The EU thread

[alfred russel]

Macron's approval rating is floating around 40-50%. In year 4 Hollande's was at 15%, Sarko was at around 30%. Chirac was more popular at this point in his first term (obviously the change in term length will make comparisons tougher if Macron wins a second terms because he'll be almost unprecedented) - but Macron's approval is around the level of Mitterand.

If, after four years, your numbers are closer to Mitterand or Chirac's than Hollande or Sarko's, then I think it's fair to say that's pretty decent.

You can see his polls here. I think the Macrononi is a bit lower than that--especially if you consider the Harris polls to be outliers.

That said...Hollandaise and Sarko were notably unpopular in my opinion, but I will concede that if i'm saying the last 3 dudes were exceptional that becomes very tough to distinguish from a national characteristic.

[Sheilbh]

You can see his polls here. I think the Macrononi is a bit lower than that--especially if you consider the Harris polls to be outliers.

That said...Hollandaise and Sarko were notably unpopular in my opinion, but I will concede that if i'm saying the last 3 dudes were exceptional that becomes very tough to distinguish from a national characteristic.

I think the French are perhaps unique in this. I don't know if they're more miserable/cynical or just like to tell pollsters they are. But I think they're the only country in Europe that thinks the UK "won" Brexit (including the UK!). They always top the global comparison polls in terms of saying their country is on "the wrong track" - but I strongly suspect that while they might think France is awful, everywhere else is worse.

I think that applies to presidential polling (and everything else). So we should stop asking the French if they think something's good or bad and just ask, in a list of awful things, what do they think is most/least awful

[Duque de Bragança]

Macron's approval rating is floating around 40-50%. In year 4 Hollande's was at 15%, Sarko was at around 30%. Chirac was more popular at this point in his first term (obviously the change in term length will make comparisons tougher if Macron wins a second terms because he'll be almost unprecedented) - but Macron's approval is around the level of Mitterand.

If, after four years, your numbers are closer to Mitterand or Chirac's than Hollande or Sarko's, then I think it's fair to say that's pretty decent.

You can see his polls here. I think the Macrononi is a bit lower than that--especially if you consider the Harris polls to be outliers.

That said...Hollandaise and Sarko were notably unpopular in my opinion, but I will concede that if i'm saying the last 3 dudes were exceptional that becomes very tough to distinguish from a national characteristic.

Sarkozy was not more unpopular than Chirac.

Chirac only became popular after 2007, when he quit the French presidency.

[Sheilbh]

Sarkozy was not more unpopular than Chirac.

Chirac only became popular after 2007, when he quit the French presidency.

Chirac consistently had approval ratings somewhere in the range of 40-60% after 97 through to 2002. I don't think Sarko got to those levels after the first year or two.

[Duque de Bragança]

Sarkozy was not more unpopular than Chirac.

Chirac only became popular after 2007, when he quit the French presidency.

Chirac consistently had approval ratings somewhere in the range of 40-60% after 97 through to 2002. I don't think Sarko got to those levels after the first year or two.

Between 97 and 2002, that was cohabitation government, remember? He did not do much, and yes he was pretty good at it.

[Sheilbh]

Right but it's the analogous period with the Sarko comparison (and the Macron comparison), no? They're all about approval/popularity in the first term after the initial honeymoon.

[Duque de Bragança]

Chirac's popularity went down pretty quickly with massive transportation strikes in the early autumn of 95, about pension reform.

Popularity came with les Bleus' victory in '98, which he had no part in it, and opposition to the Iraq War, in 2003.

[Sheilbh]

Sure political circumstances change and the popularity of political actors depend on how they respond or capture them. There's no direct like for like but we can compare in a "at this time in their Presidency" way.

So it's wrong to say that Sarko was more popular than Chirac or that Chirac only became popular post-retirement. Maybe that's because Sarko was dealt a more difficult hand, maybe it's because he played far less effectively - I've got no idea on the balance of circumstances v action, but I don't necessarily think that's very important either.

[Duque de Bragança]

Sarko had quite a honeymoon in the beginning. Things went out of control with the Kadhafi sequence, yet Sarko managed to pass a few reforms, unlike Chirac.

Chirac, who died some time ago, is more popular now than Sarko, still alive, OTOH.

French politics thread here, just in case, for more details:
http://languish.org/forums/index.php/topic,16371.0.html

[Richard Hakluyt]

Chirac was tall though; good French presidents are tall, the little ones fail 

[Syt]

I mean Mitterrand was 5'6

[Duque de Bragança]

Go to the Refractory Gauls thread if you want to discuss tall presidents and/or political dwarves (?). 

[Josquius]

OK, I get you.

But so what if Macron wins big with crummy approval ratings.  If someone else had higher ratings they would face Frau Le Pen in the second round, not Macron.

It is a flaw in the system that super polarizing figures have an advantage in round 1. If you end up with a landslide because you have two candidates:

#1: 35% loves, 65% hates,
#2: 25% loves, 75% despises,

The system doesn't seem to be great.

If candidate #1 was more like 50-50 on the love hate spectrum that would be a better outcome, but the system is unchanged. This isn't just a problem with France: look at the recent elections in Peru, with a similar system. You ended up with basically a fascist versus a marxist in round 2.

It's not the ideal system no. AV would be much better.

But compared to simple FPTP? It does at least have a small safety measure in place.

[The Brain]

In the future we will probably be able to assemble a president from parts from the candidates, a respective percentage of each candidate.

[alfred russel]

Marine's program in 2017 read like a '70s left-wing party back to the future trip.

She is using her father's racist cred...it allows her to moderate the party's platform while keeping the voters (at least for now).

Wonder if it opens the door in the event someone like Mélenchon gets to round 2.