Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Admiral Yi]

One real result of Donald's last minute interference is that the unemployment top up will last one week less than originally planned.  The bill had a hard end date.

[Sheilbh]

Situation in UK hospitals, especially in London (many London hospitals serve Kent as well) is as bad as it was at the peak of the first wave. There seems to be a lot less public attention/news on it, which is a problem.

It still feels to me like the government needs to lock everyone down. It's mad that on the one hand we've got the vaccine roll-out and sky-rocketing cases with this new variant and the government hell-bent on re-opening schools broadly as planned. If they are planning to do this single dose vaccination of school kids with the AstraZeneca vaccine (once approved) then I can sort of see a way that it makes sense (and will be staggered). If that's not the plan then it feels very uncoordinated and reckless (but surely not - not with Gavin Williamson in charge ).

On the upside uptake on the vaccine is very high when it's being offered (obviously it's currently being offered to front-line healthcare/care home workers and the over 80s). Hopefully that continues, as I say I've always thought the anti-vax fears didn't really apply here it's a row from the US culture wars that we've imported and most people trust their doctors, trust the NHS and if they're offered something by them, will take it.

Edit: And that makes me wonder slightly about the ethics of reporting on this. The headline in the Guardian is "Covid vaccine uptake high despite concerns over hesitancy". Was it right to report about fears of hesitancy or the risk of hesitancy or people hesitant to take the vaccine before there's any evidence it actually exists (especially as the UK has consistently polled as one of the nations most keen to take a vaccine)? Because it almost feels like that isn't news unless it actually happens and you're just amplifying the sort of fearmongers and possibly making it more likely?

Edit: Incidentally does anyone know if we kept the Nightingale Hospitals set up? My understanding is we did, but I'm not sure so presumably we might have to use them this time?

Edit: Also as new data is coming in on the new strain it seems like the increase in transmission is about 56%. It is also increasing at the same rate in tests across the country so it's estimated that more than 90% of all infections in the UK will be the new strain by the end of January. It's one hell of a competitive advantage. Given all of that it seems like it'll be likely that it will eventually become the dominant strain in all the other countries that have identified cases.

Very strict lockdown measures could work, just about (which I don't think they could with the previous estimate of a 70% increase in transmission). The alternative apparently is that we need to be vaccinating about 0.4% of the population per day - so basically 260,000 doses a day in the UK. We're nowhere near that level yet and I suspect we won't get there until/unless the AstraZeneca vaccine is approved because it's so much easier to store and distribute etc.

[garbon]

I thought there were polls showing the BAME population is less willing to take a covid vaccine.

[Sheilbh]

I thought there were polls showing the BAME population is less willing to take a covid vaccine.

There were but it was also far less definitive - the BAME population were less willing to take the vaccine but wanted more information from their GP and were far more open to taking it if they heard from their GP. In the same poll white people were more willing to take the vaccine but also had basically made up their minds and were half as likely to be swayed by their GP. That increases my sense that people trust their doctor and trust the NHS so when the comms around vaccine is at that level inviting people to come in, take-up will be high across groups because the way it's delivered and they way they will get information about the vaccine is trusted.

I think the biggest divide is (as with almost everything in Britain) age. Old people who are most vulnerable are far more keen on the vaccine across ethnicities, young people are more reluctant. In a way given the way the vaccine will be rolled out I think this probably makes it easier than if it the disease made kids or young people particularly vulnerable. By the time I get asked to have the vaccine almost all of my family will already have had it, and that'll be the same for most young(-ish ) people I imagine.

Edit: Incidentally on the vaccine - huge progress in Israel which looks like it will be the first country to be fully vaccinated.

[Sheilbh]

London ICUs approaching capacity - patients may be moved to other regions such as Yorshire with more capacity and lower case growth. It still doesn't feel that the urgency of the situation is clear to people - as relatively useless as they actually were I almost feel the afternoon press conferences should come back almost as a signal that things, again, aren't normal (and political correspondents should be banned in favour of health and science reporters because I swear to God they'd start asking questions about Brexit which is not the point ).

It definitely feels like we'll be in national lockdown within days.

[jimmy olsen]

BREAKING: U.S. Congressman-elect Luke Letlow (R-LA) has died of COVID-19. He was 41 years old
https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1344110812969971712?s=21

[Sheilbh]

The UK regulator, the MHRA have approved the AstraZeneca vaccine.

Edit: And the JCVI who are the scientific advisors on vaccinations have changed their recommendations (presumably because of this new strain). It's basically a bit like Blair's suggestion. They are now advised that priority should be to give as many at-risk groups a first dose (rather than providing two doses in as short a time as possible). Everyone will still get two doses but the second dose can be within 12 weeks of the first. Given the new transmission risks that seems sensible and hopefully will be implemented.

[Zanza]

Germany had its worst day so far with more than 1000 deaths reported in a single day for the first time. At the same time, R value is significantly below 1. Both could be statistical aberration from poor reporting and less testing over Christmas. 

[DGuller]

Apparently excess mortality analysis by Russia's own statistical agency indicates that three times as many people died of Covid as officially reported.  I guess that wasn't too shocking, their death numbers seemed to make no sense before.  That said, I wonder what story excess death analysis tells us in other countries.

[Richard Hakluyt]

The Astrazeneca approval is great news. With the vaccine stable at normal fridge temperatures we should be able to roll this out quickly; assuming the government doesn't fuck it up...

[Sheilbh]

Apparently excess mortality analysis by Russia's own statistical agency indicates that three times as many people died of Covid as officially reported.  I guess that wasn't too shocking, their death numbers seemed to make no sense before.  That said, I wonder what story excess death analysis tells us in other countries.

The FT's monitoring of excess deaths:

[Richard Hakluyt]

Apparently excess mortality analysis by Russia's own statistical agency indicates that three times as many people died of Covid as officially reported.  I guess that wasn't too shocking, their death numbers seemed to make no sense before.  That said, I wonder what story excess death analysis tells us in other countries.

Good news that the Russian statistical agency was able to come clean about this; I half expected Putin to keep the reality suppressed.

[DGuller]

So sad to see a nation that gave us IKEA and The Brain make such a bad mistake with their Covid policy.  In Denmark and Norway Covid is resurrecting people, while in Sweden it kills at a US rate.

[Sheilbh]

The Astrazeneca approval is great news. With the vaccine stable at normal fridge temperatures we should be able to roll this out quickly; assuming the government doesn't fuck it up...

Yes - quite the risk

I've already been seeing letters in the press of retired surgeons and doctors who are trying to volunteer to help administer the vaccine being turned down because they don't have appropriate training. I feel like people with those skills could be fairly quickly trained up (it's not like it needs to go into your veins) and useful.

[Josquius]

Interesting the UKs excess deaths is remaining so low with the new record high infection rate.

My partner had pop up on her Facebook an ad from the nhs looking to recruit totally untrained people to put through a crash course to be vaccinators.
Smells fishy they're doing this rather than letting retired people doctors in. Somebody is profiting.