Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[The Brain]

Sweden's pandemic experiment

Seems it is a failure, after all.  Who would have thought?
Oh, and you know the "we do not aim for her immunity at all, it is not a strategy" ?  Yeah, that was crap too.  In private, they admit they were aiming for herd immunity.  Which is still not attained.

We'll know when it's over and the detailed analysis has been done. Sweden may or may not be a failure, but there are certainly countries that are much much worse, for instance the UK which managed to combine draconian measures and a much higher death toll per capita (so far).

[DGuller]

The most damning statistic is comparisons against the other members of the overachieving Nordic quartet.  Norway, Denmark, and Finland have all been one of the few countries that have really dodged all bullets coming their way so far.  All four of these countries usually overachieve together, there is no obvious reason why Sweden was doomed to do so much worse this time.

[Caliga]

The most damning statistic is comparisons against the other members of the overachieving Nordic quartet.  Norway, Denmark, and Finland have all been one of the few countries that have really dodged all bullets coming their way so far.  All four of these countries usually overachieve together, there is no obvious reason why Sweden was doomed to do so much worse this time.

Must be the King's fault, then.  Off with his head.

[Sheilbh]

The most damning statistic is comparisons against the other members of the overachieving Nordic quartet.  Norway, Denmark, and Finland have all been one of the few countries that have really dodged all bullets coming their way so far.  All four of these countries usually overachieve together, there is no obvious reason why Sweden was doomed to do so much worse this time.

Yeah - if you look at that excess deaths comparison from the FT, for the % above historical average, Sweden is among countries in Western Europe that have had pretty bad pandemics. It's around Switzerland (which I think has a similar policy), Austria, Netherlands and Belgium.

The contrast with Norway, Denmark and Finland is incredible - because they are the only countries (on that chart) in Europe with almost East Asian levels of excess deaths. They succeeded in really containing it. And from a quick look at EuroStat it looks like Denmark and Finland also had less economic shock and more recovery, so I'm not sure the economy was necessarily helped much either.

[viper37]

Sweden's pandemic experiment

Seems it is a failure, after all.  Who would have thought?
Oh, and you know the "we do not aim for her immunity at all, it is not a strategy" ?  Yeah, that was crap too.  In private, they admit they were aiming for herd immunity.  Which is still not attained.

We'll know when it's over and the detailed analysis has been done. Sweden may or may not be a failure, but there are certainly countries that are much much worse, for instance the UK which managed to combine draconian measures and a much higher death toll per capita (so far).

Compare apples to apples.  Denmark, Finland and Norway have similar demographics, culture and climate.  Yet, their death toll is a blip on the radars compared to Sweden.

[The Brain]

The most damning statistic is comparisons against the other members of the overachieving Nordic quartet.  Norway, Denmark, and Finland have all been one of the few countries that have really dodged all bullets coming their way so far.  All four of these countries usually overachieve together, there is no obvious reason why Sweden was doomed to do so much worse this time.

Usually overachieve together during serious pandemics?

[DGuller]

I think the secret to success of the other three is that is that people there tend to trust the government to do the right thing, and understand that you can defer to the judgment of authorities on some matters without giving up your freedom.  I think that's also the secret to Sweden's failure, where unfortunately that faith was misplaced in this instance.

[The Brain]

Sweden's pandemic experiment

Seems it is a failure, after all.  Who would have thought?
Oh, and you know the "we do not aim for her immunity at all, it is not a strategy" ?  Yeah, that was crap too.  In private, they admit they were aiming for herd immunity.  Which is still not attained.

We'll know when it's over and the detailed analysis has been done. Sweden may or may not be a failure, but there are certainly countries that are much much worse, for instance the UK which managed to combine draconian measures and a much higher death toll per capita (so far).

Compare apples to apples.  Denmark, Finland and Norway have similar demographics, culture and climate.  Yet, their death toll is a blip on the radars compared to Sweden.

Do you know the impact of demographics, culture, and climate for Covid-19? Even experts are all over the place.

[DGuller]

The most damning statistic is comparisons against the other members of the overachieving Nordic quartet.  Norway, Denmark, and Finland have all been one of the few countries that have really dodged all bullets coming their way so far.  All four of these countries usually overachieve together, there is no obvious reason why Sweden was doomed to do so much worse this time.

Usually overachieve together during serious pandemics?

Overachieve together on all things that depend on countries functioning well.  If Norway ranks #1 on the number of orgasms experienced per capita per year, you can be sure that Finland, Denmark, and Sweden would probably be in the top 5 as well, definitely in the top 10.  Covid seems to be on of the few time where one is doing so much worse than the rest.

[Sheilbh]

I think the secret to success of the other three is that is that people there tend to trust the government to do the right thing, and understand that you can defer to the judgment of authorities on some matters without giving up your freedom.  I think that's also the secret to Sweden's failure, where unfortunately that faith was misplaced in this instance.

Although I think one of the huge surprises for has been social trust in the UK is far stronger than I expected. There's been restrictions in one form or other for the last year that have really changed the way people live on a day to day basis and the vast majority of people have stuck with them and really tried to follow them - and if they'd actually given up or resisted it all would have collapsed because we don't have the police force to compel compliance. I think that's true across Europe, but from my perspective it's striking here because I'd always read and thought that the UK/"Anglo-Saxon" countries have relatively low social trust and I'm not sure that's true any more.

[The Brain]

The most damning statistic is comparisons against the other members of the overachieving Nordic quartet.  Norway, Denmark, and Finland have all been one of the few countries that have really dodged all bullets coming their way so far.  All four of these countries usually overachieve together, there is no obvious reason why Sweden was doomed to do so much worse this time.

Usually overachieve together during serious pandemics?

Overachieve together on all things that depend on countries functioning well.  If Norway ranks #1 on the number of orgasms experienced per capita per year, you can be sure that Finland, Denmark, and Sweden would probably be in the top 5 as well, definitely in the top 10.  Covid seems to be on of the few time where one is doing so much worse than the rest.

Your image of the Nordic countries seems to be non-detailed, they have been very differently successful in several areas (such as low-emission power production, military preparedness etc).

AFAIK experts still think that much about Covid-19 and its path through the world, like why some places and times see harder hits, isn't fully known. Drawing conclusions at this point using an approach that seems to rely on some kind of Montesquieuan climate theory and common sense appears to me to be optimistic.

[alfred russel]

The most damning statistic is comparisons against the other members of the overachieving Nordic quartet.  Norway, Denmark, and Finland have all been one of the few countries that have really dodged all bullets coming their way so far.  All four of these countries usually overachieve together, there is no obvious reason why Sweden was doomed to do so much worse this time.

I'm not sure why you would consider it "damning" without a lot more analysis.

A few days ago I pointed out that Georgia's deaths per million was about 1,818, and asked what it would have been if it didn't run its "experiment in human sacrifice" (to steal the Atlantic's description of the policies). It would seem at that point, with such an estimate, you could begin to calculate whether the incremental death from covid (if any) was worth the cost. No one took me up on this.

Sweden's deaths / million are 1,335 versus Denmark at 420, Norway at 129, and Finland at 157. Other European notables are the UK at 1,910, France at 1,459, Spain at 1,627, and Germany at 945. So we could limit this to the Nordics and say that Sweden sacrificed ~0.1% of its population by not pursuing more severe policies and then beginning to tally up the benefits on the other side of the ledger and see if it was worth it. Or, we could note that Stockholm is much more an international hub than Copenhagen, which itself is more of an international hub than Oslo and Helsinki, and the deaths may just be a reflection of this.

What I find infuriating and dishonest in the analysis on Languish is that this whole year when I compare southern US states to northern ones, I get as a reply "apples to oranges, the climate is much better suited to outdoor activities in the south" but when we go to European countries, with the most northerly having the lowest death toll, that analysis never gets mentioned.

[Berkut]

You poor thing. So infuriating, how selective the analysis is, when YOU are so completely objective and science and data driven!

[alfred russel]

You poor thing. So infuriating, how selective the analysis is, when YOU are so completely objective and science and data driven!

A shit ton more than you people are. Want to go back to the statements being made a year ago and tally up the obviously incorrect statements I made versus others?

But...the burden really should be on the side of people shutting down public spaces, prohibiting people gathering, etc. to show there is a demonstrable public benefit from doing so. More than a year after we began "15 days to stop the spread" that doesn't seem like an unreasonable ask.

[Barrister]

Canada set to surpass the US in per capita number of Covid infections.

https://edmontonjournal.com/news/canada/canada-could-soon-surpass-u-s-in-number-of-covid-cases-relative-to-population/wcm/4a244564-c8d0-471b-a966-66cef0a4d0a4?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1617898979