Will the United States of America experience a coup in 2020?

[Agelastus]

Is it just me but trust in the election process is in something of a freefall at both sides of the political spectrum?

Is that why the Democrats ran a set of no-hopers and has-beens in their primaries before settling on the candidate least likely to beat Trump?

[No, I am not impressed with Joe Biden.]

[grumbler]

Yes absolutely.

There's many ways. If come November, Trump thinks he can't win the election, there are many things he can do. I use the word "can" lightly, but I'll get to that. Primarily, as his son-in-law has already indicated, Trump may say that the situation is too volatile (COVID/Riots whatever is happening then) to have safe elections and he is postponing them until a safer time. Now, I hear you say, he can't do that. To which I say "watch him".  He has the senate and the supreme court on his side.

Again, the Federal government runs no elections.  Trump can "cancel" the elections, but he cannot stop them from happening.

As others have mentioned, there may be more of a structural coup. He loses, and in some states people rise up, seize the capitol building refuse to let the electoral college voters vote.

The electors from a state don't have to vote in the state's capital building.

Trump loses. Argues the election "is rigged." Refuses to leave. Election victory doesn't get ratified.

The process of election certification can theoretically be stopped by the Senate or House refusing to meet as required by law, but this is the newly-elected Senate and House that we are looking at, and they'll almost certainly be both Democratic (even if there are no ratified Senate elections, the Democrats will control the senate once the Republican seats are vacated).  There is no way that I can see that the election doesn't get certified.

Other scenarios only Trump can think up. I've said before democracy is broken in the USA

It's certainly not possible to "prepare for" scenarios that cannot be imagined in advance.

I just don't put anything past Trump and his Trumpists any more. He can and will do anything to stay in power, and he is not going to leave wihtout causing riots in America that will make the last week look like foreplay.

The relationship between riots and foreplay escapes me, but, while I agree that Trump and his supporters will engage in all sorts of election shenanigans, there isn't a whole lot that they can do given that the process is largely out of his hands.

It may be moot though, cause I still think he's gonna win the election.

If he wins the election, then he wins and doesn't need a coup.  I think that unlikely, but I think it far more likely than the other outlandish scenarios you propose.

[garbon]

[No, I am not impressed with Joe Biden.]

Ok

[grumbler]

It doesn't even need to go that far. They can "lose" absentee and vote-by-mail ballots, shut down voting centers in cities and use the police to intimidate and arrest voters, purge voter rolls, and all of the actions that Republicans have been doing for years. Even if the state has a Dem governor, the police in major cities are generally Trump supporters, and shutting down voting in a few major cities might be enough to swing states that are close.

The problem with this scenario is that it is only likely in states that trump would win anyway.  Stopping some democratic voters from voting in those states isn't going to change the electoral college vote.

The police are not going to shut down elections in major cities, even if (and I don't think this is true) they are all trump supporters.  How could they?  They aren't independent actors, they are city employees.

[grumbler]

Is it just me but trust in the election process is in something of a freefall at both sides of the political spectrum?

I think Democrats would note that Republicans are doing all they can to rig election outcomes, as well as have concerns about how Trump will react to a loss (/if he will lose), but I'm not sure it goes further than that. I don't think Dems distrust the election process, after all, it is our one point of hope.

[grumbler]

Is it just me but trust in the election process is in something of a freefall at both sides of the political spectrum?

Is that why the Democrats ran a set of no-hopers and has-beens in their primaries before settling on the candidate least likely to beat Trump?

[No, I am not impressed with Joe Biden.]

I think that there is zero evidence that Biden is the candidate least likely to beat Trump, and tons of evidence to the contrary.  The very last quality I would value in a democratic candidate is that he impress some random Brit.

[HisMajestyBOB]

Yes absolutely.

There's many ways. If come November, Trump thinks he can't win the election, there are many things he can do. I use the word "can" lightly, but I'll get to that. Primarily, as his son-in-law has already indicated, Trump may say that the situation is too volatile (COVID/Riots whatever is happening then) to have safe elections and he is postponing them until a safer time. Now, I hear you say, he can't do that. To which I say "watch him".  He has the senate and the supreme court on his side.

As others have mentioned, there may be more of a structural coup. He loses, and in some states people rise up, seize the capitol building refuse to let the electoral college voters vote.

It doesn't even need to go that far. They can "lose" absentee and vote-by-mail ballots, shut down voting centers in cities and use the police to intimidate and arrest voters, purge voter rolls, and all of the actions that Republicans have been doing for years. Even if the state has a Dem governor, the police in major cities are generally Trump supporters, and shutting down voting in a few major cities might be enough to swing states that are close.

But then that's a rigged election which is very different from the notion that he can unilaterally prevent states from holding elections.

True. But there's very little practical difference because both lead to the same end. Venezuela, Hungary, and many others are no longer democracies not because of an outright coup, but because of rigged elections and fraud that gives just a thin veneer of legality.

[DGuller]

The problem is that most things involved in coups or self-coups require a judgment call.  You think elections are rigged?  You think, or you know?  Are you confident enough to engage in actions that would amount to a coup if unjustified, and will other people consider it justified?

[HisMajestyBOB]

It doesn't even need to go that far. They can "lose" absentee and vote-by-mail ballots, shut down voting centers in cities and use the police to intimidate and arrest voters, purge voter rolls, and all of the actions that Republicans have been doing for years. Even if the state has a Dem governor, the police in major cities are generally Trump supporters, and shutting down voting in a few major cities might be enough to swing states that are close.

The problem with this scenario is that it is only likely in states that trump would win anyway.  Stopping some democratic voters from voting in those states isn't going to change the electoral college vote.

The police are not going to shut down elections in major cities, even if (and I don't think this is true) they are all trump supporters.  How could they?  They aren't independent actors, they are city employees.

In states that are on the margin (Wisconsin, Florida, etc.), it could be enough to swing the vote.

Yes, they are city employees. Are they following the city's orders when they use excessive force against non-violent protestors, destroy private property, shoot and arrest the press, and choke black people to death?

[Agelastus]

Is it just me but trust in the election process is in something of a freefall at both sides of the political spectrum?

Is that why the Democrats ran a set of no-hopers and has-beens in their primaries before settling on the candidate least likely to beat Trump?

[No, I am not impressed with Joe Biden.]

I think that there is zero evidence that Biden is the candidate least likely to beat Trump, and tons of evidence to the contrary.  The very last quality I would value in a democratic candidate is that he impress some random Brit.

"Random Brit"...and after all we've been through together...

Seriously, though, the impression I have is that of all the candidates Biden had both the most experience and the most baggage; he was the Democrat challenger with the most ammunition available for Republican attack ads to work on.

[Josephus]

If he wins the election, then he wins and doesn't need a coup.  I think that unlikely, but I think it far more likely than the other outlandish scenarios you propose.

You're way too optimistic. Everything you said only holds true if a rational person was president and had a rational group of people in his posse (senate/judiciary).

Let's say this: Trump loses. REfuses to concede. Refuses to leave the WH.

What next?

[fromtia]

Is it just me but trust in the election process is in something of a freefall at both sides of the political spectrum?

Not so sure. Although they don't say it out loud Republicans know that they can't maintain their structural advantage or win elections talking openly about their actual policies in the face of a much more moderate general population, so they have become increasingly antagonistic to democracy in general and energized Republicans with fictions about fraud and so on, which they lap up.

People on the left of the Democratic party, people like me essentially certainly express frustration about the lack of candidates and policy platforms and so on, but I am under no illusion whatsoever that the ballot box is the only hope of pulling the US out of it's current and ongoing circling of the drain.

[grumbler]

In states that are on the margin (Wisconsin, Florida, etc.), it could be enough to swing the vote.

But those are the states where it isn't likely to happen, and where police will be punished if they engage in illegal activity.  Derek Chavin is in jail because he broke the law in Minnesota, one of the states that you think will have a cop coup.

Yes, they are city employees. Are they following the city's orders when they use excessive force against non-violent protestors, destroy private property, shoot and arrest the press, and choke black people to death?

They are generally following the letter of the law, if not the spirit.  Where they fail to follow the letter of the law (as you propose they will all do, for... "reasons") they can get arrested and charged.  The officer accused of choking Floyd to death is charged with murder, and his three accomplices have, as a minimum, lost their career in law enforcement (and may be charged as well).  Yet you think that for.. reasons... all the police in these major cities will sacrifice their careers and maybe their freedom for.... stuff and whatnot.

[grumbler]

The problem is that most things involved in coups or self-coups require a judgment call.  You think elections are rigged?  You think, or you know?  Are you confident enough to engage in actions that would amount to a coup if unjustified, and will other people consider it justified?

That's a tougher question, of course, but I haven't seen a scenario where intentional rigging might succeed on the scale needed to ensure a trump victory.  Even in the infamous 2000 Florida presidential election, the results were botched, not rigged.

[grumbler]

You're way too optimistic. Everything you said only holds true if a rational person was president and had a rational group of people in his posse (senate/judiciary).

Let's say this: Trump loses. REfuses to concede. Refuses to leave the WH.

What next?

We've gone over this.  Trump refuses to concede and refuses to leave the WH, and then the Secret Service ejects or maybe even arrests him.  It's not like he has any power just because he says so.  Even a compliant judiciary isn't going to let him remain president when he isn't legally entitled to do so.

I know that these scary scenarios are fun, like telling ghost stories around the campfire, but they have to be credible to be scary, and so far no one has told a credible ghost story about trump and the election.  because I don't believe in ghosts doesn't make me "way too optimistic."

It may well be possible for someone to come up with a trump ghost story that has me shivering.  I just haven't heard one yet.