Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Sheilbh]

Although having said that I remember Spain getting the UK variant early and it became dominant with no real effect so...?

Maybe Spain's first wave had a lot more cases than believed so there's just a high level of immunity?

[celedhring]

Although having said that I remember Spain getting the UK variant early and it became dominant with no real effect so...?

Maybe Spain's first wave had a lot more cases than believed so there's just a high level of immunity?

Yeah, our epidemiologists were surprised at the lack of impact from the UK variant. We had a lot more cases in school environments, but when looking at the big numbers it was just a blip.

We still had big waves in autumn-winter 2020 so I'm not sure built-up immunity had much to do.

[alfred russel]

Hopefully it's just a blip and I'm wrong but, especially given the anti-vaxx polling in France I slightly worry they'll end up like the US.

What is wrong with being the US? Our daily cases are down to 3 per 100k and falling...from a spot about as low as we've been since this started.

The handful of people who are dying are either anti vaxxers or too indifferent to get the vaccine.

[Admiral Yi]

What is wrong with being the US?

We're stalling out short of herd immunity.

[Zanza]

There will be no herd immunity, regardless of vaccination rates. Herd immunity is an agricultural concept that assumes isolated herds.

Cov 2 is now endemic in the human population like other viruses and there are no isolated human "herds" due to international travel.

Either you are immune from vaccination or prior infection or you will eventually get the virus, especially now with the more aggressive transmission. It might take more time with lower case numbers, but the new variants can lead to explosive outbreaks in unvaccinated populations.

[Jacob]

....I mean. I know the Greek alphabet letters are good but it literally came from India

I think it's to minimize the fuel made available to racists and what-abouters painting the issue as one "from over there". It also avoids emotionally charging any investigations into transmissions etc (where countries may want to "clear" their names or avoid getting stuck with any negative associations). And, at this point, is it actually completely clear that the Delta variant originated in India, or is it just where it was first discovered? It'd be a little awkward to sometime later go "so, the India variant actually originated in the UK, but went undetected until after the name stuck.

It also avoids any issues of what to do if a country is thought to originate more than one variant.

[Sheilbh]

I think it's to minimize the fuel made available to racists and what-abouters painting the issue as one "from over there". It also avoids emotionally charging any investigations into transmissions etc (where countries may want to "clear" their names or avoid getting stuck with any negative associations). And, at this point, is it actually completely clear that the Delta variant originated in India, or is it just where it was first discovered? It'd be a little awkward to sometime later go "so, the India variant actually originated in the UK, but went undetected until after the name stuck.

It also avoids any issues of what to do if a country is thought to originate more than one variant.

Oh yeah I get all of that. My point was just we know the delta variant's done very well in India - given that I'm not convinced of the impact of heat on it

We're stalling out short of herd immunity.

Yeah and unvaccinated people will continue to get sick, be hospitalised and die. I think that's a bad, sad thing that is avoidable especially now we have a vaccine and the US has, because of its politics, failed. I don't think it matters if those people somehow "deserve" it because of their choices - those deaths are still preventable and it's sad that they aren't being prevented.

[celedhring]

India has absurd levels of overcrowding though.

I mention heat because both in summer 2020 and so far summer 2021 the virus was heavily supressed in Spain, with very light restrictions in place. There might other reasons, like people just being outdoors more.

[alfred russel]

What is wrong with being the US?

We're stalling out short of herd immunity.

Why do you think our case numbers have fallen so dramatically?

[The Minsky Moment]

Why do you think our case numbers have fallen so dramatically?

+ Almost half the country has been vaccinated
+ Some of the larger, more dense cities have hit 70%+
+ The Delta variant is just starting to penetrate.

If the Delta variant has a true R0 double the regular strain and if vaccination continues to stall then the case numbers will hit a floor.

[Sheilbh]

This is good:
https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1407255106911977473?s=20

Video of percent of people by age with antibodies. Overall across the UK 80% of adults have covid antibodies which could be from vaccines or infections but is great to see

[viper37]

Yeah and unvaccinated people will continue to get sick, be hospitalised and die. I think that's a bad, sad thing that is avoidable especially now we have a vaccine and the US has, because of its politics, failed. I don't think it matters if those people somehow "deserve" it because of their choices - those deaths are still preventable and it's sad that they aren't being prevented.

the problem is that a new mutant could arise if it keeps spreading, and if it crosses from unvaccinated to vaccinated (not 100% protected from mild form), eventually, we could get one that has totally undesirable mutations: vaccine/immunity avoidance or much more dangerous to healthy/young people.
Granted, MRna vaccines can be adapted quickly, but they still need to be produced and you still need to inject people with the new one, while also maintaning capacity for other vaccines (like the flu vaccines). 

If we have heard imminuty, there's much less chance of the virus spreading.

[Legbiter]

Today we'll have vaccinated every age cohort at least once. Over half have had 2 jabs.

[The Minsky Moment]

At the height of COVID in the US it was killing more people every single day then were killed by the 9-11 terrorists.
Dodging vaccination should be about as socially acceptable as sending checks to al-Qaeda.

[The Larch]

The Spanish consulate in Shanghai is warning that China is forcefully hospitalizing foreign residents in the country upon their arrival for 3-4 days if they show that their level of Covid-19 antibodies exceeds a certain limit (checked via blood test in the airport), and during the time in hospital they're performed a series of invasive tests, as well as having to pay for their own supplies during their stay. The whole time they're never provided an explanation, and they're made to sign documents in Chinese without translation.

I've checked for a piece of news on this but couldn't find anything. You guys with contacts over there have heard about this?