Bernie v Joe, Who do you like?

[Sheilbh]

...and? You think this will translate into votes?

The only way Democrats win vote is by producing a narrative of their own, and that narrative must absolutely not be one rooted in some kind of sophisticated discourse about the facts of impeachment, or the details of Burisma, or any of those things. No one cares anymore. This is just not good campaigning.  Trump's message is simple stupid: Democrats hate you, and everything you stand for. They are unfair, and ready for anything. This  pushes the right buttons of Democrats who over, and over, and over again fall into the trap of trying to show that no, they are not unfair, really. So they keep responding to Trump, who keeps moving the goalposts and while it doesn't look like it at all, that Trumpian message is already quite disciplined by virtue of being vetted and repeated by Fox News. Trumps says something, and Fox spends considerable energy making it real, which in turn gives Trump, who feeds of it, the necessary branching narratives.

Exactly.

I think this is also one of the points about Trump being quite skilled. Yes, rambles and seems to go off point all the time - but, he has real message discipline. He always hits the same 3-4 points which is essential because most people aren't paying attention closely or watching the news. It's that thing political strategists always say, that when all the journalists and people who watch the news are absolutely sick of hearing the same thing again and again, that's when it starts to cut through to the average voters. In 2016 I could tell you Trump's message, it's the same in 2020 so far.

I'm not sure what Biden's is yet.

[Legbiter]

He always hits the same 3-4 points which is essential because most people aren't paying attention closely or watching the news.

He did a Fox townhall a couple of days ago. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVcbmisaTUo

Compare and contrast Trump with Biden going forward. Will the dems be able to offer Trump voters an off-ramp or will it just be Orange Man Bad and visceral, naked hatred of the customers they need to switch?

[Josquius]

Yes, focusing on a few stupid points is the way to win. We saw it well with the last UK election. Labour's biggest mistake, even beyond having Corbyn in charge and poor media handling, was that they just kept throwing out idea after idea instead of focusing on some simple messages.
Ill thought-out stupidity is what wins.
What simple messages could the dems push though? This sort of thing works a lot better if you want to keep things as they are.

[Valmy]

visceral, naked hatred of the customers they need to switch?

Are voters customers now? Can we offer $20 for every customer referral we get?

Clinton said her brilliant deplorables thing but Biden doesn't do visceral and certainly not hatred. His messaging has always been fluffy. That is not his problem (though he does do weird shit like "don't vote for me then" though Trump did turn to the centrist Republicans and basically said "fuck you, you have to vote for me rather you like it or not" and that was fine). I guess if the nutters posting on twitter are running instead...

[The Minsky Moment]

Simple.  One message.  People are sick of the nonstop noise coming out of Donald.  There is only one way to get him to shut up.  Fire his ass.

[HisMajestyBOB]

On the other hand, running as "Not George Bush" didn't help Kerry.

[Tamas]

Simple.  One message.  People are sick of the nonstop noise coming out of Donald.  There is only one way to get him to shut up.  Fire his ass.

No, you have to project an alternative, how you want the country to look like. Sure, it will have to be reduced to buzzwords short enough for Twitter messages, but "not Donald Trump" won't be enough, I think.

At least it has not been enough in other countries to remove quasi-fascist baboons like him.

[Admiral Yi]

The last Donald approval rating I saw was 49% right after he was TOTALLY EXONERATED IN THE SENATE.  I don't see how you can say people are fed up with him.

[celedhring]

The last Donald approval rating I saw was 49% right after he was TOTALLY EXONERATED IN THE SENATE.  I don't see how you can say people are fed up with him.

538 polling average is currently a hair below 43%. He's been in that bracket for pretty much the past two years so I don't think it matters that much.

[Barrister]

On the other hand, running as "Not George Bush" didn't help Kerry.

In 2004 Bush wasn't that unpopular.  Looks like he was above 50% approval.

His second term is where his approval ratings really tanked.

[The Minsky Moment]

No, you have to project an alternative, how you want the country to look like.

"take control"  "Get it done"
You don't actually have to project a real alternative. The Tories taught us all that.

Oh and "Make America Great Again"  -remember that.

[The Minsky Moment]

The last Donald approval rating I saw was 49% right after he was TOTALLY EXONERATED IN THE SENATE.  I don't see how you can say people are fed up with him.

538 polling average is currently a hair below 43%. He's been in that bracket for pretty much the past two years so I don't think it matters that much.

And even some of the people who approve generally of his presidency don't like all the tweeting and talking.