The EU thread

[mongers]

Really good overview video Jacob. I learned quite a bit. I didn't know the Dutch had such a good marines contingent.

The son of a good friend of mine is in the Royal Netherlands Marines, hard to tell which one of them is most proud.

Training on a par with UK R.M.

[mongers]

....

FWIW the British (and I assume Canadian) focus on the High North and North Atlantic, (West) German focus on land forces in Central Europe and Italy in the Med would also basically replicate the more specific roles those nations played in Cold War NATO. So you'd hope it kind of echoes existing capabilities and strategic thinking.

Shelf, the most recent JEF exercise had UK land forces deployed by road and by strategic sea-lift vessels (not American by UK, I forget the ship class name) to the Roumanian border near Moldova.

I don't think they intentionally make these exercises unrealistic or do them for shit and giggles, one would have to assume there's a fair degree of flexibility in the it's operational abilities.

[Jacob]

I think Canada would make sense as an addition but I would resist expanding this - instead I'd suggest taking it as a model.

Yeah, for sure. When I say it's a potential vehicle for others to attach to, what I meant is "after something happens". I.e. Russia tries to seize Gotland or Bornholm or something, the JEF responds quickly using its existing structure. Perhaps France, Germany, and Poland all say "fuck this, you know what we're going to fight the Russians too". Instead of having to figure out how to stand up a multi-national force inside or outside the EU (or NATO) if those groups aren't aligned and ready to go yet, they can potentially integrate their forces into something built on top of the JEF structure at shorter notice.

So very much aligned with the idea of regional JEF-like structures elsewhere - though it doesn't preclude the JEF from doing what Mongers alludes to, namely deploying outside of the Baltic and North Atlantic (even if having a robust defense there is the precipitating reason for the JEF).

Maybe it turns into a two-speed Europe (or more speeds), but for the military.

[Sheilbh]

Shelf, the most recent JEF exercise had UK land forces deployed by road and by strategic sea-lift vessels (not American by UK, I forget the ship class name) to the Roumanian border near Moldova.

I don't think they intentionally make these exercises unrealistic or do them for shit and giggles, one would have to assume there's a fair degree of flexibility in the it's operational abilities.

Sure and they very much exist within NATO which I think is right.

But I think if you look at the 2025 round-up or recent activities it's clearly framed as and focused on acting as a Northern European/Atlantic defence pillar. Their big exercise at the end of last year included JEF countries plus Canada and Germany (and Ukraine joining as an "enhanced partner"). It was the biggest so far (and I think bigger are planned next year) and it included exercises in the Arctic in Norway, the Baltic Sea and Latvia (it integrated Latvia's big annual exercises):
https://jefnations.org/2025/12/17/a-jef-round-up-in-2025/

I'm not saying we ignore flexibility but rather structures like this help us build on the existing specialisations from 70 years of being in a larger alliance together, regardless of what happens to that alliance - in coordination with others. If Germany and Poland are building up their land forces rapidly (and they are), I think it would be redundant for Britain to prioritise resurrecting the Army of the Rhine (now Army of the Vistula?) - I don't think that's where we'd be most helpful and vice-versa.

Jake: Totally agree and get what you mean. And vice versa - if there is a push on Moldova I'd be very surprised if Lithuania will want to take the lead as they'd have their own risks, but this structre could help reassure them while also providing an operational way of other partners deploying rapidly elsewhere (without weakening the Baltic and North Atlantic).

I think that's right on a multi-speed and multi-faceted Europe with, as I say, I think a regional strategic/risk focus. And I think if there are other models that are similar around other regions then I think they should all coordinate. In part because actually I think that is one way to ask questions of Russia make it clear that on all direction they're facing potentially strong and deployable pushback and it's not a question (as it currently is to some extent) of Europe having to rob Peter to pay Paul.

[Norgy]

The Fens field in Telemark, Norway, of rare earth minerals apparently most likely (for a lack of a better phrase) will yield 40 percent more than what was previously assumed.

Telemark is also where all the thorium is. And where the heroes of said Telemark blew up heavy water shit, if you need a reference.

This reasonably new finding is potentially a way for Europe to achieve independence from the PRC when it comes to rare earth minerals.

Provided we share, of course. 

[Duque de Bragança]

The Fens field in Telemark, Norway, of rare earth minerals apparently most likely (for a lack of a better phrase) will yield 40 percent more than what was previously assumed.

Telemark is also where all the thorium is. And where the heroes of said Telemark blew up heavy water shit, if you need a reference.

This reasonably new finding is potentially a way for Europe to achieve independence from the PRC when it comes to rare earth minerals.

Provided we share, of course. 

Either cod or rare earth minerals, not both? 

Time to open that rare earth minerals mine in northern Portugal, cancelled by PS corruption, I guess.

[Legbiter]

Spain has drawn the Eye of Sauron.

US President Donald Trump has threatened to halt all trade with Spain, after the country barred the US from using its military bases as part of its operation in Iran.

In comments at the White House, Trump said Spain had been "terrible" and suggested "we're going to cut off all trade". "We don't want anything to do with Spain," he told reporters.

Can someone give me TLDR on Spanish politics. I pay more attention to weather forecasts and the menu when over there.

[Valmy]

Can you cut off all trade with Spain when they are part of a trading block?

But sure let's just cut off trade with everybody.

[Legbiter]

Can you cut off all trade with Spain when they are part of a trading block?

But sure let's just cut off trade with everybody.

No. This will presumably activate the anti-coercion EU mechanism. It was orginally set up to counter Chyna.