The EU thread

[crazy canuck]

Should we be worried about Germany and Italy being aligned?

Depends where you are. Americans will start worrying when Japan joins that alliance.

[Zanza]

Big free trade deal signed between the European Union and India.

[Sheilbh]

Seems to be irrelevant. EU countries constantly form factions and align on policy based on their current priorities, but those change with the issues at hand. Sometimes Germany and France are aligned, sometimes they are opposed. So what.

I think the article and the old common wisdom is kind of right that the engine of further integration is Franco-German alignment, perhaps not because of the countries themselves, though that matters, but that they represent strands and interests within the EU. And at this point Germany still matters a lot more because it's bigger, its economy is bigger and in large part more integrated within wider European networks. I don't think it's accidental that in the last 10-15 years integration has largely stalled and that coincides with far more difficult relations between Paris and Berlin even if they still do the formal/symbolic stuff of first trips etc.

Plus Macron will be gone in the next 18 months. He came into office with very ambitious plans for Europe, laid out in his first Sorbonne speech, and so I think there is a bit of stock taking. I've got mixed views and I'm not fully sure what I think on him (and a lot will depend on who wins and how in the Presidential election).

I tend to align in favour of the Mercosur deal, but am distinctly unimpressed by the Merz and Meloni instinct to suck up to Trump.

For the European project, I lean more towards Macron.

I'm more torn. I think actually doing deals like with India or (especially) Mercosur is kind of key to Europe being a strategic actor. I'd also add that with Merz there is €1 trillion of spending on defence and infrastructure (which is necessary and good) and I think far more significant in building strategic autonomy than one's pose towards Trump (especially when it's not aligned with private messages).

But as I say there have been so many instances of Macron doing this and people in French policy circles explaining that there is a deliberate strategy in Macron making very strong, sometimes provocative remarks precisely in order to generate a decision from others (especially the rest of Europe). I think the ambition and the goal is right but I can't think of many examples when it has actually worked, I think it is frustrating/tiring/draining for other leaders. I personally think it undermines France's goal of strategic autonomy for Europe as I think the rest of Europe sees that method as revealing what France actually means by strategic autonomy which is French leadership. The French President makes grand statements - a coup de main, perhaps - but the details have to be worked out by everyone else afterwards - as opposed to build the consensus before the dramatic announcement. I think Greenland was an interesting example of that because I don't think many other member states were endorsing retaliatory tariffs (Poland and the Baltics were vocally very opposed - I think the Lithuanian president described it as going straight to the bazooka).

But I think Macron's analysis and vision is right - and I'm not sure you can cautiously, consensually, incrementally build that up. It goes back to the Monnet point of Europe will be created in crisis because it will be the sum of the solutions adopted in response to those crises.

Big free trade deal signed between the European Union and India.

Seems very positive and sensible (though - hate to say it - I do slightly take Trump's point on India and Russian oil).

Total aside but I was wondering recently if India's a bit of a worry? I was just thinking about the impact of AI and my suspicion is it will be most strongly felt in service sectors - and just wondering how that will work out for India which is basing its development far more on services and outsourced/managed services rather than industrialising like China. I wonder if it's particularly vulnerable if enterprise AI takes off (maybe the Philippines too?).

[HVC]

To paraphrase "in this India you will find many a China", but with America what it is there's little choice I guess.

[Valmy]

Big free trade deal signed between the European Union and India.

Seems very positive and sensible (though - hate to say it - I do slightly take Trump's point on India and Russian oil).

Total aside but I was wondering recently if India's a bit of a worry? I was just thinking about the impact of AI and my suspicion is it will be most strongly felt in service sectors - and just wondering how that will work out for India which is basing its development far more on services and outsourced/managed services rather than industrialising like China. I wonder if it's particularly vulnerable if enterprise AI takes off (maybe the Philippines too?).

Well don't be patholigical. Just because Trump thinks something doesn't necessarily mean it is wrong. The fact that our President is wrong 100% of the time is not some big credit to him.

Anyway I am curious how this AI thing is working itself out outside the US. Over here we are building huge data centers everywhere at great expense in infrastructure and they use a ridiculously large amount of energy. Are they building these things all over Europe? China? Is everybody going to be using our data centers for their AI? If so...does that worry anybody?