US 2020 Presidential Election prediction thread

[DGuller]

I am finding myself having trouble trying to get into the analysis of this election. I just can't process the idea of somebody wanting to vote for Trump.

Even with Dubya I could understand the appeal of flag-waving scaremongering even if I wasn't a fan of it. But I simply cannot wrap my mind around the idea of somebody looking at this absolute piece of shit and thinking "yep that guy should lead my country".

Fear is a great motivator, even for thinking.  A lot of Republicans simply fear Democrats having power.  When Obama was elected in 2009, one of my distant family relatives said that now it's free season for blacks to start slaughtering whites.  These people don't fear tax code they don't approve of, they fear for their lives.

Once you're motivated by fear, your reality is going to deviate significantly to deal with cognitive dissonance.  You're going to accept whoever as a Republican, but you may as well be proud of them as well, so those who succumbed to fear so terminally don't even perceive Trump's terribleness, they'll just write it off as hoax or propaganda.  Sure, a lot of them will wish that he wrote less stupid Twitter tweets, but even then they just say what a masterful troll he is, keeping brainwashed liberals off balance.  It really is insanity more than it is stupidity.

[Razgovory]

Barr has shown no inclination to arrest or even charge Biden with anything, yet you were "almost right"? OK.

Trump demanded that Barr do the things I said.  I think that's pretty close.

[Barrister]

I am finding myself having trouble trying to get into the analysis of this election. I just can't process the idea of somebody wanting to vote for Trump.

Even with Dubya I could understand the appeal of flag-waving scaremongering even if I wasn't a fan of it. But I simply cannot wrap my mind around the idea of somebody looking at this absolute piece of shit and thinking "yep that guy should lead my country".

The one explanation I heard (I think it was from conservative writer David French) was that 'if you consumed the media that Trump supporters consumed, you'd be a Trump voter too'.

[Josquius]

I am finding myself having trouble trying to get into the analysis of this election. I just can't process the idea of somebody wanting to vote for Trump.

Even with Dubya I could understand the appeal of flag-waving scaremongering even if I wasn't a fan of it. But I simply cannot wrap my mind around the idea of somebody looking at this absolute piece of shit and thinking "yep that guy should lead my country".

Fear is a great motivator, even for thinking.  A lot of Republicans simply fear Democrats having power.  When Obama was elected in 2009, one of my distant family relatives said that now it's free season for blacks to start slaughtering whites.  These people don't fear tax code they don't approve of, they fear for their lives.

Once you're motivated by fear, your reality is going to deviate significantly to deal with cognitive dissonance.  You're going to accept whoever as a Republican, but you may as well be proud of them as well, so those who succumbed to fear so terminally don't even perceive Trump's terribleness, they'll just write it off as hoax or propaganda.  Sure, a lot of them will wish that he wrote less stupid Twitter tweets, but even then they just say what a masterful troll he is, keeping brainwashed liberals off balance.  It really is insanity more than it is stupidity.

You'd think though boy who cried wolf rules would apply.
Its like when gay people got civil partnerships in the UK and the sky didn't fall in...This did a lot to lessen opposition to rolling out full gay marriage so when it finally did happen it was a fait accompli, nobody much cared; it came from the Conservatives even.

[Barrister]

Not my prediction, but the CBC's election forecaster Eric Grenier (think of him as a maple-flavoured Nate Silver) has Pennsylvania and Arizona listed as Dem leaning, Wisconsin and Nevada as Dem likely, and Michigan and Minnesota as Dem safe.  Meanwhile the "too close to call" states are Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Florida and Texas - each one of them a state Trump won in 2016.

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/presidential/

[Valmy]

I think Texas is in play a lot more than PA or OH.

Is Texas in play? I don't know yet. Based on what we have seen I see a 50-48 or so Trump win. Closer than 2018 (I am talking about the Cruz-Beto Senate Race). But we will see. It is actually quite predictable if you know how each county usually votes plus their turnout now that we have the majority of the vote in.

A few of the Democrat voting counties have already passed their total 2016 vote numbers and several others will have comfortably done that by this weekend so it will be tight but I personally don't think it will be close enough to actually win. I see very good things happening for the Democrats in Texas though in several of our other races.

And in Texas, and I think in the South in general, people are far more likely to vote for party over candidate. So that is why you have states like South Carolina where the Republicans win 55%-45% year after year with very little influencing that result. Texas is changing Demographically so that is why the vote is shifting but it is not like Republicans and Republican aligned independents are going to vote Biden just because they personally dislike the President in large numbers. In other states in other regions that might happen. People here tend to just vote the same year after year it doesn't matter what happens.

But that also means that if the Democrats do capture Texas it might stay that way very inflexibly. So there is that to.

[Razgovory]

I don't think Texas will go blue this year, but that it may in the future.  If the GOP wants to hold onto Texas they are going to need to repudiate Trump and Trumpism.  It simply doesn't make sense in a state with such a large number of Hispanics.

[alfred russel]

I don't think Texas will go blue this year, but that it may in the future.  If the GOP wants to hold onto Texas they are going to need to repudiate Trump and Trumpism.  It simply doesn't make sense in a state with such a large number of Hispanics.

Over the medium and long term, assuming we keep the current two party system, neither party is going to be noncompetitive nationally for an extended period. The center of gravity of the parties will just shift to make it work.

Parties usually move on from disastrous leaders without formal repudiation. I don't think the Republicans ever really repudiated Nixon--Roger Stone even has a Nixon tattoo. The Tories never repudiated Thatcher.

[Eddie Teach]

Isn't Thatcher viewed much like Reagan?

[crazy canuck]

I don't think Texas will go blue this year, but that it may in the future.  If the GOP wants to hold onto Texas they are going to need to repudiate Trump and Trumpism.  It simply doesn't make sense in a state with such a large number of Hispanics.

Over the medium and long term, assuming we keep the current two party system, neither party is going to be noncompetitive nationally for an extended period. The center of gravity of the parties will just shift to make it work.

Parties usually move on from disastrous leaders without formal repudiation. I don't think the Republicans ever really repudiated Nixon--Roger Stone even has a Nixon tattoo. The Tories never repudiated Thatcher.

The reason Nixon resigned is because the Republicans were repudiating him and he would have lost the impeachment vote.  Really odd to equate Thatcher to Nixon. 

[Admiral Yi]

Isn't Thatcher viewed much like Reagan?

Reagan never really generated the hostility Thatcher did.

[Barrister]

Isn't Thatcher viewed much like Reagan?

Reagan never really generated the hostility Thatcher did.

The left was pretty hostile to Reagan...

[Habbaku]

The left being hostile to Reagan doesn't compare to the hostility that Thatcher received/receives. They aren't even close.

[Valmy]

I don't think Texas will go blue this year, but that it may in the future.  If the GOP wants to hold onto Texas they are going to need to repudiate Trump and Trumpism.  It simply doesn't make sense in a state with such a large number of Hispanics.

The Tejanos don't vote in huge numbers. They cannot be completely ignored but they are not as big of a political factor as one might think given their numbers. George W Bush attempted to pander to them when the Republicans were taking over Texas in the 1990s but since then not only have the Republicans ignored them they have seemingly gone out of their way to antagonize them which didn't hurt them much at all until Trumpism and rapid population increases started to flip the suburbs.

[Valmy]

Isn't Thatcher viewed much like Reagan?

Reagan never really generated the hostility Thatcher did.

The left was pretty hostile to Reagan...

Yeah but it was a pretty normal level of hostility. There was still bipartisan support to be had for many of his initiatives. The left would work with him.

In today's climate Reagan would have been totally ineffectual and a failure. He had a Democratic controlled the House for his entire tenure.