Italian Politics

[Sheilbh]

So I only started this thread because I need to share this NYT piece about Renzi. I don't think I've ever seen such an amazing interview with a politician or this level of self-regard for a man leading a party that's polling at 3% - and that's after 4 years of Trump:

Renzi's Power Play Is a 'Masterpiece.' He'll Be the First to Tell You.
With a series of maneuvers that could have made Machiavelli blush, the former prime minister gave Italy a new government. Just don't expect anyone to thank him for it.


"This was my strategy," said Matteo Renzi, center, who brought down Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte and cleared a path for the former central banker Mario Draghi to replace him.Credit...Alessandra Tarantino/Associated Press
By Jason Horowitz
    Feb. 9, 2021

ROME — When Matteo Renzi, the former Italian prime minister currently polling at about 3 percent, triggered the collapse of the Italian government last month, he became the target of near universal opprobrium and bewilderment for plunging the country into political chaos in the middle of a pandemic.

Now he is taking a victory lap.

Mr. Renzi's gambit not only caused the fall of a prime minister and government he had excoriated as dangerously incompetent. It also resulted in a stunning upgrade that has led Mario Draghi, a titan of Europe largely credited with saving the euro, to assemble a broad national unity government, which is expected to take shape this week.

In Europe, Mr. Draghi's renown has immediately increased Italy's stature and credibility in absorbing and spending a huge relief package that could determine the future of both Italy and the European Union. At home, the gravity of Mr. Draghi's arrival has reordered the Italian political landscape and undercut Mr. Renzi's populist enemies.

"This was my strategy. I did it all alone, with 3 percent!" said Mr. Renzi, a onetime mayor of Florence who is not bashful about his ability to work the levers of power and outmaneuver the competition. "It's all a game of parliamentary tactics. And let's say that working for five years in the palace where Machiavelli worked helped a little."

Admirers of Mr. Renzi have marveled at his magic trick, in which he somehow created the conditions for Italy's president, Sergio Mattarella, to pull Mr. Draghi's name out of a hat. They have looked to Mr. Draghi — who as European Central Bank president famously said he would do "whatever it takes" to save the euro — as a savior after three years of Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte.

"The choice belongs to President Sergio Mattarella, the credit belongs to Matteo Renzi and his whatever it takes," wrote Christian Rocca, the editor of Linkiesta, a pro-European and anti-populist publication.


The arrival of Mr. Draghi, center, has immediately increased Italy's stature and credibility in absorbing and spending a huge European relief package.Credit...Angelo Carconi/EPA, via Shutterstock

Mr. Renzi's fans talk about how he did the dirty work, tacitly desired by various political forces, to remove Mr. Conte. By doing so, they say, he at least temporarily brought down the curtain on a period of populist politics, ushered in by the anti-establishment Five Star Movement and the nationalist League party of Matteo Salvini.

But the most effusive praise of Mr. Renzi may come from Mr. Renzi.

"It's a masterpiece of Italian politics," he said of the events that brought Mr. Draghi to Rome.

Mr. Renzi's narcissism and naked ambition have made him insufferable to many Italians.

"Renzi remains the problem," said Gianfranco Pasquino, an emeritus professor of political science at the University of Bologna. Mr. Renzi's insatiable need for attention was "the one constant" in Italian politics, he said.

Love him or hate him — and many now fall into the latter category — what is hard to dispute is that Mr. Renzi is Italy's premier political operator, one who doesn't pass up on a political opportunity, raging virus or no raging virus.

"Why now? Why now? Why now?" Mr. Renzi said even his friends asked him as he pulled the plug just as Italy began its vaccine rollout. But he said the pandemic put in terrifying focus the risk of staying on the same course, especially as the country had to decide what to do with more than 200 billion euros in European relief funds. "If we didn't do it during the pandemic, we would have never done it."

Mr. Renzi has had practice in this sort of thing.

In 2014, he infamously tweeted that the prime minister, from his own party, should "be serene," and then took his job. The "demolition man" of Italian politics, as he was called, seemed unstoppable.

But in 2016, Mr. Renzi bet his office and ambitious reform agenda on a referendum to change the Italian Constitution, and all of his enemies aligned against him. He lost, resigned and promised to quit politics. Instead he stayed on as leader of the center-left Democratic Party.

That foothold mattered. In 2018, Five Star had the strongest showing in national elections, but lacked enough support to form a government on its own. It wooed the Democratic Party but Mr. Renzi wouldn't allow the marriage. Instead, Five Star joined with the nationalists of Mr. Salvini's League, forming an aggressively anti-European coalition. They chose Mr. Conte as their prime minister.

Mr. Renzi seemed yesterday's news. But in 2019, Mr. Salvini, surging in popularity, jettisoned the coalition, seeking to prompt elections and grab what he called "full powers." That's when Mr. Renzi struck. He reversed himself and forged an alliance between his party and Five Star, icing Mr. Salvini out into the opposition.

To increase his leverage in the new government, Mr. Renzi formed a new party, Italia Viva, which had just enough support to force Mr. Conte to rely on him for the government's survival. Mr. Renzi hoped his party's support would grow. It shrank.[/b]

In the meantime, Mr. Conte led Italy through the early months of the pandemic. His popularity skyrocketed and ate into the centrist atmosphere where Mr. Renzi's future ambitions resided. He took Mr. Renzi's support for granted. Always a mistake.

In January, as Covid-19 deaths racked up, curfews fell and economic frustration mounted, Mr. Renzi made a move that many considered unthinkable.

But even as many chalked up his felling of the government to a craven attempt to win more cabinet positions and influence, they acknowledged Mr. Renzi had some strong critiques on his side.

He blamed the government for failing to reform a glacial justice system that scared away outside investment. He criticized the government for a lack of vision in spending hundreds of billions of euros in European relief money. He demanded that Italy apply for up to €36 billion in cheap E.U. loans earmarked for health systems.

It was a poison pill, as populists in Mr. Conte's base of support in Five Star would never stomach giving Brussels too much power. The government fell, but Mr. Conte seemed confident he could replace Mr. Renzi's support with other lawmakers. Mr. Renzi told him good luck.

Mr. Conte became increasingly desperate and offered Mr. Renzi "a ton" of cabinet posts to join the government again, Mr. Renzi recounted. Instead, he strung Mr. Conte along and then, at the last minute, when he was convinced Mr. Draghi would come in, walked.

Mr. Renzi said his near rock-bottom popularity "absolutely" gave him the freedom to maneuver because instead of fearing losing support, "I was worried about losing the opportunity."

Days later Mr. Mattarella summoned Mr. Draghi.

That game of chicken played out in public. The question is: Did Mr. Renzi play a role behind closed doors in striking alliances to bring Mr. Draghi in?

Mr. Renzi said it was always his tacit desire to replace Mr. Conte with Mr. Draghi, whom he said he spoke to often about Italy's economic situation, including during the crisis. But he insisted that Mr. Draghi "never spoke to me" about getting into the position. Asked whether he, Mr. Renzi, had spoken to Mr. Draghi about such an outcome, Mr. Renzi replied, "Next question."

"I didn't do anything, it was all Mattarella. Smile emoji," Mr. Renzi said mischievously, adding that out of all the political maneuvers he had made over his career, "This operation was the hardest."

Tellingly, Mr. Renzi's once adamant call for the loans from Europe has softened.

Asked whether Italy would take the loan under Mr. Draghi, he said, "Could be. Draghi will decide."

What was important is that Mr. Draghi had arrived. Five Star, already shrinking, risks implosion as its hard-core populists refuse to join Mr. Draghi while others flock to him. Mr. Salvini, whose northern base of businessmen is excited by Mr. Draghi, has to moderate, essentially tossing years of anti-Brussels demagogy down the drain.

Mr. Renzi will not have the leverage to hold the large coalition hostage, and he will have nowhere near as many cabinet slots as Conte offered him. Instead, he gets time and a new political tailwind that might blow him somewhere better.

In the meantime, Mr. Conte gave a news conference last week behind a desk in the middle of a square, looking as if he was soliciting passers-by to sign a petition.

Mr. Renzi said Mr. Conte, like Mr. Salvini before him, had gotten ahead of himself.

"Now," he said. "Game over."

Jason Horowitz is the Rome bureau chief, covering Italy, the Vatican, Greece and other parts of Southern Europe. He previously covered the 2016 presidential campaign, the Obama administration and Congress, with an emphasis on political profiles and features. @jasondhorowitz

"Smile emoji."

Meanwhile Renzi got what he wanted but I don't see how this improves his position. Also I think Meloni will be able to take full advantage of being the lead opposition to this government and Salvini may regret joining (and flounce out at some time) and the PD are irrelevant and taken for granted by everyone.

But I love that piece.

[Admiral Yi]

"We are a failed state, but we dress well."

[The Larch]

If there's something Renzi never lacked, it's self-esteem. 

Edit: Now that I've read the article, I think it vastly overplays Renzi's role in the arrival of Draghi. Seems a bit like Renzi is trying to spin this into a "this was my plan all along, I assure you" kind of message. Sure, he toppled Conte (he has experience with that, he already toppled Letta back in the day, and he was from his same party), but that's where his influence in the whole thing ended.

[Sheilbh]

If there's something Renzi never lacked, it's self-esteem. 

Edit: Now that I've read the article, I think it vastly overplays Renzi's role in the arrival of Draghi. Seems a bit like Renzi is trying to spin this into a "this was my plan all along, I assure you" kind of message. Sure, he toppled Conte (he has experience with that, he already toppled Letta back in the day, and he was from his same party), but that's where his influence in the whole thing ended.

I just love the elegant knifing of:
"But the most effusive praise of Mr. Renzi may come from Mr. Renzi."

"We are a failed state, but we dress well."

Italy's an astonishingly successful state. It keeps going, stays relatively well-off and comfortable despite all of the nonsense.

[The Larch]

Italian politics is just a background show for Italian life, its effect in the real life of people is relatively small. 

Now seriously, the country chugs along fine, but disfunction only keeps growing over time.

[PJL]

The main barometer of how well Italy is doing is, do the trains run on time? 

[The Larch]

The main barometer of how well Italy is doing is, do the trains run on time?

The Italian rail network is surprisingly well run and efficient, actually.

[The Brain]

The main barometer of how well Italy is doing is, do the trains run on time? 

No, they run on hand gestures.

[Sheilbh]

Italian politics is just a background show for Italian life, its effect in the real life of people is relatively small. 

Now seriously, the country chugs along fine, but disfunction only keeps growing over time.

Yeah I mean their entire political party system collapsed following a massive corruption scandal, former PMs had to flee to North African dictatorships with their riches to escape prosecution, the party system had to be re-founded and one of the leaders in re-founding it was Silvio Berlusconi (and it is maybe re-aligning again for President Berlusconi). And yet the country kept on chugging on as you say.

It's remarkable.

[The Larch]

I wouldn't count on Berlusconi becoming president.

[Duque de Bragança]

Italian politics is just a background show for Italian life, its effect in the real life of people is relatively small. 

Now seriously, the country chugs along fine, but disfunction only keeps growing over time.

Yeah I mean their entire political party system collapsed following a massive corruption scandal, former PMs had to flee to North African dictatorships with their riches to escape prosecution, the party system had to be re-founded and one of the leaders in re-founding it was Silvio Berlusconi (and it is maybe re-aligning again for President Berlusconi). And yet the country kept on chugging on as you say.

It's remarkable.

North African dictatorship? Now, now... While Ben Ali's Tunisia was hardly a model compared to Western democracies but was definitively very progressive for the area.

[Maladict]

North African dictatorship? Now, now... While Ben Ali's Tunisia was hardly a model compared to Western democracies but was definitively very progressive for the area.

Anyone who wins >90% of the popular vote is a dictator.

[Sheilbh]

I wouldn't count on Berlusconi becoming president.

No. But he seems one step closer now - I think he was little bit of a kingmaker here as the first force on the right to break for Draghi. He's like a right-Renzi in terms of being electorally wrecked but still playing the game. I think with more success and, stunningly, humility than Renzi

Anyone who wins >90% of the popular vote is a dictator.

Yeah being "progressive" doesn't mean anything about whether you're a dictator or not. There's been loads of "progressive" dictators.

[The Larch]

I wouldn't count on Berlusconi becoming president.

No. But he seems one step closer now - I think he was little bit of a kingmaker here as the first force on the right to break for Draghi. He's like a right-Renzi in terms of being electorally wrecked but still playing the game. I think with more success and, stunningly, humility than Renzi

Thing is, the President of Italy needs to be elected by two-thirds of the joint parliament+senate+regional representatives electoral college, so it needs to be an uncontroversial figure of consensus. Berlusconi will never be that.

[Sheilbh]

Thing is, the President of Italy needs to be elected by two-thirds of the joint parliament+senate+regional representatives electoral college, so it needs to be an uncontroversial figure of consensus. Berlusconi will never be that.

Fair point - although I wonder if there were an election in the next 4 months. I think that would be under the new smaller Senate/parliament numbers and that Lega+FdI+FI would win handily plus they've been winning quite a lot of regions from the PD in recent years. All of which could make it unpredictable.

As a podcast I listened to earlier in the week put it the overriding objective for Italian politicians right now is to avoid another election because they don't want a repeat of 2018 (but with a right-populist coalition winning) and all that could lead to. But on a practical level the number of seats is being halved so it's in politicians' self-interest right now to make sure there's not an election