Quo Vadis GOP?

[The Minsky Moment]

The impeachment shook my faith in American institutions. I "got" why the Russia allegations failed to make the full impact they deserved as the full story was complicated and Trump watched his Godfather II and maintained "buffers". But on the Ukraine scandal there was a recording of him extorting a foreign leader to get dirt on an opponent and witness testimony directly implicating him in a quid pro quo.  But 45% of the American people shrugged or even cheered the President on partisan and the Senate rolled over.

Trump made multiple statements about running for unconstitutional terms or becoming President for Life.  He tested waters and there was no significant pushback. 

[Malthus]

The impeachment shook my faith in American institutions. I "got" why the Russia allegations failed to make the full impact they deserved as the full story was complicated and Trump watched his Godfather II and maintained "buffers". But on the Ukraine scandal there was a recording of him extorting a foreign leader to get dirt on an opponent and witness testimony directly implicating him in a quid pro quo.  But 45% of the American people shrugged or even cheered the President on partisan and the Senate rolled over.

Trump made multiple statements about running for unconstitutional terms or becoming President for Life.  He tested waters and there was no significant pushback.

There is no question American institutions failed in dealing with Trump. With the Republicans holding the senate, there was apparently no route to remove him.

The question though was whether this failure pointed the way to dismantling the system itself.

So far, the answer to that question appears to be "no", because no matter what Trump has tried, he has been unable to stop the process of his own removal ... and the violence raised in the attempt to oppose that removal has not been met with any large scale approval.

[crazy canuck]

If the question is whether this failure shows the way to dismantling the system, I am not so quick to say the answer is no.  The whole notion of challenging the certification of the College votes turned not on Constitutional norms but potential political gain.  The whole notion of supporting a stop the steal movement was the same thing.  Egging on Trumpists with inflammatory remarks was the same.

The clear path forward is one need only make the political calculation tempting enough to get enough support in Congress to ignore the constitution. 

[Eddie Teach]

How would the political calculation ever be enough though? Sure, Cruz and Hawley are hoping to pick up the diehards in a future presidential primary, but for the average Senator just aiming for reelection it'd be a poor move.

[Sheilbh]

The question though was whether this failure pointed the way to dismantling the system itself.

So far, the answer to that question appears to be "no", because no matter what Trump has tried, he has been unable to stop the process of his own removal ... and the violence raised in the attempt to oppose that removal has not been met with any large scale approval.

Over half of House Republicans and 6 of, what, 50 Republican Senators voted to overturn the election results - with another 5 Senators elect indicating they would. They did this after the violence on the Capitol.

That might not be the same as large scale approval of the violence, but it's still pretty significant.

[Jacob]

One of the 9 GOP House representatives, who didn't vote to overturn the election, said that he expects that he has exposed himself and his family to danger by his vote. And also, that several of his peers voted to overturn the election because they were afraid of being targets of violence.

[The Brain]

And also, that several of his peers voted to overturn the election because they were afraid of being targets of violence.

Is this likely true?

[Sheilbh]

Shared by Erick Erickson on Twitter, he says this is doing the rounds on right-wing social media circles:

[Jacob]

At least the people participating will have fewer illusions about what might happen....

[Malthus]

The question though was whether this failure pointed the way to dismantling the system itself.

So far, the answer to that question appears to be "no", because no matter what Trump has tried, he has been unable to stop the process of his own removal ... and the violence raised in the attempt to oppose that removal has not been met with any large scale approval.

Over half of House Republicans and 6 of, what, 50 Republican Senators voted to overturn the election results - with another 5 Senators elect indicating they would. They did this after the violence on the Capitol.

That might not be the same as large scale approval of the violence, but it's still pretty significant.

This is the question: will continued political violence designed to overturn the election and perpetuate Trump in power actually succeed in perpetuating Trump in power?

Or will this, instead, divide the Republican Party?

I guess we shall see. I would predict the latter. I hope I'm right.

[Razgovory]

One of the 9 GOP House representatives, who didn't vote to overturn the election, said that he expects that he has exposed himself and his family to danger by his vote. And also, that several of his peers voted to overturn the election because they were afraid of being targets of violence.

I think there is a real chance that someone will assassinate a congressperson or Senator.  None of those people are well protected and we have ample evidence that people want to do it (and in the case of Whitmer actually planned to it).  I don't know what you do about that.  I have a real feeling that Trump's legacy is going to be much worse than we think.  Coup attempts beget more Coup attempts. What happens in the next few months could radically alter the US.  It really comes down to how people will react to the violence last week and any violence this month.  The poll that showed most Republicans disapprove of coup attempt is good news.  The large number of Republicans who sympathize with the perpetrators less so...

[Malthus]

One of the 9 GOP House representatives, who didn't vote to overturn the election, said that he expects that he has exposed himself and his family to danger by his vote. And also, that several of his peers voted to overturn the election because they were afraid of being targets of violence.

I think there is a real chance that someone will assassinate a congressperson or Senator.  None of those people are well protected and we have ample evidence that people want to do it (and in the case of Whitmer actually planned to it).  I don't know what you do about that.  I have a real feeling that Trump's legacy is going to be much worse than we think.  Coup attempts beget more Coup attempts. What happens in the next few months could radically alter the US.  It really comes down to how people will react to the violence last week and any violence this month.  The poll that showed most Republicans disapprove of coup attempt is good news.  The large number of Republicans who sympathize with the perpetrators less so...

So far, what I've seen from Republicans in response to the attack on the capitol is either one of fantasy (as in the whole thing was 'antifa'), whataboutism (as in 'this is just the same as BLM getting out of hand'), and only as a minority option, approval.

However, while the attackers managed to kill a cop, they didn't succeed in assassinating politicians.

I do think the latter is likely now - too many armed crazies have been riled up, it is impossible to protect everyone against well armed crazy people. What happens then, though? Will the majority of Republican voters watch political assassinations and say 'this is what I want'? If so, our most pessimistic outcomes become likely.

I suspect that what will happen is that there will be increasing pressure on the party to fissure into Trumpite and non-Trumpite factions. Those who were formerly Trumpites out of expedience are likely to  desert the cause, unless it is a popular vote-getter. Trump will not be in a position to bestow favours any more.

In short, increasing domestic terrorism is likely to make Trumpism less popular, and not more, among the pool of Republican voters. Some 80% allegedly already disapprove of the attack on the Capitol. That means a lot of people still approve, but I would predict that number will not increase when the crazies move on to increasing acts of terrorism.

[crazy canuck]

One of the 9 GOP House representatives, who didn't vote to overturn the election, said that he expects that he has exposed himself and his family to danger by his vote. And also, that several of his peers voted to overturn the election because they were afraid of being targets of violence.

I think there is a real chance that someone will assassinate a congressperson or Senator.  None of those people are well protected and we have ample evidence that people want to do it (and in the case of Whitmer actually planned to it).  I don't know what you do about that.  I have a real feeling that Trump's legacy is going to be much worse than we think.  Coup attempts beget more Coup attempts. What happens in the next few months could radically alter the US.  It really comes down to how people will react to the violence last week and any violence this month.  The poll that showed most Republicans disapprove of coup attempt is good news.  The large number of Republicans who sympathize with the perpetrators less so...

So far, what I've seen from Republicans in response to the attack on the capitol is either one of fantasy (as in the whole thing was 'antifa'), whataboutism (as in 'this is just the same as BLM getting out of hand'), and only as a minority option, approval.

However, while the attackers managed to kill a cop, they didn't succeed in assassinating politicians.

I do think the latter is likely now - too many armed crazies have been riled up, it is impossible to protect everyone against well armed crazy people. What happens then, though? Will the majority of Republican voters watch political assassinations and say 'this is what I want'? If so, our most pessimistic outcomes become likely.

I suspect that what will happen is that there will be increasing pressure on the party to fissure into Trumpite and non-Trumpite factions. Those who were formerly Trumpites out of expedience are likely to  desert the cause, unless it is a popular vote-getter. Trump will not be in a position to bestow favours any more.

In short, increasing domestic terrorism is likely to make Trumpism less popular, and not more, among the pool of Republican voters. Some 80% allegedly already disapprove of the attack on the Capitol. That means a lot of people still approve, but I would predict that number will not increase when the crazies move on to increasing acts of terrorism.

A lot can be justified in the mind of a person who firmly believes they are defending their nation and their god - especially when the two become so closely linked as what we are seeing in this movement.

[Malthus]

A lot can be justified in the mind of a person who firmly believes they are defending their nation and their god - especially when the two become so closely linked as what we are seeing in this movement.

Oh I agree.

The question is how acts justified in that manner by those in this movement will be seen by others, and the impact they will have.

Naturally they see themselves as patriots and heroes. Will the Republicans in general see them like that, and rally to their cause?

My guess is that they will not - I just hope I am right.

[crazy canuck]

I have less confidence in the millions of people who voted for Trump after having the advantage of seeing him as President.