Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[DGuller]

Speaking of per capita infections, what's going on in the Northeast and most of Midwest?  Those are the darkest areas on the CDC map of 7-day infection rates, especially NYC and New Jersey.  I don't think any policies were relaxed recently, and at least where I'm living, the compliance with mask wearing is high and hasn't changed noticeably either.

[Jacob]

Canada set to surpass the US in per capita number of Covid infections.

https://edmontonjournal.com/news/canada/canada-could-soon-surpass-u-s-in-number-of-covid-cases-relative-to-population/wcm/4a244564-c8d0-471b-a966-66cef0a4d0a4?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1617898979

I guess vaccination makes a big difference.

[Barrister]

Canada set to surpass the US in per capita number of Covid infections.

https://edmontonjournal.com/news/canada/canada-could-soon-surpass-u-s-in-number-of-covid-cases-relative-to-population/wcm/4a244564-c8d0-471b-a966-66cef0a4d0a4?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1617898979

I guess vaccination makes a big difference.

Oh there's no doubt.

Now the US may still yet again surpass us as the variants take hold down there.

[Barrister]

Speaking of per capita infections, what's going on in the Northeast and most of Midwest?  Those are the darkest areas on the CDC map of 7-day infection rates, especially NYC and New Jersey.  I don't think any policies were relaxed recently, and at least where I'm living, the compliance with mask wearing is high and hasn't changed noticeably either.

Variants?  Or we really don't know.

Really not sure what's happening in Alberta for example.  We had some modest re-openings, which is now backed up, but nothing on the ground that should explain the huge surge we're now seeing.  If if you take variants into account they're still only ~40% of new cases.

[Tamas]

A sister of a man who died of the blood clot has come forward in the UK and, on behalf of the family, been talking to the press - Telegraph and BBC so far with his story but mainly to urge people to get their jab:
"Despite what has happened to our family, we strongly believe that everyone should go for their first and second doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine. Emotionally, we are completely and utterly furious. We are suffering. But there's nothing in our minds to be really furious about. My brother was just extraordinarily unlucky."

"If we all have the vaccine, a few of us might have a blood clot but the evidence is that fewer people will die. We trust the process, we trust the regulator, and despite what has happened to our family we don't want people to be scared off. That's the message we want to get across."

It's incredibly public-minded and rational of that family. I very much doubt I'd be anywhere near as coherent if I'd just had a family tragedy like that.

Not that it removes much from the nobility of the gesture but the sister is a doctor working in a pharmacy as I understand, so she has a better grasp of the whole thing than most people in her situation would.

[Admiral Yi]

Speaking of per capita infections, what's going on in the Northeast and most of Midwest?  Those are the darkest areas on the CDC map of 7-day infection rates, especially NYC and New Jersey.  I don't think any policies were relaxed recently, and at least where I'm living, the compliance with mask wearing is high and hasn't changed noticeably either.

I think the Midwest is pretty much Dontgiveashitistan.

[Tamas]

BTW I missed the part where the 30-odd cases of AZ blood clots were upped to 79 in the UK, which doubles your chances of getting them:

According to the most recent data from the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA), up to and including 31 March 2021, there were 79 UK reports of blood clotting cases alongside low levels of platelets among people given the AstraZeneca vaccine. Nineteen of those people died.

[alfred russel]

Speaking of per capita infections, what's going on in the Northeast and most of Midwest?  Those are the darkest areas on the CDC map of 7-day infection rates, especially NYC and New Jersey.  I don't think any policies were relaxed recently, and at least where I'm living, the compliance with mask wearing is high and hasn't changed noticeably either.

I know I've now been going on this for over a year now, but how many more instances do you need before considering the potential that restrictive policies are not the main driver of transmission rates?

[Sheilbh]

Speaking of per capita infections, what's going on in the Northeast and most of Midwest?  Those are the darkest areas on the CDC map of 7-day infection rates, especially NYC and New Jersey.  I don't think any policies were relaxed recently, and at least where I'm living, the compliance with mask wearing is high and hasn't changed noticeably either.

Possibly first and worst hit by variants? Just like with the initial virus?

BTW I missed the part where the 30-odd cases of AZ blood clots were upped to 79 in the UK, which doubles your chances of getting them:

Including 19 deaths. It doesn't quite double because it's looking at a different date range. So while it is higher, it is out of 20 million doses  - so it's about 4 in a million risk (and, interestingly, so far no recorded case in the EU or UK of it happening after the second dose) which explains why it wasn't spotted in the clinical trials.

We don't have all the details but I think 2/3s are women and the age range of incidents in the UK is 19 to 79. From everything I've seen it's not clear if the risk is higher in young people or if it's just that the covid risk is lower so on balance less worth taking.

Not that it removes much from the nobility of the gesture but the sister is a doctor working in a pharmacy as I understand, so she has a better grasp of the whole thing than most people in her situation would.

Yeah. I imagine she probably has a better understanding medical risks than most of us - it's like the often mentioned risk of Guillain-Barre syndrome which is a side effect of the flu vaccine I think, which she probably helps distribute every year. She's probably been giving people covid jabs too

[viper37]

What I find infuriating and dishonest in the analysis on Languish is that this whole year when I compare southern US states to northern ones, I get as a reply "apples to oranges, the climate is much better suited to outdoor activities in the south" but when we go to European countries, with the most northerly having the lowest death toll, that analysis never gets mentioned.

Brain will confirm if true, but Swedes have the reputation of really appreciating the outdoor living, especially compared to a similar climate over here where most people tend to go indoor during winter.  Even if alpine skiing is a popular sport, most people will ski for a couple of hours than find refuge inside.

We do spend most of our time indoor during winter, most work vacations and holydays are during spring&summer.  When people have 5-6 weeks of vacation, you will see them taking a week or two off during winter to visit a sunny country, but the rest is taken during summer time, end of July/early August.  School is off for these 2 months too and only closes for 2 weeks during Christmas time. 

So, yeah, cultural habits, as in the time you spend outdoor seems to matter a lot with this disease.

Given the popularity of winter sports in scandinavian countries, I'd say skiing is quite popular in all of them.  More so than in France, England and Italy.

[viper37]

Speaking of per capita infections, what's going on in the Northeast and most of Midwest?  Those are the darkest areas on the CDC map of 7-day infection rates, especially NYC and New Jersey.  I don't think any policies were relaxed recently, and at least where I'm living, the compliance with mask wearing is high and hasn't changed noticeably either.

I know I've now been going on this for over a year now, but how many more instances do you need before considering the potential that restrictive policies are not the main driver of transmission rates?

indoor contacts are the main driver of transmission rate.  duration X viral load.

if people limit their contacts voluntarily, there's no mean for restrictive policies.  Since we don't do that, we have restrictive policies.

A city like New York with subway, buses and trains used by a good part of the population is going to have lots more contacts than a city like Atlanta.  So far, you specialists say that most of the deaths beyond 100 000 could have been avoided.  You're at 559 000 deaths.  Make the count.

[viper37]

it's like the often mentioned risk of Guillain-Barre syndrome which is a side effect of the flu vaccine I think,

side effect of the flu and other infections, maybe (strong correlation found, no definite causation found).

[Berkut]

You poor thing. So infuriating, how selective the analysis is, when YOU are so completely objective and science and data driven!

A shit ton more than you people are. Want to go back to the statements being made a year ago and tally up the obviously incorrect statements I made versus others?

But...the burden really should be on the side of people shutting down public spaces, prohibiting people gathering, etc. to show there is a demonstrable public benefit from doing so. More than a year after we began "15 days to stop the spread" that doesn't seem like an unreasonable ask.

Oh, I think we've all tallied up all the bullshit you've spouted off on. The irony that you are such a classic case of straight out cognitive dissonance, where you just assume you are right 100% of the time, and then manufacture all the "evidence" for how right you are and then crow incessantly about your own brilliance. It's hilarious. Such a perfect, and I mean PERFECT example of the Dunning Kruger effect could not be manufactured!

The best part is how you then whine and cry about how infuriariating it is that everyone else, literally every single other poster, is "dishonest". Yep, everyone else is wrong, and you are the only one who is right. Infuriating! Outrageous! How can it be that EVERYONE else is all wrong, you are so very very obviously right, and only the dishonesty of everyone else could possibly explain the discrepancy! What other possible explanation could there be, when you KNOW with such absolute certainty how right you are now, have always been before, and certainly will be in the future? So smart! So right!

Keep it up! You are doing great!

[alfred russel]

Oh, I think we've all tallied up all the bullshit you've spouted off on.

Stuff that was factually incorrect or just that you disagreed with? Plenty of the latter; if there is one of the former I haven't seen it.

[Sheilbh]

I think several record days in vaccination campaigns in Europe - Spain, France and Germany I think yesterday. Which is great news and suggests that maybe the worst of the supply issues are over and it's now going to just be about rolling it out?