US Election Week 2020

[Sheilbh]

With what he has already been called for and with the addition of the states where he's currently leading (Michigan and Nevada) Biden would already be at 270 electoral votes.

That's why Trump isn't saying all counting should stop

[FunkMonk]

There are a number of very big polling/projection misses at the state level. Just want to add one more (don't worry, I won't do a comprehensive list). Susan Collins is going to win Maine by about 9 points. Every poll in the nate silver forecast had Gideon winning, and silver projected Gideon to win by 2. For whatever reason, the Republican pollsters didn't seem to hit this one.

At a certain point, why waste money on pollsters and analysis? You can spitball almost as well.

Yeah, I think both parties are pretty pissed about wasting millions of dollars on these races based on some of this garbage polling.

[alfred russel]

So it seems Arizona is legitimately in play regardless of it being called. Predictit gives Trump a 22% shot.

Nate Silver commented the following in the past hour on twitter:

Basically the question is whether Trump can win all three of Georgia, Arizona and Pennsylvania. There are long-shot scenarios where North Carolina or Nevada come into play, but it's mostly about those three states. Very hard to see a path for Trump in Michigan or Wisconsin.

Trump needs to win the remaining AZ votes by something like 20-25% depending on how many ballots there are. By party registration, late-arriving mail votes were something like +19% R, per my (quick) calculations.

With that said, there are some reasons to think the late-arriving ballots would be less R than you'd gather from party ID. For one thing, the early arriving mail ballots went more heavily for Biden than party ID would suggest, perhaps reflecting his edge amount independents.

[alfred russel]

Does all this calling actually mean jack shit?

we are going to be in for legal challenges for the next month, instead of just Florida like in 2000  it's going to be multiple states probably

There probably will be legal challenges, but what made Florida unique is that the election was for all intents and purposes a tie. A handful of votes changing in a recount could change the winner.

Biden is up over 20k in Wisconsin and over 30k in Michigan (though they are still counting).

A legal challenge just isn't very interesting or likely to be productive.

[katmai]

Does all this calling actually mean jack shit?

we are going to be in for legal challenges for the next month, instead of just Florida like in 2000  it's going to be multiple states probably

There probably will be legal challenges, but what made Florida unique is that the election was for all intents and purposes a tie. A handful of votes changing in a recount could change the winner.

Biden is up over 20k in Wisconsin and over 30k in Michigan (though they are still counting).

A legal challenge just isn't very interesting or likely to be productive.

oh I agree, just what I heard was the challenge of recount can't even go into effect till next Wednesday and then Wisconsin has 13 days to process said recount ( not that it will take that long)

[katmai]

There are a number of very big polling/projection misses at the state level. Just want to add one more (don't worry, I won't do a comprehensive list). Susan Collins is going to win Maine by about 9 points. Every poll in the nate silver forecast had Gideon winning, and silver projected Gideon to win by 2. For whatever reason, the Republican pollsters didn't seem to hit this one.

At a certain point, why waste money on pollsters and analysis? You can spitball almost as well.

yeah this was one that surprised me. Though with like 175,000 ballot to still be counted i think final margin will be closer.

[Valmy]

Remember Maine's ranked voting so if Collins dips below 50% she can still lose even if she is still up. If it weren't for that quirk it would have probably already been called for her.

[Caliga]

Did Biden win all the electoral votes in Maine?  I can't find clear evidence of that on any of the news sites I've looked at (unlike Nebraska, where it's pretty clear he won Nebraska 2).

[Valmy]

Did Biden win all the electoral votes in Maine?  I can't find clear evidence of that on any of the news sites I've looked at (unlike Nebraska, where it's pretty clear he won Nebraska 2).

He has three so far. The other has not yet been called yet but the President is up.

[katmai]

Remember Maine's ranked voting so if Collins dips below 50% she can still lose even if she is still up. If it weren't for that quirk it would have probably already been called for her.

that's what I was expecting, until her challenger apparently has conceded.

[Caliga]

Did Biden win all the electoral votes in Maine?  I can't find clear evidence of that on any of the news sites I've looked at (unlike Nebraska, where it's pretty clear he won Nebraska 2).

He has three so far. The other has not yet been called yet but the President is up.

Is that sole electoral vote considered critical?  NE2 was being discussed as critical last night on CNN but I don't recall anyone talking about the Maine electoral vote.  Maybe because it was assumed Trump would win it, so no point discussing it?

[DGuller]

Just wondering, what is the chance that it wasn't polling that was garbage, but vote counting?  We don't know how many ballots are considered voided, do we?  Maybe it's a horrifically high number.

[The Larch]

Did Biden win all the electoral votes in Maine?  I can't find clear evidence of that on any of the news sites I've looked at (unlike Nebraska, where it's pretty clear he won Nebraska 2).

Trump got Maine's remaining vote, Biden got the other 3.

[Josquius]

When I was checking out some combinations earlier Maine was critical but I think it has lost that now.

[The Larch]

Apparently the Trump campaign is going hard at Fox and AP for calling Arizona for Biden and are demanding that call to be retracted.