, Pedro Passos Coelho
Former PM between 2011-2015, led the country during the troika years. Currently, the only man able to unite the right from the liberals to the populists (and the left against him). Has kept himself mostly quiet during these years, but many feel he's only waiting for the right time to return. Led the most voted party to the 2015 elections, still feels that the power was taken from him in a contra natura solution that will lead the country to the same problems that originated the last international intervention.

[Duque de Bragança]

One more character, Fernando Medina, mayor of Lisbon (often a step to PM in a so centralized/macrocephalic country such as Portugal), replacing António Costa.
Fernando became infamous with a scandal involving Lisbon city hall passing info on Russian political opponents (pro-Navalny), even dual citizenship Russian/Portuguese citizens, to the Russian embassy.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/lisbon-mayor-apologises-over-exposure-pro-navalny-activists-moscow-2021-06-10/
He refused to resign and set up an inquiring committee, hopefully a scapegoat will be found.
Later on, it was revealed info was also passed by city hall services to lovely régimes such as China, Angola and Venezuela regarding their respective political opponents.

As for António Costa and his government, geringonça is better translated "creatively" as combinazione, it stars a bit like gerry-rigged. 
No coalition with the leftist of the BE and the orthodox marxist-leninists of the PCP was announced, prior to elections. I guess leftists, and now the PCP, like to play useful idiots, as stated by the great Lenin. 
In the '80s, in in a comparable situation, PS made a coalition government with PSD.

Back to Costa, man is known to be an opportunist as in changing ideas if need be cf. bullfighting which he attended outside of Lisbon when he was Lisbon mayor, even awarding bullfighters, https://poligrafo.sapo.pt/politica/artigos/antonio-costa-diz-se-chocado-com-a-transmissao-de-touradas-mas-ha-10-anos-condecorava-forcados and whingeing with racism for instance when asked a tough question about police and law enforcement following some police brutality controversy.

Complains about racism in Portugal against himself (my skin colour!) yet manages to reach Prime Minister position. 

Some interesting media double standards regarding "gaffes" by Costa and Pedro Passos Coelho:
https://poligrafo.sapo.pt/fact-check/ventura-diz-que-costa-sugeriu-que-os-professores-de-portugues-sem-colocacao-poderiam-emigrar-verdade-ou-mentira
When Passos Coelho suggested Portuguese teachers could go to lusophones countries if there are no positions for them in Portugal (common problem), there was quite the tempest in the teapot. A similar declaration by Costa, suggesting France (?!) went almost unnoticed and so André Ventura, the evil populist had to remind some biased media of another gaffe, but by Costa this time, a few years later.

I first understood Passos Coelho's declaration as a not so subtle joke vs Brazilians and their Portuguese language skills (yeah they really need Portuguese teachers) but that was not the intended meaning. 
I don't see Passos Coelho coming back, unlike clandestino, however that PSD is notorious for its barons as in very unruly party so Rui Rio has a lot of work on his hands to keep the party in one piece.

Hadn't seen Pedro Passos Coelho new baldness/haircut is awful and ages badly, even worse than what his tenure in government dit to his hair. 

As for the weak troll vs FC Porto, well Porto is now more popular in Portugal (not just north of the Mondego i.e North Portugal) due to this huge successes, specially abroad, from the '80s on, than Sporting, (official) Portugal or Lisbon depending on whom you ask, the latter being the club of the bourgeoisie and nobles till the '80s. Also known Régime club n° 2.  So I can see where clandestino is coming from. 

Still, Sporting managed to be champion this year, for the first time in 19 years, so it's not as bad as a Benfica title.    Hopefully, they behave better than Benfica in the CL those past seasons (6 defeats in 6 games being the nadir).

PS: football has an uncanny influence in Portuguese politics. In France, it's politics who interfere in football, in Portugal it's football that interferes in politics. Think of the 3 Fs of Salazar times: Fado, Fátima, Football.

Clandestino forgot the 18 districts in the administrative divisions, with provinces still used in common parlance but not by the administration since the 19th century, but it's true there are no regions even if some were somewhat created for the EU, to allocate funds on a regional basis.
Regionalisation or not is a debate surfacing every now and then in Portuguese politics, due to Lisboete hyper-centralism. Things get even more complicated with hypothetical regional administrative borders.
Azores and Madeira are semi-autonomous regions however.
It's true that mayors have more local influence than the position of mayor would warrant, in theory, as an advocate of the district and/or region sometimes.

[clandestino]

Thanks for the input Duque, really appreciated.

Regarding Medina, I think he's a non entity at the moment, risking even to lose the Lisbon election. He has no charisma whatsoever and I believe those in need will never let this Russian story disappear (rightly IMO). Even Costa knows he can't defend him that much, risking a thorough review of his years as mayor and how these situations were handled at the time. Even his place as the successor from the center of the party is in jeopardy by Ana Catarina Mendes, which seems a stronger candidate and politically wiser.

About the "weak troll" against Porto (the club) I guess I didn't convey my idea correctly. My point is that most supporters are hypocrites and while lauding Rio for his treatment of the situation, most seem to find natural when the opposite happens as long as their clubs are the ones being helped by the political power. I agree completely with your assessment of the relations between football and politics.

Districts are meaningless these days without even governadores civis. Even when they were a thing it's not like they had any relevant power. Regionalization is a recurrent theme like you mention and one that I intend to discuss in the near future since it's out of the public forum these days, so not that closed in the usual political bubbles.

[Duque de Bragança]

Yeah, Medina is weakened and Costa will have to find another successor. I don't see Costa as charismatic but let's just say he is not a non-entity like Medina now. It's not Costa would take risks for anybody else.  It's political savvy, something I cannot deny him.

Well, the double standards about clubs and politics is sadly not going to disappear soon. Alluding to the role of the current Benfica present in the fraudulent bankruptcy of Banco Espírito Santo, which had to be saved by taxpayer money, is enough to warrant wrath from not just a fanatic fringe. Now Novo Banco until a new bankruptcy scandal?

Back to administrative matters, I suppose once could say districts are only existing de jure and the inter-communality (autarquias and cities/municípios) model failed as well, which makes adopting European regions NUTs interesting in a way due to a missing echelon. It's still a reference for me since locating unknown concelhos is tougher without the reference to districts.
The more I see info about the current organisation and various reform attempts, the more of a mess it looks.

If you have a preferred man for regionalization, I am curious to see it. Should be fun arguing about it. 

[clandestino]

I know what you mean about using old districts/regions to find places. Personally, I don't know why but always though that some places in Trás-os-Montes seem they are located in Madeira just going by their name. 

About regionalization, before maps we need to decide if there is a need to new regions and what do we want them to do/achieve. After we answer these questions the maps should be easy to do apart from 2 or 3 places I believe.

[Duque de Bragança]

If not's Bragança, Vila Real, Mirandela (alheiras/sausages!) or Miranda do Douro (carne/meat): trouble? 

5 or 8 regions in in the Continent? What about the coast/interior (hinterland) asymmetry? Some powers and which ones to the region? Local transportation? It's almost as if rail never existed. Preferably without creating another plethoric layer of civil servants...
If these problems can be solved without regionalization that's fine by me, but I would be curious to see how.

I suppose the point is to help reduce asymmetrical development between not just North/South (Lisbon Tagus valley really) but coast/interior. Border with Spain is such a hindrance.  
Align somewhat at the very least with the Euro regions or NUTs? 

Also, Lisbon is in a very seismic area, with possible tsunamis (1755 not just the Moonspell album). So another capital is advisable. 

[Duque de Bragança]

Feared lowest voting participation in local / city council elections (autárquicas), according to most reports.

https://www.dn.pt/politica/siga-aqui-os-desenvolvimentos-sobre-as-eleicoes-autarquicas-14159904.html

Did you do your civic duty clandestino? 

[Duque de Bragança]

Results came in. PS still leads but their hegemony is -thankfully- over with key cities such as Lisbon (all hail Moedas!), Porto (!) and Coimbra lost to the PSD. I am curious to see if the very local scandal involving the PS mayor administration passing personal details to unsavory regimes such as Russia, China or Venezuela was decisive.

PSD (centre/centre-right) was on the verge on being irrelevant so Rui Rio, former Porto mayor, once a personal enemy of Pinto da Costa (F.C Porto president) over some local issues involving a stadium  , seems to have made a few good choices at last. CDS-PP (conservatives) survive by good alliance choices with PSD.

Unreformed stalinists used as useful idiots by the PS PCP are continuing their decline. Bloco de Esquerdas (Trot-mao/whatever leftist) still lacking grassroots over the country to really count in this local elections.

Who could vote in these local elections:

Can vote in local elections, those registered in the census of the national territory, all Portuguese citizens (and Brazilian citizens with status of equal political rights) and also citizens of the following countries:

- Member States of the European Union (Germany, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Croatia, Denmark, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Estonia, Finland, France, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxemburg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Czech Republic, Romania and Sweden);

- United Kingdom, with residence prior to Brexit;

- Brazil (without equality status) and Cape Verde with legal residence in Portugal for over two years;

- Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Island, Norway, New Zealand, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela with legal residence in Portugal for over three years.

https://www.acm.gov.pt/-/sou-cidadao-estrangeiro-e-resido-em-portugal-posso-votar-nas-eleicoes-portuguesas-

Brazilians with equality status, as per treaty of Porto Seguro, may be elected as well IIRC/

Some links in English and Spanish. Given the infamous lack of language skills of the Anglos in Portuguese that could be useful, but they are not that much into local politics, even less so than the Portuguese (50 % of registered people did not vote roughly).

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/portugals-ruling-socialists-lead-local-elections-lose-lisbon-2021-09-27/

LISBON, Sept 27 (Reuters) - Portugal's ruling Socialists suffered a surprise setback in Sunday's municipal elections, losing control of Lisbon after 14 years, though they remained the biggest party nationwide after a ballot that encompassed more than 300 city and town halls.

Carlos Moedas, former European Commissioner for Research, Science and Innovation from the main opposition Social Democratic Party (PSD), won Lisbon by a margin of just 1 percentage point, securing 34.25% for his centre-right party's alliance with the conservative CDS-PP.

"We start a new cycle today... which I believe begins in Lisbon but will not end in Lisbon," Moedas, who seeks to make the city a "unicorn factory" for tech startups, said in his victory speech in the early hours on Monday.

Portugal's Prime Minister Antonio Costa, a former mayor of Lisbon, expressed disappointment over his party's loss there.

"It's lamentable but this is how democracy works. As everyone knows, the defeat was unexpected ... I feel frustration, obviously," he said.

But overall, with 99% of the ballots counted, the Socialists took 34.4% of the vote and 147 municipalities across Portugal, well ahead of the PSD, which took 24% either on its own or in alliance with the CDS-PP.

The result is slightly below that achieved by the Socialists in the last parliamentary election in 2019 and in the previous municipal elections in 2017.

The Communist Party came third with 8.2% and the Left Bloc scored just 2.8%.

The far-right Chega party, whose rise since the election of their first member of parliament in 2019 has shaken up the political landscape, won just 4.2% of the vote and zero municipalities, falling well short of its goal of becoming the third-largest political force.

[clandestino]

As some of you may know, there will be parliamentary elections at the end of the month.

To put it shortly, these type of elections are the most important regarding the ruling of the country and I will vote in the largest "circle", so I'll have more liberty in choosing which party to vote for without squandering my vote.

This is important since I'm not sure who to vote for this time and well, I guess any feedback is welcome.

Below you will see the previous electoral results (2019) and the "poll of polls" of politico.eu (which averages all the lastest polls) and seems more or less in line with what is being released in the last weeks.



About the acronyms and what they mean, you can read my first post, since it still stands the test of time (although PSD leader is not as weak I guess...)

The only one that I didn't mention was L - Free, since at the time it wasn't represented in the parliament, although it elected one, because she left the party and became independent. To put it simply, these guys are between PS and BE and were created when one of its founders left BE to create a more Europeist, more Social Democrat, less Trotskyist solution, more welcoming of finding ruling solutions with the PS. If you follow Spanish politics you can see them kind of like Errejón's Más party.

Before someone starts recommending a vote in Enough (you can but I'll not take you seriously ), my options are the communists (CDU), the leftists (BE) and the other leftists (L). Yes, I'm a dirty commie  .

The left in this country (and I guess in most) is populated by two main factions: an economical left and a liberal left which sometimes share the same goals, but sometimes don't and one can argue that a strong focus in one of the them, makes the goals of the other less important/ visible. In the past 20 years my vote has shifted between what I perceived was most important at the time, hopefully based on national, but probably on personal situations.

This time isn't different and I intend to support a strong economical left approach which all of them share, but more strongly in CDU, then BE, then L. The more liberal/ identitarian (is this a word?) run the opposite. The problem is that in CDU there is plenty of things I don't agree with, but I like their focus the most, while I'm a bread and butter L/BE voter, tired of the current BE leadership and a fan of the L candidate, although his party is kind of a mess.

I guess I can be more specific if needed with all the details, but my question now is, how do you guys usually decide when in a conundrum like the one above?