Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Liep]

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1486726605057585152

UPDATE— Denmark's CDC says BA2 subvariant of #Omicron is about ~1.5 times more contagious than BA1 (original Omicron). This makes it much higher than prior estimates and could "extend" the Omicron wave into February, says Denmark https://t.co/ru4nLetewS

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1486767843333095424

18) not good - Denmark (where BA2 is most common) is seeing really bad hospitalization surges. Many even with boosters. BA2 could be quite evasive against past immunity I'm thinking as well as more contagious.

That's just rubbish. Very alarmist and simplistic.

The number of people who have covid while in the hospital has increased a lot - as it has spread rapidly in society, it has also spread rapidly in hospitals and among people who are admitted to hospitals, but fewer and fewer are admitted because of covid itself. ICU numbers, respirator numbers, direct covid admittance etc. have all declined steadily while infections have gone through the roof. There's a reason we're removing all restrictions come next week. I wouldn't trust that guy if this is his general level of understanding.

This is a pretty good graph explaining it:

https://twitter.com/M_B_Petersen/status/1488392005281628160/photo/1

The number of hospitalistions and deaths aren't very telling though as they're not necessarily because of Covid. For example 243 of the hospitalistions are psych patients who tested positive but remains in psychological care.

[Sheilbh]

There's been similar in the UK - since omicron arrived there's been a big increase in the number of people coming into hospital testing positive. This is particularly visible in the non-acute hospitals - so they don't have an A&E and for the rest of the pandemic basically didn't really deal with covid patients. They've seen a huge rise in covid cases not because they're now accepting covid patients but because their patients (often mental health, learning disability or long-term care) have covid incidentally - it's not what they're being treated for.

[mongers]

I often think about a piece - I think by Zeynep Tufekci about a year ago - where she wrote about how pandemics end. Her point was basically they end when people stop caring to an extent - the disease still exists, it still infects and for them it can be very sad because it can still kill - but basically there is a point when due to things you can do to prevent or cure it, that people stop worrying about it.
...
I think that is part of it and also as you say ultimately I think with covid news, people were interested in what they could do and the reality is that now in the UK over 90% of eligible people have had at least one dose, about two-thirds have had three. The vast majority of people have done the best thing they can do to reduce the risk of covid which is to get vaccinated. Beyond that there's not much more that people can do unless we go back to full lockdown. So I think there's a bit of fatalism too.
.....
Again that's another reason why I think we might be back to the beginning and covid finally is starting to look like flu - it's starting to hav a similar IFR in the UK, I expect we will have seasonal flu and covid vaccine shots every winter based on what scientists think are the variants in circulation and I think we'll probably start to have bad covid seasons in the winter, like we have bad flu seasons when they get it wrong and the annual vaccine doesn't work as well against the variants actually in circulation.

There's much to agree with in what you've posted' it's now just an extra risk we all run, so up to each of us how seriously we take it.

An average of 260 deaths per day appears acceptable now. 

For myself I'm factoring it in alongside death on the roads, a very real risk that I take actions to reduce and so with Covid I shall probably permanently limit my exposure to crowded indoors places and continue to wear a good mask. 

[Tamas]

One good point there mongers is that when looking at some possible concerts to go to this year at either of the countries I frequent, I found myself thinking: "does this REALLY worth having a serious case of the flu over"? Which I guess has as much to do with becoming older as the pandemic itself.

[Iormlund]

Again that's another reason why I think we might be back to the beginning and covid finally is starting to look like flu - it's starting to hav a similar IFR in the UK, I expect we will have seasonal flu and covid vaccine shots every winter based on what scientists think are the variants in circulation and I think we'll probably start to have bad covid seasons in the winter, like we have bad flu seasons when they get it wrong and the annual vaccine doesn't work as well against the variants actually in circulation.

Covid does not behave like flu though.

It is not seasonal and is much, much more contagious. So even with the same IFR you'll end up with much higher absolute numbers.

[Sheilbh]

Covid does not behave like flu though.

It is not seasonal and is much, much more contagious. So even with the same IFR you'll end up with much higher absolute numbers.

That's true, my point is it's starting to look similar - both in terms of IFR but also as a manageable, occasional (I think seasonal - winter is going to see more because people crowd indoors) recurring problem like flu.

According to the ONS prevalence surveys since omicron hit the UK we've had about 5-7% of the country testing positive every week. That has put pressure on hospitals and has increased the number of covid deaths to about 10% of deaths (though both, as well as case numbers, are falling now) but not so much that we've had hospitalisations really challenging the NHS as in other waves or a bad flu season and we've not seen higher than average winter deaths. That's what flu is like here at least - we have bad flu seasons and the NHS almost breaks and you have higher than average deaths, we have mild ones and in between. It all depends on how good the vaccine is that year. I think that's where we're moving to as a country with a high level of immunity. I think the challenge is going to be every winter the risk of a bad flu and bad covid season happening at the same time - and I think the investigating taking a joint schedule of covid and flu vaccines is going to be really important.

It will only get more similar as we have regular variant specific boosters, next gen vaccines and better treatments - and if the Pfizer treatment is as good as it promises to be then it'll be far less dangerous than flu.

There's much to agree with in what you've posted' it's now just an extra risk we all run, so up to each of us how seriously we take it.

An average of 260 deaths per day appears acceptable now. 

Yeah I think people have a sense of the dynamics about it. I think the death rate worries people if it's rapidly growing or if it's above average. At the minute that's not really the case - though that may change. The rate grew, is plateauing and is starting to fall and there are fewer deaths than average at this time of year.

I wonder if this is another function of vaccines that because most people are vaccinated and boosted - so there is a high level of immunity - that covid is narrowing in on the most vulnerable even more. So the reason the number of covid-linked deaths is that high but doesn't increase v the average for January is that it is increasingly infecting people who have been vaccinated and have a good level of protection - but the people who are most at risk are people who have other conditions and this is a further complicating factor. It's already an incredibly ruthless disease for the elderly or the vulnerable and maybe it's getting even more like that because they're the people who are getting least benefit from vaccinations (though obviously are still far better off with vaccinations than not)?

[Jacob]

So covid is running through my son's school right now, and he's home with symptoms.

My wife was chatting with the mom of one of his classmates and she said that her kids (age 8 and 5) are not vaccinated because "they watched a video on youtube and now they don't want to get vaccinated, and I have to respect their decision."



I am boggled on more levels than one.

[DGuller]

So covid is running through my sons school right now, and he's home with symptoms.

My wife was chatting with the mom of one of his classmates and she said that her kids (age 8 and 5) are not vaccinated because "they watched a video on youtube and now they don't want to get vaccinated, and I have to respect their decision."



I am boggled on more levels than one.

[The Brain]

That some next level passive aggressive shit right there.

[Jacob]

Conversely, when we told my boy that we'd scheduled his second shot on the weekend his face lit up with happiness and he said "yeay!!!"

[mongers]

Conversely, when we told my boy that we'd scheduled his second shot on the weekend his face lit up with happiness and he said "yeay!!!"

You can certainly tell which parents are taking their family and social responsibilities seriously.

[Zanza]

Pfizer/Biontech now want to get emergency authorization for their vaccine for ages 6 month to five years in the US. I hope that's coming soon in Europe as well. Then basically everybody can get vaccinated. No more reason to do anything to protect those that don't take it then.

[Jacob]

Pfizer/Biontech now want to get emergency authorization for their vaccine for ages 6 month to five years in the US. I hope that's coming soon in Europe as well. Then basically everybody can get vaccinated. No more reason to do anything to protect those that don't take it then.

... except the people who - for whatever reason - can't take them. Because, say, they have dangerous allergies.

But yeah, I'm hoping the 6 mo to 5 year vaccine comes soon as well.

[Iormlund]

First day at work after Covid.

Really fatigued. Didn't notice it that much while I was quarantined, but today I'm just exhausted.

Other than that, throat still a bit sore and that's it.

[mongers]

First day at work after Covid.

Really fatigued. Didn't notice it that much while I was quarantined, but today I'm just exhausted.

Other than that, throat still a bit sore and that's it.

Hopefully you get back into it with a few days.