Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[alfred russel]

Gosh that is going to be tough to tease out. Does the presence of a legal prohibition of large gatherings impact the number of people willing to admit attending them? Are people attending large gatherings representative of the population at large: for example, could they be more likely to engage in other activity that is a more significant vector of transmission?

At the time restrictions were lifted, new cases in Texas were about 7,500 / day. If we assume an R0 (the transmission rate) of 2, with 6 days the average time from infection to passing it on, we'd expect about 240,000 / day right now if it was totally uncontrolled and without herd immunity effects. It seems we are at about 3,000 / day. Clearly non-state action and / or herd resistance is causing a dramatic reduction in transmission.

[DGuller]

Gosh that is going to be tough to tease out. Does the presence of a legal prohibition of large gatherings impact the number of people willing to admit attending them? Are people attending large gatherings representative of the population at large: for example, could they be more likely to engage in other activity that is a more significant vector of transmission?

At the time restrictions were lifted, new cases in Texas were about 7,500 / day. If we assume an R0 (the transmission rate) of 2, with 6 days the average time from infection to passing it on, we'd expect about 240,000 / day right now if it was totally uncontrolled and without herd immunity effects. It seems we are at about 3,000 / day. Clearly non-state action and / or herd resistance is causing a dramatic reduction in transmission.

Yeah, if you assume an R0 of 10, we'd be at about 750,000,000 / day.

[alfred russel]

True, but the estimate of uncontrolled R0 seems to be dramatically less than 10: it seems 2.0 - 3.5 is a frequent range.

[Jacob]

What is the background of America getting far more vaccination than countries with notionally better healthcare? Did the free market save us? Was Trump a secret genius?

Biden implemented a policy to not export vaccine manufactured in the US until the country is fully vaccinated, IIRC.

[Tamas]

My uncle (mother's brother) has been taken to hospital with covid. Due to his pre-existing conditions he went straight to ICU where he is on oxygen, but not intubated.

Eldest daughter of a good friend of my mum's (couple years older than me) has been there for a while now in a deteriorating condition, they are considering whether to intubate her.

[DGuller]

Ugh. 

[Sheilbh]

My uncle (mother's brother) has been taken to hospital with covid. Due to his pre-existing conditions he went straight to ICU where he is on oxygen, but not intubated.

Eldest daughter of a good friend of my mum's (couple years older than me) has been there for a while now in a deteriorating condition, they are considering whether to intubate her.

Really sorry to hear it Tamas - really horrible, I hope they are okay and thougts with your family

[Berkut]

What is the background of America getting far more vaccination than countries with notionally better healthcare? Did the free market save us? Was Trump a secret genius?

Biden implemented a policy to not export vaccine manufactured in the US until the country is fully vaccinated, IIRC.

[Jacob]

Wait what? I thought you and I ended up agreeing that it was a reasonable thing to do all things considered?

And that Biden has released a bunch of AZ vaccines (that the US probably won't use), making Canada and Mexico reasonably content with the whole arrangement.

[Josquius]

Word from a doctor friend of a friend in Switzerland is they're throwing away loads of vaccine every night.
I recall this problem in the news in the UK not so long ago. This being Switzerland the rules are the rules and using the extras seems to be a difficult task

[Zanza]

UK health regulator may restrict AstraZeneca shot for younger people

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2BS1QE?__twitter_impression=true

[Zanza]

Word from a doctor friend of a friend in Switzerland is they're throwing away loads of vaccine every night.
I recall this problem in the news in the UK not so long ago. This being Switzerland the rules are the rules and using the extras seems to be a difficult task

Same here as per anonymous anecdotes in the press.

[Berkut]

Wait what? I thought you and I ended up agreeing that it was a reasonable thing to do all things considered?

And that Biden has released a bunch of AZ vaccines (that the US probably won't use), making Canada and Mexico reasonably content with the whole arrangement.

I think the "answer" has some spin on it there that absent context suggests something that isn't really very accurate.

The better answer is "The US has a lot more vaccine then other countries because the US produces a lot more vaccine then other countries, hence they have first call on a scarce resource every country is scrambling to get as much of as possible"

Another way of putting it, even more charitably, is to note that the US is poised, within the next few months, to become by far the worlds largest exporter of vaccine, and definitely the largest exporter of the highest efficacy vaccines. And the reason that is going to be possible is that the US government basically said "Hey pharma industry - you now have nearly unlimited resources to invest, test, and produce vaccine. Have at it, and here are a couple hundred billion dollars to do it. Once you get that vaccine, we are going to be your #1 customer to the tune of about half a billion doses to vaccinate most of the US, and then the rest of the world".

Indeed, the Biden admin has stated exactly the opposite of that "answer". Now, that is politics of course, but it is an important distinction, I think.

https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/no-export-prohibitions-on-covid-19-vaccines-says-biden-administration-121031200103_1.html

The Biden administration on Thursday ruled out that it has imposed any kind of restrictions on export of COVID-19 vaccines, amidst reports that European Union has been told by the US that they cannot expect any AstraZeneca shipments anytime soon.

"We don't purchase AstraZeneca supplies. So there's no export prohibitions and all vaccine manufacturers in the United States are free to export their products while also fulfilling the terms of their contracts with the US government," White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki told reporters at her daily news conference.

[Jacob]

Okay, fair enough and with significant more nuance than the one line answer I gave. I wasn't aware of the recent statement by Biden re: the absence of export restrictions, which is good to hear.

[Berkut]

Okay, fair enough and with significant more nuance than the one line answer I gave. I wasn't aware of the recent statement by Biden re: the absence of export restrictions, which is good to hear.

It is kind of a semantic thing.

There is no export restriction that says "The US will not export vaccine until the US is vaccinated!".

However....those contracts that those companies are being held to? They amount to the US signing contracts that said "We get the first X hundred million doses you produce, in return for this giant pile of money to research and produce vaccines".

There isn't a ban....but the practical effect is that the US is not going to export much until the US is mostly vaccinated.