US 2020 Presidential Election prediction thread

[Oexmelin]

I have a dreadful feeling that Trump will win.

I hope I am wrong.

[Valmy]

I have a dreadful feeling that Trump will win.

I find your lack of faith in America....understandable

[Admiral Yi]

I'm generally pretty positive.  Nate gives Donald, what, 9% chance?  He has like 6 must win battleground states.  All the Trump supporters I know (and the people on the street who look like Trump supporters) look more discouraged and down than pumped up for a fight.  I would not be surprised if GOP turnout is shit.

All those absentee and early votes are already in the book so we don't have to worry so much about dumbass Democratic voters not showing up on election day.

Stocks are up.

[Admiral Yi]

Just looked and it wasn't just some loose commentary in the oral hearing - despite dismissing the case, the majority of the written order is actually an opinion on the merits about the legality of the drive though.  He finds they are OK for early voting but not on Election Day.  He says all this after refusing to opine on the key threshold issue of whether a federal court should be entertaining such second guessing of state law rulings from the state Supreme Court (they shouldn't) claiming he doesn't need to address the issue because he is dismissing for lack of standing.  But then why on earth does he discuss the merits?

Simple - to cast a cloud on drive through voting on Election Day in a way that can't be appealed or fix,  It is an outrageous abuse of judicial power for raw political purpose,  A disgrace to the robe,

Are you sure Harris (or any place) was even intending to conduct drive through on election day?  The Texas law seems pretty clear.

[Valmy]

Yeah I am not clear if that was not the plan all along.

It just sets up another legal challenge for the next election unless the legislature clarifies next session in 2021.

[Grey Fox]

I expect :

Biden to win the Popular vote;
Biden to win 290+ electoral vote;
That Trump will still be president on January 21st 2021.

[Barrister]

I expect :

Biden to win the Popular vote;
Biden to win 290+ electoral vote;
That Trump will still be president on January 21st 2021.

I've seen all kind of potential Trumpian shenanigans being proposed, but every single one relies on Trump by hook or by crook getting over 270 EVs (or else neither side does and it goes to the House).

If Biden has 290+ EVs by definition he becomes the 46th President.

[DGuller]

There is no logical reason to be pessimistic, at least about the presidential race, all the data points very decisively to a Biden win.  It's just that democracy seems to be stuck in a rut of bad luck lately all over the world, and you're at a point where you expect bad luck to keep pounding you.  It's like a poker player who lost five hands in a row where they were a 75% favorite, and now they believe that having opponents suck out on them is just inevitable no matter what the math says.

[Valmy]

I fully anticipate Joey Joe Joe Jr Shabadoo to win this thing. But I want it to be by a lot.

But there is a lot more at stake. We must win the Senate and tons of really important races going on in Texas and locally. We have a notoriously Constitutional rights ignoring County Sheriff to vote out of office. Fucker should be in federal prison but I will take it.

Lots to be nervous about.

[The Minsky Moment]

Are you sure Harris (or any place) was even intending to conduct drive through on election day?

Yes the 10 locations were supposed to be open today.  The clerk made the decision to close all but one last night.

[crazy canuck]

I have a dreadful feeling that Trump will win.

I hope I am wrong.

The fact that Trump has a sufficient amount of support to make the result uncomfortably close is a disturbing reality.  Dread is the appropriate emotion.  And likely will be felt until the Trumpists no longer have influence over the Republican party.

[11B4V]

 

[alfred russel]

The fact that Trump has a sufficient amount of support to make the result uncomfortably close is a disturbing reality.  Dread is the appropriate emotion.  And likely will be felt until the Trumpists no longer have influence over the Republican party.

Nah, the Trumpists are the Republican party now. Hopefully not in the sense that they are led by someone as personally miserable as Trump, but they not going to revert to their pretrump stage when Romney was the nominee. They are a populist party now.

The unifying force in the Republican party has been the memory of Reagan, who came from the ideological edge to win the presidency in 1980 and became so popular he carried 49 states in 1984 (and the Democrats began campaigning in the 50th because they feared getting shut out). The core ideology was small government and low taxes.

Clinton came along and pushed the Democrats into the "third way"--low taxes for everyone but the wealthy, cuts to welfare but funding for popular programs like education and social security. The republicans have essentially been boxed out of their old space--they have only won the popular vote for president once sense Clinton came on the scene in 1992. Lowering taxes on the wealthy isn't popular and neither are cuts to the current government programs. Going back to that old space isn't going to win elections.

[crazy canuck]

Ok, so constant dread.  Great.

[crazy canuck]

The fact that Trump has a sufficient amount of support to make the result uncomfortably close is a disturbing reality.  Dread is the appropriate emotion.  And likely will be felt until the Trumpists no longer have influence over the Republican party.

Nah, the Trumpists are the Republican party now. Hopefully not in the sense that they are led by someone as personally miserable as Trump, but they not going to revert to their pretrump stage when Romney was the nominee. They are a populist party now.

The unifying force in the Republican party has been the memory of Reagan, who came from the ideological edge to win the presidency in 1980 and became so popular he carried 49 states in 1984 (and the Democrats began campaigning in the 50th because they feared getting shut out). The core ideology was small government and low taxes.

Clinton came along and pushed the Democrats into the "third way"--low taxes for everyone but the wealthy, cuts to welfare but funding for popular programs like education and social security. The republicans have essentially been boxed out of their old space--they have only won the popular vote for president once sense Clinton came on the scene in 1992. Lowering taxes on the wealthy isn't popular and neither are cuts to the current government programs. Going back to that old space isn't going to win elections.

Your implication that the Trumpist way is a viable path to winning elections is what causes the dread.