Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Sheilbh]

Obviously it's limited because of trials but I really don't understand why the media are focusing on the 66% protection against symptomatic cases rather than the 85% against severe illness or 100% against hospitalisation/death. The last two seem like far more important figures because, from my perspective, the issue with covid is mainly the death.

How does it work with the two protocols? Presumably regulators can authorise both because they have data on both and then it's for health systems to decide (the NHS will 100% go for the single shot because it'll be the most bang for your buck)?

[ulmont]

How does it work with the two protocols? Presumably regulators can authorise both because they have data on both and then it's for health systems to decide (the NHS will 100% go for the single shot because it'll be the most bang for your buck)?

Presumably, yes, although J&J hasn't concluded the two-shot protocol trial yet so the single shot will certainly be authorized first.

[Tamas]

Although Hungarian vaccinations are progressing quite slowly, true priorities are observed: Olympic athletes, and the national football team will be getting their shots now. 

[Syt]

https://www.bbc.com/news/55825480

Debunking the Covid deniers who enter hospitals

A man making false and misleading statements about Covid-19 tried to remove a sick coronavirus patient from East Surrey Hospital, and is wanted by police.

The man filmed himself arguing with doctors in the ward, demanding to be allowed to take the patient home. Doctors at the hospital are seen in the video warning against such an action - stating that the patient would die if he left their care.

It follows a trend of people filming supposedly "empty hospitals" and then posting them online and encouraging others to do the same, spread on social media platforms.

In a statement, Michael Wilson, chief executive of Surrey and Sussex Healthcare NHS Trust, said: "Any suggestion that Covid-19 doesn't exist or isn't serious is not only extremely disrespectful to the NHS staff caring for patients affected by the virus, but it also puts the lives of others at risk."

The video has been shared thousands of times on social media. The man behind the camera makes a number of discredited claims - albeit ones that are very popular in Covid-19 conspiracy communities online.

What's wrong with his statements?

Vitamins and zinc can't cure Covid-19

The doctor in the video describes the patient's condition and treatment, and notes that he's on a steroid called dexamethasone and antibiotics "to treat concurrent bacterial infections".

The man filming insists the patient should be given vitamin C, vitamin D, and zinc instead.

"None of those are proven treatments for coronavirus," the doctor replies.

Dexamethasone is an anti-inflammatory drug and trials have shown it can be effective in treating Covid-19.

While vitamin C, vitamin D and zinc are essential for the body and can support the immune system, they won't cure the disease.

The government does not think Covid-19 is harmless

The man behind the camera also claims that Covid-19 was "declassified on 19 March 2020 as no longer highly contagious infectious disease".

He is probably referring to a technical classification - high consequence infectious diseases (HCIDs). Covid initially had this classification in the UK but now does not.

This fact is used in online forums as "proof" that Covid-19 is not a real disease or that it is essentially harmless.

In reality, it means nothing of the sort. Covid is dangerous but HCIDs are very deadly. The designation refers to the fatality rate, and the category includes Ebola and Sars, which have case-fatality rates of about 50% and 15% respectively.

But just because Covid-19 does not have a fatality rate comparable to Ebola and Sars, it doesn't mean it's not a significant threat.

[Sheilbh]

I know there'll be a lot of overlap but I kind of have a bit of sympathy for anti-vaxxers. There's a new type of vaccine involved and it's all been developed at record pace - I get it. I still think it's wrong and not founded in reality, but I get it.

The covid deniers blow my mind and make no sense to me whatsoever

Incidentally finally saw a Belgian lawyers take on the EU-AZ contract and it was basically the same as mine: it's not the best contract in the world, but it doesn't say what the Commission have been suggesting. According to the Guardian the negotiator of vaccine contracts has been looking for evidence that vaccines intended for the EU were diverted to the UK, so far she hasn't found any at this point.

UK vaccination numbers are very good yesterday and today. I feel like last week either was some supply blip or possibly all the regions trying to focus on getting the last few over-80s or people in care home even at the expense of speed.

This is also really interesting - world mortality dataset (this is looking at excess mortality which is they key figure):
https://github.com/akarlinsky/world_mortality

Edit: Also a random thought from Adam Kucharski that I thought was really interesting. South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and other APAC states have used very data heavy ways of controlling the disease - especially using data from mobiles. How much have scandals like Cambridge Analytica and Snowden hurt other countries taking a similar approach? Just because there's a lower level of trust in tech. For example I know a number of people who wouldn't download the NHS app because they were convinced Dominic Cummings and/or the Tories would be using their data.

[Tamas]

But I bet they use a number of free apps and google don't they?

I mean, it's a valid concern but the ship has sailed a long time ago pandemic.

[Syt]

Several anti-Corona measures demos were announced for the weekend, but all were banned, pointing to the fact that in the past those demonstrations didn't observe distancing/mask rules, and the still high number of infections.

Police have promised (repeatedly) that they would be stepping in to dissolve/prevent such demonstrations going forward after criticism that they do comparatively little to stop these demonstrations.

So obviously there's currently 5,000+ people demonstrating illegally in Vienna against the government's Covid measures (including a fair number of known right wing extremists). Police is doing ... not much. They briefly held up a few hundred in Maria-Theresian-Platz, but let them go pretty soon. Compare to a few weeks ago, when they encircled a similar number of teenage counter protesters for over two hours in sub zero temperatures. Or a few days ago, when school students protested the deportation of asylum seekers who came to Austria as infants and spent 10 years growing up here due to the slow application procedure of their mother, and the police showed up with K9 squads and the Austrian equivalent of SWAT.

[mongers]

Several anti-Corona measures demos were announced for the weekend, but all were banned, pointing to the fact that in the past those demonstrations didn't observe distancing/mask rules, and the still high number of infections.

Police have promised (repeatedly) that they would be stepping in to dissolve/prevent such demonstrations going forward after criticism that they do comparatively little to stop these demonstrations.

So obviously there's currently 5,000+ people demonstrating illegally in Vienna against the government's Covid measures (including a fair number of known right wing extremists). Police is doing ... not much. They briefly held up a few hundred in Maria-Theresian-Platz, but let them go pretty soon. Compare to a few weeks ago, when they encircled a similar number of teenage counter protesters for over two hours in sub zero temperatures. Or a few days ago, when school students protested the deportation of asylum seekers who came to Austria as infants and spent 10 years growing up here due to the slow application procedure of their mother, and the police showed up with K9 squads and the Austrian equivalent of SWAT.

Wacky idea, maybe there are a lot of right-wingers in the police hierarchy?

[Tamas]

For sure, but also I think part of it is just laziness/cowardice.

I mean, what resistance can you expect from a bunch of humanities students? Anti-covid hysterical right-wingers are much more likely to give you trouble and make you work for your salary.

You go out and bully a bunch of kids that's easy and you can show that you are working.

[Sheilbh]

But I bet they use a number of free apps and google don't they?

No they developed their own and they were far more intrusive. I had some Singaporean colleagues talk through theirs and it was a lot more than what I'd seen in Europe (unsurprisingly it has since turned out that the police were also watching that data).

But it sort of gets to the platforming RobinHood point. I'm very uncertain why an American tech platform should in effect decide how states do contact tracing as opposed to, say, elected governments.

I mean, it's a valid concern but the ship has sailed a long time ago pandemic.

Yeah but it is one of the interesting differences between us and APAC is they really leveraged tech, almost regardless of privacy concerns, in the fight against covid.

[mongers]

Just watching last night's Al Jazeera's news, in item about Mexico's struggle with the pandemic, they mention Mexico still allowing tourists and interviewed an American (or possibly a Canadian) sitting on a bench:
"The coronavirus, some of us in the family have already had it, it's not that big a deal. And the governments are making worse than it actually is"

[Sheilbh]

The Mexican government is also handling it very badly. AMLO's been such a disappointment in everything

But in particular in relation to covid they've really been a left-populist version of Bolsonaro.

[mongers]

Situation in Portugal looking bad, only 7 ICU beds vacant, critically ill patients having to be airlifted to Madeira and other islands. 

[Duque de Bragança]

Some Portuguese patients will be transferred to Austria, following a telephone conversation between prime ministers Costa and Kurz, according to Diario de Notícias.

https://www.dn.pt/internacional/austria-vai-receber-doentes-portugueses-nos-cuidados-intensivos-13298779.html

Easing restrictions for Christmas, after the appearance of the British variant, proved to be a deadly mistake. Prime Minister Costa claims the British strain was detected afterwards in a desperate attempt to avoid responsibility.

https://www.dn.pt/politica/antonio-costa-se-tivessemos-conhecimento-da-variante-inglesa-teriamos-endurecido-regras-no-natal-13285795.html

In more local familial news, godfather of my sister got infected following a lengthy visit to the hospital for another condition, or so he claims, since he is well known for receiving lots of people for drinking in his wine cellar. Wife subsequently got it as well.

[Sheilbh]

Hope they get well.

It looks like the Commission's reached the same conclusion on their contract:

Ursula von der Leyen
@vonderleyen
Step forward on vaccines.

@AstraZeneca will deliver 9 million additional doses in the first quarter (40 million in total) compared to last week's offer & will start deliveries one week earlier than scheduled.

The company will also expand its manufacturing capacity in Europe.

On Friday AZ had said they could divert 8 million additional doses (and expand manufacturing) - this was rejected as "nowhere near" acceptable followed by the export control mess. But this seems like a sensible solution - AZ will do what they can in terms of deliveries and ramp up production at other sites as quickly as possible and (if the issues in Belgium are anything like the ones in the UK in December) production in Belgium should start to grow quickly once the issue is solved. Hopefully the J&J will also be ready for approval soon, plus Moderna delivering and Pfizer fixed in Belgium.