The EU thread

[The Minsky Moment]

Hope this is the right place for this piece of news:

Makes sense - when a heavyweight fight is interrupted by a drive by shooting that takes down both boxers, it's best to call time.

[The Larch]

Hope this is the right place for this piece of news:

Makes sense - when a heavyweight fight is interrupted by a drive by shooting that takes down both boxers, it's best to call time.

So, time to regroup against the Chinese? 

[Sheilbh]

So Germany and France want a reset of the relationship with Russia and re-launch the 27+1 meetings with Putin.

From the FT coverage and reporter's tweets below it doesn't sound like this involved much consultation with the rest of the 27:

Michael Peel
@Mikepeeljourno
A surprise Franco German push for the first EU summit with Russia since Moscow annexed Crimea in 2014 has laid bare internal divisions in the bloc. Two opponents of the move towards detente branded the idea "appalling" and "crazy".  https://ft.com/content/03528026-8fa1-4910-ab26-41cd26404439
It's not even five months since the Kremlin sought to humiliate EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell during a Moscow visit. But both Germany and France have long sought outreach to Russia. And Joe Biden's summit with Putin last week normalised the idea.

Henry Foy
@HenryJFoy
BIG scoop from FT's Brussels team - Merkel and Macron want to restart EU-Russia summits with Putin and the 27 leaders, as part of a surprise proposal for a new EU strategy of closer engagement with the Kremlin https://ft.com/content/03528026-8fa1-4910-ab26-41cd26404439
Surprise proposal sprung on the rest of the EU a day before talks on how to deal with Moscow is going down down like a cup of cold sick with eastern members and others arguing against rapprochement with the Kremlin. Also comes a day after Merkel and Putin held a phone call

And, as with the Chinese CAI (also pushed by Germany and France), it feels strangely rushed and seems to be getting push back by German and French foreign policy commentators.

The main queries they have are basically what is the purpose of the meeting - what do they want to achieve with Putin. But more widely have noted that if there's to be a European policy towards Russia it can't solely be shaped by Western European countries even if including CEE may be uncomfortable/de-rail your plans. I think both of those points are correct. I can't work out what the

One thing I wonder - with China too - is why Merkel is doing this now given that she'll be out of office shortly. It seems strange to be making these moves when you're a lame duck. Is it trying to sort of lay down tracks that bind her successor - or assuming it'll be Laschet will there have been consultation on this?

I get that France basically always wants to get closer to Russia - and I think there is something to the line that the British foreign policy establishment basically naive Turkophiles while the French foreign policy establishment is basically naive Russophiles - so that's normal

Not clear what it'll all mean yet - from Mehreen Khan:

Mehreen
@MehreenKhn
EU ambassadors tonight spent 90 mins (aptly) on draft #euco conclusions on Russia. Will be changes made before start of summit but will be up to leaders to decide how to tackle main sticking points on whether to retain list of areas for cooperation and possible Putin summitry Down pointing backhand index

After initial fury at timing of the Franco German ambush on Putin, more countries now willing to accept much beefier language on Russia than was planned only 24 hours ago. Leaders will thrash out specifics of paragraph 6 over dinner on Thursday.

[Sheilbh]

Benelux coming out really hard on Hungary and LGBT laws

Scott Beasley
@SkyScottBeasley
Real leadership in Europe: Netherlands Prime Minister says Hungary should no longer be in the EU following its anti-LGBT law

Mark Rutte: "For me, Hungary has no place in the EU anymore"
Rutte if they refuse to withdraw the legislation: "then as far as I am concerned, then there is nothing left for them in the EU"

"This is such a fundamental point, that if we let that go, we are nothing more than a trading block and a currency"
The EU is split on the issue- along broadly east/west and social conservative/liberal lines

As Rutte says: "But I'm not the only one to decide this: there are 26 other (EU countries). This has to be done step by step"
16 EU member states have today declared their support for defending LGBT rights. Though the letter below does not mention Hungary by name.
Rutte: "the long-term aim is to bring Hungary to its knees on this...They must realise they are part of the EU & this community of values, which means in Hungary...no one can be discriminated against & can feel free on grounds of sexuality, skin color, gender whatever"
Luxembourg's gay PM Bettel on the law: "I didn't get up one morning after having seen an advert on the TV of some brand... and say 'I'm gay'. That's not how life works. It's in me, I didn't chose it. And to accept oneself is hard enough. To be stigmatised too-that's too much."

I don't like the "bring Hungary to its knees" comments - but I find it very hard to disagree with anything Rutte's said here and it would also apply to Poland - and, in my view, it should also apply to other fundamentals such as the indepdendence of the judiciary and the freedom of the press.

Having said that I'm not sure - on a purely technical, legal basis - how this would work or what usefully can be done next.

I also wish this wasn't being presented as being against Hungary, and there was some way of showing solidarity with Hungarian liberals/opposition?

[Josquius]

I dunno, maybe it could be read that way for Hungarians? Better not vote for the current nutters if they wish to remain in Europe.

Really don't know how the EU could manage this though with vetos et al in place and there being several who see things Hungary's way.

[Sheilbh]

I dunno, maybe it could be read that way for Hungarians? Better not vote for the current nutters if they wish to remain in Europe.

Yeah I don't know, I worry that type of messaging works - too easy for Orban to generate an us v them view and it may be that a majority supports these measures in Hungary and a reasonably big minority in the rest of Europe that support them.

The video of Bettel is actually quite moving:
https://twitter.com/NaomiOhReally/status/1408003274356183041?s=20

Edit: I also slightly worry about needing to make clear that there's more to Hungary than Orban and his government, just like there's more to Russia than Putin or China than Xi or the UK than Johnson. And it's possible to really like Hungary etc even if you're opposing their government (I think about this a lot with coverage of Russia and China - I hate it when you get the sense that the reporter just doesn't like the country).

Edit: Obviously - practically I have no idea how to do that.

[Josquius]

Yeah I don't know, I worry that type of messaging works - too easy for Orban to generate an us v them view and it may be that a majority supports these measures in Hungary and a reasonably big minority in the rest of Europe that support them.

That seems fair enough to me though. If they decide despite the warning it means leaving the EU they still support this then thats them out of the EU.
If they change course then thats grand too.

[The Larch]

Aaah, Rutte once again showing the refinement of Dutch diplomacy... 

[Sheilbh]

Fair comment.

[Jacob]

Aaah, Rutte once again showing the refinement of Dutch diplomacy... 

Good cop, bad cop is something that works.

Sometimes you have to have the real talk and then you get back to "looking for alignment" and smoothing things over.

[Sheilbh]

It seems like the EUCO was quite explosive on the Franco-German proposal and other members successfully pushed back and ended up with a more hard-line statement  - which is probably good at least until it moves from being a Franco-German proposal to something with buy in from the countries bordering Russia:

EU leaders take hard line on Russia, rebuking Merkel and Macron
Poland and the Baltics lead effort to thwart German-French initiative.
By David M. Herszenhorn and Jacopo Barigazzi   
June 24, 2021 10:52 pm

EU leaders early Friday adopted a hardline stance toward Russia — but only after Poland and the Baltic countries took their own hardline stance toward Germany and France and torpedoed a proposal by the bloc's biggest powers to seek a summit with President Vladimir Putin.

The 27 heads of state and government adopted their tough conclusions on Russia at around 2 a.m. following a protracted and, at times, heated debate. The final result was remarkably humbling, if not utterly humiliating, for German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron, who normally exert the greatest sway in discussions around the European Council table.

Rather than endorsing the language proposed by Germany and France that would have floated the idea of "meetings at leaders level," akin to the one held by U.S. President Joe Biden with Putin in Geneva last week, the Council approved a statement focused on setting expectations and demands for the Kremlin, which would be a prerequisite for new diplomatic engagement. The Council also threatened new economic sanctions should Moscow persist in "malign, illegal and disruptive activity."

"The European Council expects the Russian leadership to demonstrate a more constructive engagement and political commitment and stop actions against the EU and its Member States, as well as against third countries," the leaders wrote in their conclusions.

The Council demanded that Russia "fully assume its responsibility" in ensuring the implementation of the Minsk 2 peace agreement to end the conflict in eastern Ukraine, and the leaders reiterated their support for pursuing "accountability" in the destruction of a Malaysian passenger jet that was shot down in 2014 with a Russian missile.

Rather than floating the idea of a high-level summit meeting, the leaders called on the European Commission and the EU's foreign policy chief to develop "concrete options including conditionalities and leverages" for further cooperation with Russia in various policy areas. "The European Council will explore formats and conditionalities of dialogue with Russia," they wrote.

Merkel, speaking to reporters at the end of the long night, bluntly conceded defeat, though she also made an implicit accusation that other leaders were not brave enough to back the summit proposal. "I personally would have wished for a more courageous step but this is also OK and we'll keep working," she said.

While the result marked a stunning victory over Germany and France by countries along the Russian border, the whole situation was a rather embarrassing episode for the EU, as deep divisions over relations with Russia burst into public view.

The summit, unexpectedly, turned out to be one of the most divisive gatherings of EU leaders in recent memory, as the Russia debate and another heated discussion, over Hungary's controversial anti-gay legislation, exposed deep rifts, roughly drawn between eastern and western countries.

Speaking to journalists after the meeting, Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo denied the discussion was West vs. East, noting that some Baltics and Eastern European countries supported the criticism of Budapest. And he added that now, "it's the first time there was really such an open almost confrontation between the large majority of the room with one member state."

However, in a sign of how fractious the debate over Russia had been, Council President Charles Michel canceled a planned late-night news conference with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

Merkel-Macron mystery

Merkel and Macron offered little explanation or justification for pushing the softer approach toward Putin just a day before the Council meeting, and their surprise effort clearly infuriated other leaders, who said there was no reason to ease any diplomatic pressure on Moscow.

A sense of competition with Biden seemed to be one factor, with Merkel insisting in a speech to the Bundestag on Thursday morning that if the U.S. president could hold a meeting with Putin, there was no reason EU leaders shouldn't do the same.

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda described the leaders' discussion as "tough" and said he was not persuaded that the EU should change its tough stance toward Moscow.

"It's too early because we so far don't see any radical changes of behavior," Nausėda said, adding that meeting Putin without preconditions "would be a very wrong signal."

Several critics of the German-French plan said they did not understand why Merkel and Macron had rushed ahead rather than waiting to see if Putin responds positively to Biden's suggestions of cooperation in some policy areas.

The reference in the leaders' conclusions to "third countries" and another reference to "ensuring coordination with partners" seemed to be nods to the U.S. and Biden's efforts to shift the dynamic between Russia and the West.

In response to a query from POLITICO, a U.S. State Department spokesperson on Thursday night suggested it would make sense to give Putin some time to respond to areas of potential cooperation that Biden identified during their conversation in Geneva.

"The United States has been clear that we and our partners must be prepared to continue to impose costs when Russia's behavior crosses boundaries that are respected by responsible nations. Our goal is to have a relationship with Russia that is predictable and stable," the spokesperson said. "There was a lot of ground covered at the June 16 Summit with Putin, but it is going to take some time to see if the areas of potential cooperation actually produce results."

The debate among EU leaders was difficult and at time impassioned.

But the EU countries located closest to Russia — such as Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania — ultimately succeeded not just in resisting heavy pressure from the EU's biggest and wealthiest powers but also in pushing their own stronger language setting demands for Moscow.

In a sign of the depth of their anger, they publicly lambasted the German-French plan on their way into the summit.

"Starting any direct dialogue on the highest political level is only possible in a situation where there's an actual de-escalation and actual withdrawal from the aggressive politics," Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said.

"It's an unequivocal situation for us. When we see hybrid attacks on our neighbors, on us," he continued, "it's difficult to start a dialogue on the highest level."

However, the disagreements were far deeper than a simple yes-no debate. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte took a middle tack, saying it was fine for the EU institutions to pursue a meeting with Putin but he himself wanted nothing to do with it.

"I don't mind a meeting with Vladimir Putin by the two presidents," Rutte said, referring to Council chief Michel and Commission President von der Leyen. But Rutte added, "I will not participate in a meeting with Vladimir Putin myself."

Meanwhile, countries that have long favored a conciliatory approach toward the Kremlin, including some with historic economic ties and a soft spot for Russian oligarchs and their money, cheered the German-French proposal.

"I'm very happy that there's finally movement in the direction of a dialogue with Russia," Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz told reporters.

This article has been updated.

Hans von der Burchard, Rym Momtaz, Marina Adami, Lili Bayer, Zosia Wanat and Andrew Gray contributed reporting.

In terms of motivations I found this bit from Macron (in another article), plus Merkel's comments possibly revealing:

"The aberration is that we are today the power that is the harshest with Russia, but they are our neighbors," Macron said. "We saw it a few weeks ago, President Biden met with President Putin, I said it to my friends around the table 'he didn't ask you for your opinion, and you, you watch him have a summit and it doesn't shock you?'"

I feel like, as with the Chinese deal, there is a general European desire for more strategic autonomy and it feels like Macron and Merkel are perhaps emphasisng to much the need for autonomous action without - from where I'm sitting - thinking too much about the strategic bit. Aside from showing that they are an actor independent of or sort of equal to the US - I can't really see what they are aiming to get out of this - but part of that is because they haven't consulted and explained it to other EU member states. I feel like that drove the strength of pushback.

Also I saw this from Toomas Ilves who is a liberal pro-European Estonian former foreign minister and President. I've never seen him post something like this before and I think it really underlies the depth of feeling in CEE, I think primarily at the lack of consultation or involvement - like they're still New Europe who should shut up and do as they're told: "Without even talking to other EU countries. Exactly like their forebears. I say that knowing full well what I say. We do not matter. Expendable. Worse, they actually believe they know better." He has since deleted the tweets but basically said CEE was still being treated on this as an "in between place", as opposed, I imagine, to core parts of Europe/the EU. It is striking from the UK that in relation to Brexit, Ireland was rightly central in developing EU priorities and policy on Brexit, while it's clear that states bordering Russia do not feel as central when it comes to Russia policy - it feels like a mistake.

[alfred russel]

Don't have a French thread - maybe we should in the run-up to the election?

No one can stop the macrononi.

[Duque de Bragança]

Don't have a French thread - maybe we should in the run-up to the election?

No one can stop the macrononi.

I'll set up tomorrow a poll about regional elections, before that.

[alfred russel]

The French voting system is tragically flawed for this precise moment. Le Pen is leading in a bunch of polls and seems destined to be first or second with her consistent 25-30% of voters, while Macron may be unpopular overall but has a base level of support. In an open field the power of the incumbency should go far. Of course anyone who is up against Le Pen in Round 2 will be a prohibitive favorite.

A ton can happen in the next year and I certainly wouldn't say that is a lock to happen, but it seems the most likely way for things to play out.

[Josquius]

It's a problem yes. But it beats the norm where getting 30% can give you overall victory.