Quo Vadis GOP?

[Admiral Yi]

Fair.

Replace "forget" with "allow the Republicans to successfully distance themselves from the event".

That's very much an eye of the beholder kind of claim.

[Oexmelin]

It is the continuing discord that will cause any "empathy", other than on the part of the truly deluded, to dry up. At least, that's the theory.

I don't subscribe to this theory. The Nazis caused much of the very discord and disturbances they promised to solve.

In general, I do not subscribe to mechanistic theories that "crossing a line" suddenly inspires political feelings in decent people. For Americans not to forget about the Capitol, people need to loudly assert, and repeat, just how much of a big deal it is.

[Eddie Teach]

I think Trump's audience will suffer greatly once the networks stop giving him oxygen and he can't get other people to pay for his rallies.

[Malthus]

It is the continuing discord that will cause any "empathy", other than on the part of the truly deluded, to dry up. At least, that's the theory.

I don't subscribe to this theory. The Nazis caused much of the very discord and disturbances they promised to solve.

The Nazis were far better organized than this crowd, and the surrounding circumstances were considerably different. I do not believe that any historical parallel will prove exact.

In general, I do not subscribe to mechanistic theories that "crossing a line" suddenly inspires political feelings in decent people. For Americans not to forget about the Capitol, people need to loudly assert, and repeat, just how much of a big deal it is.

My proposal is not concerning a sudden crossing of a line inspiring moral revulsion. It concerns a continuing and repeated state of crisis which establishes a narrative.

If the event was singular and not repeated, the Republicans probably *would* eventually be able to distance themselves, and repeated harping on their complicity could lead to fatigue with the issue - that the Republicans could turn to their advantage.

Point being that the Trumpites *will not stop*, and this very fact may prove the downfall of the Republican Party.

[Oexmelin]

The Nazis were far better organized than this crowd, and the surrounding circumstances were considerably different. I do not believe that any historical parallel will prove exact.

That's historical hindsight. The Nazis were a bunch of loser thugs in 1923. We are not on the brink of a Nazi takeover. We are living during a testing phase. And no, historical precedent is never useful if the point is to establish exact analog. It's useful to help us think. And I think the 20s and 30s have much to help us think with, which I think beats handily the opposite, which is to think our times to be utterly unthinkable until shit happens. And perhaps because I am a historian of France, I think France in the 30s have more to teach us than Germany in that regard.

In any case, my point is that the Republicans may not even wish to distance themselves too much from the event. I think we differ in our evaluation of how much revulsion it inspires, especially amongst conservatives.

[jimmy olsen]

A lot of companies are cutting off money to those representatives and senators who voted to object to the EC votes permanently.

That's what's going to get a reaction from the party, not any moralizing.

[Admiral Yi]

Someone hasn't been reading the thread.

[Sophie Scholl]

I do not believe Americans are going to forget the storming of the Capitol.

It is already being spun by the Right as an antifa/BLM joint efforts financed by Soros and filled with crisis actors, like the QAnon woman who was killed. Other groups on the Right are still considering them all Patriots and Ashli Babbit a martyr, so... who the heck knows what their final narrative will be other than divorced from reality. I don't think anyone will forget it, but it will be viewed very differently by different groups.

[jimmy olsen]

There's a chance there might be a full on civil war battle next week.

https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5ffd29a4c5b691806c4bf199/amp?cte=&__twitter_impression=true

WASHINGTON ― Capitol Police briefed Democrats on Monday night about three more potentially gruesome demonstrations planned in the coming days, with one plot to encircle the U.S. Capitol and assassinate Democrats and some Republicans.

On a private call Monday night, new leaders of the Capitol Police told House Democrats they were closely monitoring three separate plans that could pose serious threats to members of Congress as Washington prepares for Democrat Joe Biden's presidential inauguration on Jan. 20.

The first is a demonstration billed as the "largest armed protest ever to take place on American soil."

Another is a protest in honor of Ashli Babbitt, the woman killed while trying to climb into the Speaker's Lobby during Wednesday's pro-Trump siege of the Capitol.


And another demonstration, which three members said was by far the most concerning plot, would involve insurrectionists forming a perimeter around the Capitol, the White House and the Supreme Court, and then blocking Democrats from entering the Capitol ― perhaps even killing them ― so that Republicans could take control of the government.

The members of Congress whom HuffPost spoke to Monday night were extremely concerned by the call.

"It was pretty overwhelming," one member said.


Officials on the call warned lawmakers about sharing too much information with the media, saying that divulging specific dates, times and countermeasures could aid the organizers of the plots. HuffPost is not disclosing certain information, such as who appears to be organizing these plots and when they are to take place.

One member was explicit that these groups were trying to get journalists to report on their demonstrations.

"Some of their main communications to organize these have been cut off, so they're purposely trying to get the media to report on this as a way to further disseminate information and to attract additional support for their attacks," this member said.

Democrats were told that the Capitol Police and the National Guard were preparing for potentially tens of thousands of armed protesters coming to Washington and were establishing rules of engagement for warfare. In general, the military and police don't plan to shoot anyone until one of the rioters fires, but there could be exceptions.

Lawmakers were told that the plot to encircle the Capitol also included plans to surround the White House ― so that no one could harm Trump ― and the Supreme Court, simply to shut down the courts. The plan to surround the Capitol includes assassinating Democrats as well as Republicans who didn't support Trump's effort to overturn the election ― and allowing other Republicans to enter the building and control government.

All of these plots may never materialize. The Capitol Police have established a new perimeter with fencing and razor wire, and the National Guard has already been called in to help protect the Capitol and lawmakers.

But while Capitol Police assured members they were prepared for these terrorist plots, there was obvious concern from a number of lawmakers.

One topic of discussion was the need to put every member of Congress through a metal detector before the inauguration. A member on the call told HuffPost that there was an "eyes-wide-open realization" that Capitol Police needed to take precautions against "all these members who were in league with the insurrectionists who love to carry their guns."


"You can't just let them bypass security and walk right up to [Joe] Biden and [Kamala] Harris at inauguration," this lawmaker told HuffPost.

Another area of concern was the Trump administration's involvement in tamping down an insurrection. "I don't think anyone has confidence that the folks at the Pentagon, that may or may not even be needed for some of this, or the Department of Homeland Security, where we don't even know who's in charge, are going to be cooperative," one member told HuffPost.

One Democrat on the call also raised the issue of security for members coming from their residences to the Capitol, as well as traveling to Washington, given recent confrontations at airports and on flights between some protesters and lawmakers. One member who spoke to HuffPost said the Capitol Police didn't have a satisfactory answer about that concern.

This member mentioned how the briefing had underscored the wisdom of Twitter suspending Trump's account, as well as tens of thousands of accounts associated with the right-wing conspiracy theory QAnon, and said the decision to cut off the social media platform Parler "looked a lot smarter" given the efforts to recruit armed extremists to come to the nation's capital in the coming days.

"It's a decision that might ultimately save lives," this member said.

One of the lawmakers who spoke to HuffPost said members of Congress were all experiencing difficult reactions to the storming of the Capitol last week.

"Most of us are feeling that," this Democrat said. "But we are also feeling that we don't have time to indulge too much of it, that this is not about us, that it's about a job that's way bigger than us, and we are just going to suck it up and get through, and we'll talk about how nutty it is on the other side."

Amanda Terkel and Jennifer Bendery contributed to this report.

[Josquius]

Makes electing elderly Joe Biden seem a smart move really.... Seriously brave guy.. Fingers crossed the cultists follow the usual pattern of white extremists and are inept.

[Admiral Yi]

It is already being spun by the Right as an antifa/BLM joint efforts financed by Soros and filled with crisis actors, like the QAnon woman who was killed. Other groups on the Right are still considering them all Patriots and Ashli Babbit a martyr, so... who the heck knows what their final narrative will be other than divorced from reality. I don't think anyone will forget it, but it will be viewed very differently by different groups.

That narrative is what the upcoming fight within the Republican party is going to be about.  That's why I praise people like Mitch McConnell for standing up to that narrative and fighting for a party that believes in the law while everyone else is calling him an enabler piece of shit.  Who wins this fight is important for the future of this country.  There's a hell of a bigger chance the loons listen to fellow Republicans than Democrats or the mainstream media.

The first salvo has already been fired.  That one poll Shelf linked shows 80% of Republicans disapprove of the Capitol assault.  That will make the loons feel isolated.

[Malthus]

The Nazis were far better organized than this crowd, and the surrounding circumstances were considerably different. I do not believe that any historical parallel will prove exact.

That's historical hindsight. The Nazis were a bunch of loser thugs in 1923. We are not on the brink of a Nazi takeover. We are living during a testing phase. And no, historical precedent is never useful if the point is to establish exact analog. It's useful to help us think. And I think the 20s and 30s have much to help us think with, which I think beats handily the opposite, which is to think our times to be utterly unthinkable until shit happens. And perhaps because I am a historian of France, I think France in the 30s have more to teach us than Germany in that regard.

In any case, my point is that the Republicans may not even wish to distance themselves too much from the event. I think we differ in our evaluation of how much revulsion it inspires, especially amongst conservatives.

My concern has always been that the Trump phenomenon is what happens when respect for the institutions of society and reverence for notions of objective truth and the importance of the rule of law have been undermined.

Trump and his followers are no Nazis. Not because they are morally superior individuals (I make no comparison there) or because Nazis 'can't happen here', but rather because the social institutions they are trying to undermine are much stronger and with much deeper roots than those of Weimar Germany, and most especially because of their limitations - Trump is a vicious con man drifting from graft to graft, he's no deep coup planner. Witness the fact that he's been in power four solid years and this damp squib of a coup attempt is the best he can manage, apparently - together with his utterly lame attempts to game the system, all of which have been total failures. It is hard to imagine Hitler being Chancellor for four years and *then* pulling off a Beer Hall Putsch - like failure.

The danger has always been that some new figure could arise that is capable of harnessing the far right lunacy, while themselves having a more cunning and directing mind. An American Putin. I do think this is possible, but it clearly will not be as easy as it was in Weimar Germany or  post-fall of the Soviet Union Russia.

The reason is, once again, that existing institutions are stronger in America - and one of these strengths is that there is at least some reverence remaining among conservatives for American institutions. The sight of right wing inspired political violence had been a shock, and if that is repeated, it will be difficult to shrug off as an anomaly or a few bad apples. We are kinda seeing that fact play out now, with Republicans believing Trumpism is a sinking ship and scuttling like rats to distance themselves ... that only happens, not because Republicans genuinely care (all those that do have left already), but because they think engaging in political violence is a losing strategy at the moment.

[The Minsky Moment]

But the last 4 years have not been good for American institutions, that is Trump's legacy, with repeated abuses of executive power totally unchecked and at times encouraged by Congress.  And a lot of that can be laid of McConnell's door by putting party loyalty over loyalty to the Senate and to Congress as an institution.  Trump has laid a road map and the groundwork for a American Putin. 

[Malthus]

But the last 4 years have not been good for American institutions, that is Trump's legacy, with repeated abuses of executive power totally unchecked and at times encouraged by Congress.  And a lot of that can be laid of McConnell's door by putting party loyalty over loyalty to the Senate and to Congress as an institution.  Trump has laid a road map and the groundwork for a American Putin.

Agreed. The assault on democratic institutions, above and beyond any particular nasty thing Trump and the Republicans have done, is why his Presidency has been so harmful, why he fits in the same category as guys like Buchanan.

As I said, the danger is that he's laid the foundations for an American Putin ... but I also believe that any wannabe American Putin will have a much harder task ahead of them than the actual Putin faced in Russia.

Reason: there remains, despite Trump, a large degree of respect for American democratic institutions, which have had a long history. They are no means perfect of course, and there is plenty of justified critique (from the left) as to how and why they perpetuate oppression and injustice ... but the great majority of Americans still believe they ought to be reformed, not jettisoned.

[Oexmelin]

That's why I praise people like Mitch McConnell for standing up to that narrative and fighting for a party that believes in the law while everyone else is calling him an enabler piece of shit. 

Who do you praise him to?