Italian Politics

[Sheilbh]

Are the dark blue folks compromised by Putin?

Blue is the right-wing coalition. Dark or light is just how strong the prediciton is.

In terms of compromised by Putin it really depends on what we mean by "compromised". That coalition goes from Berlusconi (and can anyone, even Putin, truly say they've compromised Berlusconi - I think he'll just do whatever is in his interest and possibly have compromised you on the way), through Salvini (more compromised) to Meloni and the post-fascist FdI.

In a way I think it's gone the other way - I think Meloni has used support for Ukraine and the EU to make her party more respectable, especially to the Italian elite and President. She's been very vocally pro-Ukraine and reassuring about Italy's international position with the EU and Atlantic alliance. As I say I think it's actually been a way of legitimising a party that is literally descended from the Italian Social Movement (and still has the tricolour flame in their logo) as a normal, mainstream Atlanticist, pro-European force and nothing to worry about.

Having said that I think if there was a "European" move for peace/concern around energy prices I wouldn't be surprised if the FdI joined in as long as it didn't isolate them and Italy in a way that would alarm the President and Italian elite.

Plus my guess - and I could be totally wrong - is that the FdI have learned from the Lega/M5S attempt to form a government when they tried to appoint a Finance Minister who was sceptical of the Euro which was vetoed by the President and ultimately led to the creation of Conte's government as the President wanted a more technocratic leadership that wouldn't threaten Italy's international position, especially with the EU. Given that, my guess (and it is just that) is that the government of the right will focus on domestic issues and not move Italy very far from the European average - at least to begin with. A bit like Orban built a base of support in Hungary but was pretty emollient abroad, before moving to a more confrontational stance once his domestic support was secured.

[Valmy]

Why do the Italian cities have so few seats? Is Italy an incredibly rural country or something?

[Sheilbh]

I think it's more the fairly common European thing that the actual "city" is often quite small. So Milan there looks to me like Milan and not the metropolitan city and certainly not the wider metropolitan area. For comparison Milan itself is about 70 square miles and the metropolitan city is almost ten times that size. It only has three seats but look at all the tiny constituencies around it.

And also Italy, again like most European countries, is fairly densely populated with lots of towns etc all through the country. Looking at US states for comparison - Italy is somewhere between Maryland and Delaware, so even rural areas are relatively populated.

Edit: Plus that's only the four biggest cities - not shown are all the other ones: Bologna, Palermo, Florence, Genoa etc.

[Valmy]

Ah so the usual political urban rural divide is really just a tiny city center vs everything else? It is just weird seeing the cities being more on the left but representing just a tiny percentage of the population. The overwhelming majority of the city of Milan is aligned with the Sicilian countryside? Crazy.

[Sheilbh]

Ah so the usual political urban rural divide is really just a tiny city center vs everything else? It is just weird seeing the cities being more on the left but representing just a tiny percentage of the population. The overwhelming majority of the city of Milan is aligned with the Sicilian countryside? Crazy.

Plus the hollowing out of traditional European social democratic parties/parties of the left - this is from the election 20 years ago (when they had more constituencies):


My understanding is that in Italy the South and the North have historically always voted for the right/Christian Democrats - and it's the centre that voted for the left. It got re-jigged about which parties were elected with the collapse of the old party system - and then with Lega, M5S etc.

The slightly amazing thing is that Lega have moved to a point of having pretty decent support in the south given they started as almost racist towards Southern Italians. There's a meme I can't find of Lega's politics (welfare chauvinism, anti-immigration etc) going from Lega Padania to Lega Nord to Lega and in the future to Lega Europa But in this election with the coalition of the right I'm not sure where their strengths are I'd guess Lega are still stronger in the North?

[The Larch]

I think it's more the fairly common European thing that the actual "city" is often quite small. So Milan there looks to me like Milan and not the metropolitan city and certainly not the wider metropolitan area. For comparison Milan itself is about 70 square miles and the metropolitan city is almost ten times that size. It only has three seats but look at all the tiny constituencies around it.

And also Italy, again like most European countries, is fairly densely populated with lots of towns etc all through the country. Looking at US states for comparison - Italy is somewhere between Maryland and Delaware, so even rural areas are relatively populated.

Edit: Plus that's only the four biggest cities - not shown are all the other ones: Bologna, Palermo, Florence, Genoa etc.

It also has to be taken into account that what is now officially called "Metropolitan city" in Italian official nomenclature corresponds to what in previous regional arrangements were full provinces, so it goes beyond what the city and its environs cover. For instance, the "Metropolitan city of Rome" covers what was formally the "Province of Rome", and includes Rome itself and something like 100 other municipalities.

Ah so the usual political urban rural divide is really just a tiny city center vs everything else? It is just weird seeing the cities being more on the left but representing just a tiny percentage of the population. The overwhelming majority of the city of Milan is aligned with the Sicilian countryside? Crazy.

Take into account that the blue colour represents the right wing alliance, which includes several different parties, so in Milan it will be the Lega the one getting the votes, and in Sicily it'll be somebody else like FdI. They are not voting for exactly the same thing.

[The Larch]

My understanding is that in Italy the South and the North have historically always voted for the right/Christian Democrats - and it's the centre that voted for the left. It got re-jigged about which parties were elected with the collapse of the old party system - and then with Lega, M5S etc.

Historically the regions where the Italian left was strongest were the Emilia Romagna and Tuscany, which are both very industrial and heavily populated. Both have been continuosly ruled by the left since 1970, when the current Italian regional arrangement started. Lazio is also a bit of a stronghold, but has actually changed hands with the right at several points.

The Italian right is indeed stronger in the North (mostly Lombardy and Veneto, Piedmont is actually a battleground region) and used to be so as well in the South (Sicily has always been won by the right), but in recent years it has a weaker grip. IIRC when M5S started out it actually got its best results in Southern Italy. Who M5S gets replaced by in Southern Italy will be a big factor.

The slightly amazing thing is that Lega have moved to a point of having pretty decent support in the south given they started as almost racist towards Southern Italians. There's a meme I can't find of Lega's politics (welfare chauvinism, anti-immigration etc) going from Lega Padania to Lega Nord to Lega and in the future to Lega Europa But in this election with the coalition of the right I'm not sure where their strengths are I'd guess Lega are still stronger in the North?

Even if the Lega got some decent results in Southern Italy, their main strongholds continue to be in the North (it's the largest party in every single Northern Italian region). Their results in the South, even if not dismal, are not enough to change the party's balance and replace their Northern roots, and they're marginal in the larger Southern regions like Campania and Sicily. Where they've managed to establish themselves is in the poorer regions of Central Italy, where they now rule in Umbria, which had been a traditionally left wing stronghold, and are second in the Marche.

[The Minsky Moment]

Massive short position building up in Italian govt bonds.

[Sheilbh]

I was wondering if Berlusconi would perhaps offer himself (nobly, selflessly) to Lega and FdI as a potential PM. He's done the job before without blowing up Italy's international position so he's not a risk like Salvini or Meloni would be.

And then I see this


On the other hand - looking back at the last 20 years: is that wrong?

[The Larch]

And then I see this

I'd say it's just because he's the only clear right wing PM of that time, the rest are all either left wingers or technocrats.

On the other hand - looking back at the last 20 years: is that wrong?

I'd say Berlusconi is overrated, Prodi and Monti underrated, and who the hell are the 4% who picked Renzi.

[Sheilbh]

Seat projections for the lower house:


And Senate:


Just a disaster for the left - well for everyone but the right

[mongers]

I heard that recently Italy as spent around 100 Billion Euros building up it's Winter gas stockpile, in the same period of normal year, that amount would have cost 12 billion Euros!

[The Larch]

Meloni keeps mellowing.

Far-right favourite to be Italy's next PM softens on EU as election looms
Giorgia Meloni once railed against Brussels, but experts suggest likely successor to Mario Draghi has no interest in rocking boat

At a gathering of Europe's far right in February 2020, the leader of the Brothers of Italy, Giorgia Meloni, railed against the "Brussels techno bureaucrats" who she said wanted to impose "the Soviet plan to destroy national and religious identities" – a typically bombastic claim of Eurosceptic nationalists.

Now, on the brink of becoming Italy's first far-right prime minister, Meloni is sounding a rather different tune.

In an opinion article for Il Messaggero newspaper last month, Meloni said she wanted to work "in compliance with European regulations and in agreement with the [European] Commission" to use EU resources to promote Italy's growth and innovation – a line so conventional it could drop into the speech of any aspiring pro-EU technocrat.


Speaking in a video message broadcast in English, French and Spanish, she hit back at the "absurd narrative" her party would jeopardise Italy's access to €191.5bn (£166bn) in EU Covid recovery funds.

Meloni, who has sought to distance the Brothers of Italy from its fascist origins, said her party shared "values and experiences" with British Conservatives, US Republicans and Israel's Likud party.

While Brussels worried over Italy's 2018 election that brought the populist Five Star Movement and Matteo Salvini's hardline League to power, EU officials are less anxious about a Meloni-led rightwing coalition expected to unite her Brothers of Italy with Salvini's party and Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia.

Since that far-right gathering in 2020, Europe's political landscape has been upended by coronavirus that left Italy with the highest death toll of all EU nations. Under the outgoing prime minister, Mario Draghi, Italy secured the largest share of funds from the EU's €750bn Covid recovery programme. Over a six-year period, Rome will get €191.5bn for policies such as bringing ultra-fast broadband to the whole country and funding 265,000 childcare places for children under six.

The anchor of the EU funding is even more important, with Italian growth set to slow sharply in 2023 as high energy prices weigh on the economy. Meanwhile investors are jittery about what Draghi's departure means for the stability of the eurozone's third largest economy.

"Some Italian commentators say that there is no stronger supporter of Draghi's policies right now than Meloni," said Lorenzo Codogno, a former director of the treasury department at Italy's finance ministry. "She has no interest in blowing up the situation right now."

While Meloni has pledged to modify Italy's recovery programme, she is not expected to seek radical changes, which the European Commission has already ruled out. The EU executive is open to modest tinkering to national recovery plans to reflect the new demand to phase out Russian fossil fuels, but has vetoed any root-and-branch renegotiation.

"She has to put her flag on the programme at the end of the day," said Codogno, now a visiting professor at the London School of Economics. "But whether this will really change the substance of the programme, I doubt ... it's in nobody's interest to undermine the possibility of getting European money."

Meloni is expected to appoint a technocrat as finance minister, such as the current incumbent, former central banker Daniele Franco. On foreign policy, she is advised by a veteran insider, the career diplomat and former foreign minister, Giulio Terzi di Sant'Agata. And she is said to be getting counsel from "Super" Mario – Draghi, the epitome of the EU establishment.

"It is fairly well known that there has been a direct line between the two so there is a lot of mentoring going on," said Nathalie Tocci, director of the Institute for International Affairs in Rome. Tocci said Italy's institutions, symbolised by Draghi himself, were "try[ing] to ensure that the Italian ship remains steady despite all of the political turmoil".

With energy bills rocketing, Tocci does not think Meloni has room to express her Eurosceptic nationalism.

"We are basically in the midst of a crisis that she herself recognises does not have a national solution," said Tocci, referring to Meloni's support for EU-wide energy price caps. "Although she is a nationalist, although she is a Eurosceptic, she understands that this is a crisis that needs European solutions."

Meloni, a pro-Nato Atlanticist, has been unequivocal in condemning Russia's invasion and supporting the dispatch of weapons to Ukraine. Her coalition government is not expected to block EU sanctions, despite the presence of Salvini, who once posed in a T-shirt emblazoned with Vladimir Putin's face and recently claimed the restrictive measures against Russia are "bringing Europe and Italy to their knees".

Luigi Scazzieri at the Centre for European Reform points out that the League-Five Star government never vetoed EU sanctions against Russia. He does not think that will change under Italy's likely next government: "In terms of sabotaging western unity ... that's not going to happen.

Some EU supporters are less sanguine about a Meloni government.

"Meloni, just like other far-right populist leaders, has learned from the example of the UK and the chaos that leaving the EU has caused," said Petros Fassoulas, the secretary-general of European Movement International.

"Their intention isn't so much to attack the EU; their intention is to take over from within and transform it into something closer to their ideas – a nightmare for all of us here in Brussels."

He sees conflict between Meloni and the rest of the EU over migration. The Brothers of Italy want the navy to turn away migrant boats. In an EU increasingly pre-occupied by border security, Meloni's faction is far from alone in seeking to prevent asylum seekers reaching Europe's borders.

A government anxious to preserve EU cashflows, while keeping out migrants and asylum seekers is not exceptional in the EU. Meloni is allied to the governing nationalist right in Poland and the far-right Sweden Democrats, who belong to the European Conservatives and Reformists group that she has led since 2020.

The success of the Sweden Democrats, who won second place in last week's elections, making them potential kingmakers in shaping Sweden's government, is another fillip for Europe's nationalist union.

Fassoulas believes the rise of the nationalist Eurosceptic right will be destabilising. "It is easy to deal with one, but when you have two or three illiberal or far-right leaders within the European Council [of EU leaders] the process becomes much more cumbersome."

She's moving so fast towards the center that she might end up being dissed as a communist by former allies. 

[The Larch]

On a different note, I recently read somewhere that even if the right wing bloc wins these next elections, the resulting government might very well be short lived, because apparently there are rising internal tensions between, mostly the Lega and FdI, as FdI, who are the rising stars of the coalition, are actually eating away at the Lega's share of the votes in their heartland, so the Lega is feeling somehow threatened and it is well known that they're very experienced coalition-breakers.

[Sheilbh]

You need someone to hold together a fissiparious right-wing coalition and get Lega to serve a full term you say....





Edit: Total aside but every recent picture I see of Berlusconi and he looks like Max Headroom. It's like a human has decided to travel the uncanny valley.