Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Josquius]

It does sound like its a return to last years thinking of heard immunity.
Or more cynically to hurry up and kill those who are going to die so we're not too over-burdened in winter.

[Tamas]

It does sound like its a return to last years thinking of heard immunity.
Or more cynically to hurry up and kill those who are going to die so we're not too over-burdened in winter.

Yeah I think that's the case. They want those who haven't vaccinated and those who'd get hospitalised/die even with the vaccine out of the way before the winter surge.

Which, again, frustrates me because it makes sense, but then it doesn't make sense to deny my wife her second shot of Pfizer 1 week after literally every other place in the world would have administered it.

[crazy canuck]

It makes sense to kill people off?  No, the UK removing restrictions while their case numbers are surging makes no sense.

[Zanza]

Hopefully they've been able to learn from the UK and we've been sharing data all the time so they and the Americans and everyone else can get ready - hopefully.

As if our politicians are willing to learn. They will just do the same mistakes you did, only four to six weeks later.

[Josquius]

It does sound like its a return to last years thinking of heard immunity.
Or more cynically to hurry up and kill those who are going to die so we're not too over-burdened in winter.

Yeah I think that's the case. They want those who haven't vaccinated and those who'd get hospitalised/die even with the vaccine out of the way before the winter surge.

Which, again, frustrates me because it makes sense, but then it doesn't make sense to deny my wife her second shot of Pfizer 1 week after literally every other place in the world would have administered it.

Take a day or two off and come visit Newcastle to get it? :p

[Sheilbh]

It makes sense to kill people off?  No, the UK removing restrictions while their case numbers are surging makes no sense.

As I say I'm not sure about what's the right course.

The argument is that the link between cases and hospitalisation and death is now far weaker. Both are climbing, from quite low points. So cases in the UK have sky-rocketed in the last six weeks or so, I had a look at Our World in Data for the UK and a few other countries. On cases, the UK is about 370 per million and climbing (though there may be indications that it's starting to flatten) and Spain's about 225 - while the US is about 35, France is about 30 and Canada's about 13 per million. But when you look at the number of hospital patients - as of about a week ago the UK is the lowest of those countries with only 23 covid patients per million while Canada was about 30, the US was about 40, Spain 60 and France 150. Similarly in terms of number of deaths - the UK is the lowest at 0.25 per million, or half Canada's rate. Deaths and hospitalisations are rising, but they are not as directly linked to cases as they were and they are rising more slowly.

Backing this up, the real time estimate from Public Health England the IFR for covid in England is now less than 1 in a 1000, their core estimate is 0.085%. That's 20 fold lower than its peak in early January this year when it was at about 1.7%. And the basic reason for that is vaccines. The risk of covid is really different across age groups and is now focused in the least at risk, because the rest have a decent level of protection - from the latest ONS survey which I posted earlier:


Lots of work to do to get young people vaxxed - and I think there's an argument that we now use AZ with them too, again acknowledging the risks of hospitalisation and death, and open it to 16 and 17 year olds. There are worrying signs that demand is plateauing very early with young people - which is sort of understandable and I think we need a real drive to get them dosed because otherwise I kind of agree with AR and think we should open up rather than wait for people who've chosen not to get vaccinated.

So the argument for ending restrictions is that they were a justified and necessary step to prevent hospitalisation and deaths from covid, and to stop the NHS from being overwhelmed. Because of vaccines the link is considerably weaker and while hospitalisations and deaths are growing, they are growing from a very low base pretty slowly. So the sort of emergency situation that justified restrictions has largely gone (still need travel controls and mandated self-isolation for the non-vaxxed) and they should be lifted. The other side is that the link isn't broken it is just weaker and there will be some levels of deaths as cases are climbing very quickly among the non-vaccinated (mainly young people).

I don't know. I think it's a really tough decision and tougher than any previous call on re-opening or not. My default position is the state and police shouldn't have these powers and shouldn't be making the types of intimate interference in people's lives, but it can be justified in a public health emergency and, personally, I'm just not sure at the minute if they're still proportionate or not. I genuinely don't know. From the government I would like more data on what they are projecting in terms of case numbers, hospitalisations and deaths as there's lots of numbers flying around (though worth noting we are trending below the most optimistic model from before the unlocking started in March). From the people who don't want restrictions lifted, I want to know what they think should stay (and why) and also what their route to ending restrictions is - I think too many are just talking about case numbers not hospitalisation and deaths, but also not acknowledging that these restrictions aren't a good thing and the goal should be to end them. At the minute I don't know where I'd fall.

Edit: And I suppose there's a bit of me that thinks we've been slightly conditioned y the last 18 months into quite intrusive rules about how people live their lives (which was justified) and that's shaping how I approach this. But if we were facing a new disease with an IFR of 0.085% and a relatively low hospitalisation rate and an ongoing vaccine roll-out, would I support introducing these restrictions?

Which, again, frustrates me because it makes sense, but then it doesn't make sense to deny my wife her second shot of Pfizer 1 week after literally every other place in the world would have administered it.

Agreed. Especially as demand for 1st doses among the young seems to be running low now - I'm very much in a just use it/dose anyone camp.

[crazy canuck]

This morning one of our doctors was interviewed about the plans to lift restrictions across Canada and then he was asked about the UK.  His take on it was it made sense to open where vaccination rates were high and the infection rate was dropping. 

He said it was "crazy" to do what is happening in the UK.  His point is not only will it do harm to those living in the UK, but the UK will also likely become a breading ground for further variants which harms everyone in the world.

He also pointed out that the AZ vaccine, while effective, is not as effective as the MNRA vaccines (something like 70% vs. 80%) and since that is mainly what was used in the UK, the UK is playing a very dangerous game.

[Sheilbh]

He also pointed out that the AZ vaccine, while effective, is not as effective as the MNRA vaccines (something like 70% vs. 80%) and since that is mainly what was used in the UK, the UK is playing a very dangerous game.

I think that's wrong. The PHE data is that two doses of Pfizer is 96% effective, AZ is 92% effective. I think there is a bigger difference wth a single dose and there is more of a difference between single dose effectiveness v double dose effectiveness than for the alpha variant. But there's not really much difference:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/998411/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_26.pdf

[crazy canuck]

He also pointed out that the AZ vaccine, while effective, is not as effective as the MNRA vaccines (something like 70% vs. 80%) and since that is mainly what was used in the UK, the UK is playing a very dangerous game.

I think that's wrong. The PHE data is that two doses of Pfizer is 96% effective, AZ is 92% effective. I think there is a bigger difference wth a single dose and there is more of a difference between single dose effectiveness v double dose effectiveness than for the alpha variant. But there's not really much difference:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/998411/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_26.pdf

Right, and if everyone had a second dose your point would stand.  But the UK is not close to that, no one is.  And so his point stands.  Your government is playing with fire here and the explosion could fuck us all over.

[alfred russel]

He also pointed out that the AZ vaccine, while effective, is not as effective as the MNRA vaccines (something like 70% vs. 80%) and since that is mainly what was used in the UK, the UK is playing a very dangerous game.

I think that's wrong. The PHE data is that two doses of Pfizer is 96% effective, AZ is 92% effective. I think there is a bigger difference wth a single dose and there is more of a difference between single dose effectiveness v double dose effectiveness than for the alpha variant. But there's not really much difference:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/998411/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_26.pdf

Right, and if everyone had a second dose your point would stand.  But the UK is not close to that, no one is.  And so his point stands.  Your government is playing with fire here and the explosion could fuck us all over.

There are 7 billion people in the world, the vast majority of which live in less developed places without nearly the access to vaccines as the UK and without the ability to implement the same countermeasures to prevent spread. The idea that the decisions of the UK to relax restrictions are going to "fuck us all over" are truly absurd.

[Sheilbh]

Right, and if everyone had a second dose your point would stand.  But the UK is not close to that, no one is.  And so his point stands.  Your government is playing with fire here and the explosion could fuck us all over.

Okay but if that's the criteria - we will never meet. No country will ever meet it (unless they literally force people to have vaccines) and globally we won't meet it even if we are able to offer everyone a vaccine.

And obviously I think different places will end up with different policies on children so there'll be a chunk of the global population who are not being vaccinated deliberately.

So again - what's the plausible route out? Or do we all have to keep restrictions forever - or lift restrictions domestically but we all become hermit kingdoms?

[Richard Hakluyt]

I agree with AR on this; novel variants will likely come from the half of the world with barely any vaccinations and pitiful healthcare systems.

[crazy canuck]

He also pointed out that the AZ vaccine, while effective, is not as effective as the MNRA vaccines (something like 70% vs. 80%) and since that is mainly what was used in the UK, the UK is playing a very dangerous game.

I think that's wrong. The PHE data is that two doses of Pfizer is 96% effective, AZ is 92% effective. I think there is a bigger difference wth a single dose and there is more of a difference between single dose effectiveness v double dose effectiveness than for the alpha variant. But there's not really much difference:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/998411/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_26.pdf

Right, and if everyone had a second dose your point would stand.  But the UK is not close to that, no one is.  And so his point stands.  Your government is playing with fire here and the explosion could fuck us all over.

There are 7 billion people in the world, the vast majority of which live in less developed places without nearly the access to vaccines as the UK and without the ability to implement the same countermeasures to prevent spread. The idea that the decisions of the UK to relax restrictions are going to "fuck us all over" are truly absurd.

People in the UK tend to be more wealthy on average and as a result far more likely to travel and spread the variants.  Also the UK is a more likely spot for people travel to, also spreading the variants.  Ignoring that reality is silly.

[crazy canuck]

Right, and if everyone had a second dose your point would stand.  But the UK is not close to that, no one is.  And so his point stands.  Your government is playing with fire here and the explosion could fuck us all over.

Okay but if that's the criteria - we will never meet. No country will ever meet it (unless they literally force people to have vaccines) and globally we won't meet it even if we are able to offer everyone a vaccine.

And obviously I think different places will end up with different policies on children so there'll be a chunk of the global population who are not being vaccinated deliberately.

So again - what's the plausible route out? Or do we all have to keep restrictions forever - or lift restrictions domestically but we all become hermit kingdoms?

You have missed the point.  Your country is relaxing restrictions when infection rates there are RISING. 

[Sheilbh]

But that's why I think the quite strict (but I think possibly still inadequate) border controls are important - and they're not being lifted. All the travel restrictions will still be in place, the changes are about what you can do in the U.K.