Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[The Larch]

I think several record days in vaccination campaigns in Europe - Spain, France and Germany I think yesterday. Which is great news and suggests that maybe the worst of the supply issues are over and it's now going to just be about rolling it out?

I think it was always expected that by april most supply issues would be solved, and rollout would pick up speed faster and faster until the summer.

[Sheilbh]

Hopefully we don't start suspending before the regulators have reviewed - but the EMA are investigating reports of blood-clotting issues with the J&J vaccine. Apparently there's been four cases (one in clinical trials and three in roll-out in the US) and one death. No sign or evidence of a causal link. But this may just end up being another thing where a new side effect is listed and hopefully won't impact the start of the roll out in Europe (or the UK if they follow suit).

[Zanza]

I think several record days in vaccination campaigns in Europe - Spain, France and Germany I think yesterday. Which is great news and suggests that maybe the worst of the supply issues are over and it's now going to just be about rolling it out?

Germany finally started vaccinations in the 30,000+ GP practices across the country. That doubled the figures compared to the central vaccination centres before. But supply of vaccine is still constrained. But looking better now. I hope they keep that velocity.

[Barrister]

How bad is Alberta's third wave?  Oh, exactly this bad:

[DGuller]

Vaccines can't come fast enough.

[Sheilbh]

Vaccines can't come fast enough.

Yeah though until we get to sort of Israeli levels from what I understand they lessen the impact rather than change the direction of infections on their own.

And in terms of impact it's key to prioritise them to the right people - I keep seeing Italians popping off online because they prioritised key workers not the elderly (and the definition of a "key worker" was very broad so a lot of comparatively low risk people got doses while elderly people didn't). That mistake is having an effect on their death rates.

[Legbiter]

I wonder what the long term lessons are for pandemic control. 

Way I see it, lockdowns are just crude last-ditch efforts . Societies should aim for lockouts instead of lockdowns. Hunker down and eliminate the virus from an area, then open up rapidly once its' gone and link to other green areas, relax all internal restrictions but remain paranoid and test everyone coming in at the border. Otherwise you just yoyo between strict curfews every couple of months which gradually peter out into noncompliance or even open defiance by large swathes of the public.

[Eddie Teach]

I don't think that's feasible on continents.

[alfred russel]

To point out once again the extreme stupidity of both sides:



https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/04/09/half-vaccine-rejectors-believe-safe-travel-now

Take a moment to digest the incredible stupidity in this poll. Over half of people who have already been vaccinated are somewhat or very worried about contracting covid-19. But over 70% of those that are refusing to ever get vaccinated are either not worried or not too worried.

What is really fascinating is that the percentage of people "very worried" about personally contracting the virus is almost identical between those who have received the vaccine and those that say they will get vaccinated. "I believe in science" apparently has its limits.

[celedhring]

Vaccines aren't 100% effective from day 1, you know. I'd answer "somewhat worried" if I'd got my first shot during, say, during the past 10 days or so.

[alfred russel]

Vaccines aren't 100% effective from day 1, you know. I'd answer "somewhat worried" if I'd got my first shot during, say, during the past 10 days or so.

Yep, that explains some of it. But...we've been vaccinating people since December and the poll dates are April 3-April 6. Over half of people that have been vaccinated aren't in the two most worried buckets because they are waiting on enough time to pass for effectiveness to kick in. Many of them are idiots with irrational fear.

[DGuller]

You're looking at a very biased partially self-selected sample.  The people who got vaccinated are either at an objectively higher risk of Covid to begin with, or are more concerned about it.  The people who aren't are either lower risk, or lower IQ.

[alfred russel]

You're looking at a very biased partially self-selected sample.  The people who got vaccinated are either at an objectively higher risk of Covid to begin with, or are more concerned about it.  The people who aren't are either lower risk, or lower IQ.

100%, but don't you agree that the concern indicated in the poll demonstrates that many if not most people receiving the vaccine are continuing to worry at unwarranted levels?

[Sheilbh]

You're looking at a very biased partially self-selected sample.  The people who got vaccinated are either at an objectively higher risk of Covid to begin with, or are more concerned about it.  The people who aren't are either lower risk, or lower IQ.

100%, but don't you agree that the concern indicated in the poll demonstrates that many if not most people receiving the vaccine are continuing to worry at unwarranted levels?

Sort of. I think caution is right until most people have had a chance to get a vaccine - there are early signs Israel might be at herd immunity but I think the UK and US are still a month or two away from that. It also makes sense to be cautious about the risks of variants, but that's an issue primarily of border controls quarantines and testing.

Having said that I don't think people have yet grasped the impact vaccines will have especially these ones which are generally performing really well (for example the clinical trials couldn't establish whether they reduce transmission - there is very strong real world evidence they do significantly). As everyone kept on saying they are game changer. The game has changed. And I don't think that's sunk in yet, I still see lots of people basically saying even after vaccinations and herd immunity we won't go back to normal which, with a few exceptions, I think is nonsense.

[alfred russel]

Sort of.

I don't think there is "sort of" wiggle room. Millions of vaccines have been administered and there is plenty of clinical data. Personal risks to the already vaccinated are trivial.

If you've gotten the vaccine with sufficient time for it to take effect, and still are personally scared, you are some version of an idiot or a hypochondriac.

Maybe some version of the virus will arise that will be both deadly and able to beat the vaccines. Maybe disease resistant TB will kill us too. Normal people shouldn't be losing sleep over this stuff.