US 2020 Presidential Election prediction thread

[crazy canuck]

Smarter GOP leaders will try to shear off the blatantly racist Trumpian rhetoric while still appealing to the working class through populist economic policies and through the culture war.

How does one do that though.  Isn't the underlying argument that sure, poor whites might have it bad under Republican policies but at least Blacks have it worse.

[alfred russel]

Smarter GOP leaders will try to shear off the blatantly racist Trumpian rhetoric while still appealing to the working class through populist economic policies and through the culture war.

Exactly.

[alfred russel]

How does one do that though.  Isn't the underlying argument that sure, poor whites might have it bad under Republican policies but at least Blacks have it worse.

Not even Trump is saying that.

[Eddie Teach]

Smarter GOP leaders will try to shear off the blatantly racist Trumpian rhetoric while still appealing to the working class through populist economic policies and through the culture war.

How does one do that though.  Isn't the underlying argument that sure, poor whites might have it bad under Republican policies but at least Blacks have it worse.

To be successful, they'll have to moderate their economic policies.

[Razgovory]

Things can change.  Trump is actually polling better with hispanics than he did in 2016.

There is an argument whether "Trumpism without Trump" is a viable electoral strategy or not.  But we can tell an awful lot of GOP hopefuls are going to find out.

He is polling crappily as opposed to shittily among Hispanics.

The Ignorant White Male vote is a decreasing percentage of the population, and relying on it will have decreasing returns.

I will have you know that I am ignorant white Male and I have been increasing in size since the early 1980's.

[FunkMonk]

Smarter GOP leaders will try to shear off the blatantly racist Trumpian rhetoric while still appealing to the working class through populist economic policies and through the culture war.

How does one do that though.  Isn't the underlying argument that sure, poor whites might have it bad under Republican policies but at least Blacks have it worse.

Some options:

Disconnect the GOP from racist organizations. Openly and repeatedly repudiate any organization even remotely linked to white supremacy. Expel Republicans from the party that flirt with white supremacists. Recruit better and not-racist Republican candidates.

Support living wage policies. Hop onboard public healthcare options like the ACA's Medicaid expansion. Talk to union leaders and signal your openness to change.

Not saying any of these are likely but they could essentially co-opt Democrats and complete their takeover of the working class.

[katmai]

The Funks, garbons (before he flipped a bitch and left country) and even derspicy's kids and I are the future of America. You old White people ( including derspicy) are the past.

[Legbiter]

I bet $20k on Biden, in a about a zillion different bets.

Well at least you'll eat your own cooking. For good or ill.

[PJL]

Smarter GOP leaders will try to shear off the blatantly racist Trumpian rhetoric while still appealing to the working class through populist economic policies and through the culture war.

How does one do that though.  Isn't the underlying argument that sure, poor whites might have it bad under Republican policies but at least Blacks have it worse.

Some options:

Disconnect the GOP from racist organizations. Openly and repeatedly repudiate any organization even remotely linked to white supremacy. Expel Republicans from the party that flirt with white supremacists. Recruit better and not-racist Republican candidates.

Support living wage policies. Hop onboard public healthcare options like the ACA's Medicaid expansion. Talk to union leaders and signal your openness to change.

Not saying any of these are likely but they could essentially co-opt Democrats and complete their takeover of the working class.

No offence, but Ford Prefect turning into a penguin is more likely than this.

[alfred russel]

The Funks, garbons (before he flipped a bitch and left country) and even derspicy's kids and I are the future of America. You old White people ( including derspicy) are the past.

Latinos are just a mix of european and native ancestry. Just like old school "white" guys. Your future is to be classified as white, just as happened to my italian ancestors. And then in the longer term no one will care about any of this.

[Oexmelin]

In the long term we are all dead.

[katmai]

The Funks, garbons (before he flipped a bitch and left country) and even derspicy's kids and I are the future of America. You old White people ( including derspicy) are the past.

Latinos are just a mix of european and native ancestry. Just like old school "white" guys. Your future is to be classified as white, just as happened to my italian ancestors. And then in the longer term no one will care about any of this.

[grumbler]

As AR pointed out groups that were firmly part of the outsiders just a generation or two ago (Irish, Italians) are firmly insiders now.

The Irish were outsiders two generations ago?  Somebody tell Teddy Roosevelt or Woodrow Wilson! Fiorello La Guardia and Wally Schirra would argue with your characterization of them as outsiders, I think.  It takes some time to become an insider, but that happened longer ago than you think for those groups.

There's long been a Republican dream to bring african americans into the fold.  Not only is it the Party of Lincoln, but blacks are much more socially conservative.  Theoretically it's possible, though obviously the GOP would have to change its rhetoric and policies a lot.  And blacks can just as easily be nativist as whites - they've lived in that country for centuries too.  Here the "other" isn't based on skin colour, but based on country of origin.

Every party dreams of bringing every voting group into their fold. 

Trumpism is more than ordinary American populism.  It's a reveling in the nasty; it's a deliberate degradation of social norms and the insistence that facts are whatever you want them to be.  It's anti-intellectual unicorn-belief (e.g. accusing your opponent of wanting to listen to doctors on medical issues, when relief comes from just repeating "turning the corner" over and over again until it is true, then claiming credit for the turn).  I don't think those will be features of any successful future republican bid for the White House.

[saskganesh]

I bet 5$ with the Russian, Stalinist, Putinist, Nationalist, Oxford Comma, ArchConservative, Cook at work.
He reads different media. He believes there is a solid block of black, middle class, voters who will swing the election to the Orange One.
I think I made 5$.

[saskganesh]

Of course, Americans are bad at elections, so if I lose, I'll have to find retribution: vodka.