Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Sheilbh]

Ah I'd misunderstood I thought it was 6 pharmacy brands (including Boots and Superdrug) but 200 pharmacies, but that makes more sense. Again I think there's a logic to launching in a smaller sample and then increasing capacity -  but I hope it's done quickly.

[HVC]

Getting phone alerts reminding people to stay home

[mongers]

Getting phone alerts reminding people to stay home

Then why don't you bloody well stay at home, instead of posting here?

[Sheilbh]

New vaccination stats - it is still climbing which is good, but also a monthly stats breakdown (to last Thursday) by age and by region. The best news is that, depending on the region, 30-45% of the over 80s have had at least one dose so by next Thursday they should have a degree of immunity and that should start to have an impact in hospitalisation and mortality. If it keeps growing at the current rate we should have 100% of the over 80s vaccinated by the end of the month and, basically, safe by mid-February which would be great news.

On the daily stats it is growing at a good rate - up to 250k yesterday (which is almost enough to hit the 2 million a week target). Obviously touch wood and there are lots of other issues but so far so good on vaccinations

I'd also like more details on how the roll-out has gone in care homes and when that's finished.

[celedhring]

I know you guys got a headstart compared to the continent, but it's still impressive.

[Sheilbh]

I think a lot of that is just the headstart because I think it's bound to be slower at the start of a program like this just as systems get put in place (it's why I think there is maybe sense in expanding venues steadily: hospitals, GPs, vaccine centres, pharmacies - rather than trying to do everything at once and the system falling over). Europe's basically where we were at the start of January and I'd expect those figures to start climbing quickly now there's been two weeks of the systems running they should now be able to handle more capacity and will speed up even more once the AZ vaccine is approved.

Having said that - if I were French or Dutch I would be having an aneurysm about now because they seem very, very low and I'm not sure why.

In other good vaccine news - apparently the Johnson & Johnson single dose vaccine is safe and effective. There's not full data ready for approval so it's still probably a month or two away but we should have up to four vaccines by the spring (which is mind blowing).

[Duque de Bragança]

Having said that - if I were French or Dutch I would be having an aneurysm about now because they seem very, very low and I'm not sure why.

I can help you for the French fiasco:

Macron's clique typical incompetence. They had months to prepare it and just finished working out the details now (hopefully).
He even acted angry at his own government failure in this matter. 

https://www.femmeactuelle.fr/actu/news-actu/colere-feinte-lachete-emmanuel-macron-raille-apres-son-coup-de-gueule-sur-la-vaccination-2106410

[celedhring]

Just checked and the US is at 3.3 per 100 people, having started on Dec. 14

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/

Checking the table on the article it seems they have issues employing all the doses they have - only 36.7% have been used.

[crazy canuck]

Wow, just 83%?  That's a far cry from having "no confirmed cases of reinfection".

Given the number of documented cases of reinfection, if that study had found no reinfections, we would all be questioning their methodology.

[celedhring]

The BBC has a little bit more info on the study :

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55651518

"Of those who had no antibodies to the virus, suggesting they had never had it, 318 developed potential new infections within this timeframe, the tests indicated.
But among the 6,614 with antibodies, this figure was just 44."

That's 99.4% of people with antibodies not getting reinfected. I'm not sure how they measure that protection % though (i.e., not all 6,614 may have been exposed to the virus again).

[Sheilbh]

Annoyingly we don't know how many doses we have

MPs asked someone from Pfizer this during evidence yesterday and apparently it's confidential under the contract for "national security reasons" which is insane. Based on the Scottish government's plans (where they're more transparent) they are getting 670k new doses in the next fortnight which, on a UK-wide basis, would be 8 million then there's a bit of a lull - but still enough to meet targets - followed by a big batch of 11 million arrive in the first two weeks of March.

Based on muck-racking by the Daily Mail we have about 21 million doses in the country now, but it's difficult to know. So we don't know how well we're doing v what we actually have/supply.

[Richard Hakluyt]

The BBC has a little bit more info on the study :

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55651518

"Of those who had no antibodies to the virus, suggesting they had never had it, 318 developed potential new infections within this timeframe, the tests indicated.
But among the 6,614 with antibodies, this figure was just 44."

That's 99.4% of people with antibodies not getting reinfected. I'm not sure how they measure that protection % though (i.e., not all 6,614 may have been exposed to the virus again).

From the article "Of those who had no antibodies to the virus, suggesting they may have never had it, 318 developed potential new infections within this timeframe" which is out of c14000 is about 2.3% so that rate, in a group with very similar background but not having had the virus, is several times higher than the one who have had it.

[celedhring]

The BBC has a little bit more info on the study :

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55651518

"Of those who had no antibodies to the virus, suggesting they had never had it, 318 developed potential new infections within this timeframe, the tests indicated.
But among the 6,614 with antibodies, this figure was just 44."

That's 99.4% of people with antibodies not getting reinfected. I'm not sure how they measure that protection % though (i.e., not all 6,614 may have been exposed to the virus again).

From the article "Of those who had no antibodies to the virus, suggesting they may have never had it, 318 developed potential new infections within this timeframe" which is out of c14000 is about 2.3% so that rate, in a group with very similar background but not having had the virus, is several times higher than the one who have had it.

Ok, I guess they derive the extra protection awared by antibodies by comparing relative infection numbers between both groups (haven't ran the math, though).

[celedhring]

Annoyingly we don't know how many doses we have

MPs asked someone from Pfizer this during evidence yesterday and apparently it's confidential under the contract for "national security reasons" which is insane. Based on the Scottish government's plans (where they're more transparent) they are getting 670k new doses in the next fortnight which, on a UK-wide basis, would be 8 million then there's a bit of a lull - but still enough to meet targets - followed by a big batch of 11 million arrive in the first two weeks of March.

Based on muck-racking by the Daily Mail we have about 21 million doses in the country now, but it's difficult to know. So we don't know how well we're doing v what we actually have/supply.

We have 1.1 million doses, have used 580k. So that puts us slightly over 50%. Although it will probably be around 70% before the next weekly batch of vaccines arrives on Monday. I'm just worried there's going to be a bit of a ceiling on how much we can scale, given that our health care system doesn't have that many nurses compared to other countries. There's talk to enable pharmacists later in the process.

[crazy canuck]

We are probably going to go the pharmacist route here once there are enough doses available.  They are already able to give other vaccinations, like the flu shot.