Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[crazy canuck]

So my local health authority, Edmonton-Twin Brooks, has a total population of 75,685.  During the pandemic we have seen 2,800 total cases, and 27 deaths.

Right now we have 5 active cases.

That is excellent news BB 

[garbon]

In terms of why now - if lifting them isn't going to materially shift the hospitalisation/death rate then I think that's enough of an argument.

Do we have evidence of this?

[Sheilbh]

In terms of why now - if lifting them isn't going to materially shift the hospitalisation/death rate then I think that's enough of an argument.

Do we have evidence of this?

Oh no - that's just probably my test and how material is key because I don't think the police should be able to police this sort of thing in normal circumstances so giving them that power has to be because we're in an extraordinary circumstance where it's a proportionate and a necessary response.

I think if it stops being necessary or proportionate then we need to step back bascially.

I think Patrick Vallance mentioned more models and data being released at the end of the week so that may give some indication.

[garbon]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/06/double-vaccinated-contacts-no-longer-need-to-self-isolate-from-16-august-says-sajid-javid

Double-jabbed contacts won't need to self-isolate from 16 August, says Javid

Close contacts of people in England who have tested positive for Covid will not have to self-isolate if they have received both their vaccinations, or if they are under 18, Sajid Javid has announced to the Commons.

The policy will come into force from 16 August. Adults will need to have had their second vaccination at least 10 days beforehand, the health secretary told MPs on Tuesday.

"We will soon be able to take a risk-based approach that recognises the huge benefits that the vaccines provide both to people who get the jab and their loved ones too," Javid said.

People will, however, still be obliged to self-isolate as before if they test positive for Covid.

The end to self-isolation for those under 18, more details of which will be given by the education secretary, Gavin Williamson, later on Tuesday, comes after figures showed the number of children missing school in England because of Covid last week shot up by 66%, with 641,000 out of the classroom.

...

Does that mean you can test positive and not be at danger of transmitting the virus?

Edit: I get it now. It is if you are double vaxxed and had contact with someone who later tested positive, you are all good to keep moving about.

[garbon]

Interesting look at what 'personal responsibility' appears to mean by current statements from key politicians. Those in bold seem to have suggested they plan to go mask free all the time from the 19th. Not so dishy.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/06/to-mask-or-not-to-mask-what-will-johnson-and-others-do-after-19-july

Boris Johnson has said he will continue to wear a mask in "crowded places" after mandatory requirements are dropped in England on 19 July.

...

So how are other politicians and experts interpreting their personal responsibility?

Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, has said that he will stop wearing a mask entirely "as soon as possible" after it is no longer legally required in England.

George Eustice, the environment secretary, has also said that he wants to "shed those masks".

Robert Jenrick, the housing secretary, is similarly bullish, saying he would no longer wear a mask once the requirement was lifted, admitting, "I don't particularly want to wear a mask."

Priti Patel, the home secretary, has made no secret of her desire to stop wearing a mask but hasn't said exactly when that will be. "I would love to, you know, take the mask off," she said. "But at the right time. I will do that when we are in the clear."

Sajid Javid, the new health secretary, has been more specific about what he considers his "personal responsibility" to be. He will, he has said, continue to wear a mask in enclosed spaces and carry one with him "for the foreseeable future". He said it was the "responsible thing to do". He added: "If I'm standing next to someone and they for some reason feel uncomfortable with me not wearing a mask, I will wear a mask."

Helen Whateley, the care minister, has said she is "looking forward to not having to wear a face mask so much" but has said she might not abandon it "entirely" after 19 July. "I anticipate there may be times where it is appropriate to wear it if I am somewhere that's crowded, that might make sense," she said. Asked if she would keep wearing a mask on a busy train, she replied: "I think I might."

Prof Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer for England, been very clear that there are three situations in which he will continue to wear masks. The first is "any situation which was indoors and crowded, or indoors with close proximity to other people". The second is when "any competent authority" required him to do so. The third was "as a point of common courtesy" when "someone else was uncomfortable if I did not wear a mask".

Sir Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser, has said he will take "exactly the same" approach as Whitty. "Masks are most effective at preventing somebody else catching the disease from you," he said.

Adam Finn, a member of the government's Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, has also said he will "certainly be continuing to wear a mask if I've got any symptoms or if I'm in an enclosed space with lots of other people for a prolonged period of time — indefinitely in fact".

Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London, has said that he has yet to decide because "the wearing of face coverings on public transport helps to reduce the spread of Covid, and crucially gives Londoners confidence to travel on the network".

[Legbiter]

I think if it stops being necessary or proportionate then we need to step back bascially.

Yeah the UK is doing well. Imagine the situation today if there were still no effective vaccines and the delta variant running around. 

[Sheilbh]

Yeah the UK is doing well. Imagine the situation today if there were still no effective vaccines and the delta variant running around.

There are varying estimates - and a really good David Spiegelhalter article in the Guardian about how they work etc. But it is clear that with this delta wave, the vaccines have saved thousands of lives in this country - and I imagine as delta spreads in Europe and the US they will save thousands more.

I think without them we would be in full lockdown like earlier this year or last spring.

Does that mean you can test positive and not be at danger of transmitting the virus?

Edit: I get it now. It is if you are double vaxxed and had contact with someone who later tested positive, you are all good to keep moving about.

That sort of makes sense - especially as self-isolation is one of the few legal restrictions that will remain. If you're double vaxxed plus 14 days and it is a sort of material benefit to being vaxxed- like AR was saying.

[Tamas]

Interesting look at what 'personal responsibility' appears to mean by current statements from key politicians. Those in bold seem to have suggested they plan to go mask free all the time from the 19th. Not so dishy.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/06/to-mask-or-not-to-mask-what-will-johnson-and-others-do-after-19-july

Boris Johnson has said he will continue to wear a mask in "crowded places" after mandatory requirements are dropped in England on 19 July.

...

So how are other politicians and experts interpreting their personal responsibility?

Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, has said that he will stop wearing a mask entirely "as soon as possible" after it is no longer legally required in England.

George Eustice, the environment secretary, has also said that he wants to "shed those masks".

Robert Jenrick, the housing secretary, is similarly bullish, saying he would no longer wear a mask once the requirement was lifted, admitting, "I don't particularly want to wear a mask."

Priti Patel, the home secretary, has made no secret of her desire to stop wearing a mask but hasn't said exactly when that will be. "I would love to, you know, take the mask off," she said. "But at the right time. I will do that when we are in the clear."

Sajid Javid, the new health secretary, has been more specific about what he considers his "personal responsibility" to be. He will, he has said, continue to wear a mask in enclosed spaces and carry one with him "for the foreseeable future". He said it was the "responsible thing to do". He added: "If I'm standing next to someone and they for some reason feel uncomfortable with me not wearing a mask, I will wear a mask."

Helen Whateley, the care minister, has said she is "looking forward to not having to wear a face mask so much" but has said she might not abandon it "entirely" after 19 July. "I anticipate there may be times where it is appropriate to wear it if I am somewhere that's crowded, that might make sense," she said. Asked if she would keep wearing a mask on a busy train, she replied: "I think I might."

Prof Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer for England, been very clear that there are three situations in which he will continue to wear masks. The first is "any situation which was indoors and crowded, or indoors with close proximity to other people". The second is when "any competent authority" required him to do so. The third was "as a point of common courtesy" when "someone else was uncomfortable if I did not wear a mask".

Sir Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser, has said he will take "exactly the same" approach as Whitty. "Masks are most effective at preventing somebody else catching the disease from you," he said.

Adam Finn, a member of the government's Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, has also said he will "certainly be continuing to wear a mask if I've got any symptoms or if I'm in an enclosed space with lots of other people for a prolonged period of time — indefinitely in fact".

Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London, has said that he has yet to decide because "the wearing of face coverings on public transport helps to reduce the spread of Covid, and crucially gives Londoners confidence to travel on the network".

This pretend gung ho attitude which they like to showcase about near everything is sickening even when not applied to this topic.

[Tamas]

A significant portion of the Hungarian over-60 population was vaccinated with Sinopharm. Efficacy has long been a concern and a lot of people have been paying for antibody tests for months now. The council of Budapest is also planning to offer free ones I think.

Due to a comment of one of my friends, Facebook led me to the post of a TV news show gathering feedback there, asking people to send their stories of antibody tests if they have got Sinopharm. They have 300k followers so keep that in mind, but still the 300-400 (didn't bother to count exactly) reports of people (most of them couples) of having negative antibody tests weeks/months after the second Sinopharm shot (several of them took 2-3 tests hoping at least one would show positive) is worrying. The delta variant will wreak havoc there.

EDIT: there are also several reports where they went for tests as a whole family and those of the family who received Pfizer (in one case AZ) showed antibodies and those with Sino did not.

I guess this would quite well explain why Chile had big issues despite high vaccinations some months ago.

[celedhring]

The delta variant is now running rampant over here. We're having infection rates not seen since the 2020 peak, and some regions (like Catalonia) are dialing back reopenings. Conversely, since it's mainly affecting the unvaccinated young, hospitalization/death rates are extremely low.

If this variant had caught us without vaccines it would have been a disaster. It probably will be in many parts of the world.

[Josquius]

I am confident for the Continent and delta. They've had aa much slower lead up and made more progress with vaccines than the UK did.

[Sheilbh]

I am confident for the Continent and delta. They've had aa much slower lead up and made more progress with vaccines than the UK did.

The UK is still further ahead in terms of vaccines so has a higher level of protection. UK is at about 50% of the population fully dosed, EU is at about 35% (and double doses matter with delta).

That's probably still enough to protect the most vulnerable but I'm not sure they're necessarily in a better place to face this wave. Hopefully they've been able to learn from the UK and we've been sharing data all the time so they and the Americans and everyone else can get ready - hopefully.

[Sheilbh]

I saw an interview with Neil Ferguson last night in which he said he's "moderately optimistic" about re-opening, but government will need to be responsive and flexible if the situation changes. Which I think is where I roughly am.

I also saw the latest ONS antibody survey (green is antibodies, light blue is first dose, dark blue is second dose). All the older groups are around 95-100%:


It feels like we really need to drive vaccines in these younger groups and I'm beginning to wonder if there's a supply issue because they don't get AZ? But also they don't get AZ because at the time the UK had very low transmission and the risks of the vaccine were pretty closely balanced with the covid risks. I'm no wondering if, because we're in a far higher level of transmission, that risk picture has shifted and the JCVI should shift their recommendation that, given the context, the risks from covid are now significantly higher than the risks from the vaccine?

I'm still very unsure about the full re-opening of indoor venues + end of rule of six, and masks on public transport - but we'll see. Also I think there have been areas where Labour could have been more aggressive on covid but their current policy that restrictions should remain until all buildings open to the public are fitted with new ventilations strikes me as wildly impractical and wrong - I'm slightly worried about the way the restrictions have been normalised rather than being seen as an emergency/use of emergency powers because of a crisis.

[Josquius]

I am confident for the Continent and delta. They've had aa much slower lead up and made more progress with vaccines than the UK did.

The UK is still further ahead in terms of vaccines so has a higher level of protection. UK is at about 50% of the population fully dosed, EU is at about 35% (and double doses matter with delta).

That's probably still enough to protect the most vulnerable but I'm not sure they're necessarily in a better place to face this wave. Hopefully they've been able to learn from the UK and we've been sharing data all the time so they and the Americans and everyone else can get ready - hopefully.

What I mean is Europe is further ahead than we were relative to the spread of the delta variant.

[mongers]

Why is the government ending all restrictions in schools on the 19th July, wouldn't it make sense to keep those in place for the additional final 4/5 days of the summer term?

Or do they feel the emerging summer wave of infections needs a nice bump-up from school children 'running riot' for the last week at school?