Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[celedhring]

The Catalan Supreme Court has struck down some of the restrictions that the regional government had enacted to control the spread of the virus (namely, movie theaters and gyms are allowed to reopen, following social distancing etc...) since they were not considered proportionate. Since the new restrictions are not being implemented using a state of emergency, they are subject to judiciary review. Several other sectors have taken the government to court, so we'll see what happens. It kinda feels odd to have the judiciary make public health vs economy decisions but I guess that's how it goes.

[alfred russel]

Man you are talented at goal post moving. It's impressive.

Back in March, when I was begging someone to take a bet with me that the fatality rate for this thing would not exceed 1%, you were kind of insulting to me:

"I mean I am no medical expert so I am not really able to counter the expert claims of AF and his...wait...what is his career again? He is some sort of medical specialist right?" (see post 4310) and yet here we are with that generally being accepted.

The reason I wanted to make such a bet is that if you actually read studies from the cruise ships with outbreaks and the major imperial college synthesis in the UK, that were available back then, they were converging at an estimated fatality rate of about 0.6%. This is what was estimated at the start, but you would never know that if you just paid attention to news programming. We actually had a doctor posting statistics that I think all of us would recognize today as completely outrageous, so unless you think fate was lying to try to panic us, it wasn't just lay news consumers that were misled.

I'm not moving the goalposts at all. They have been the same since March. I posted what I thought the fatality rate would be based on data published by scientists, compared that to what people were discussing in places like languish, and believed the difference was due to sensationalism in reporting. It increasingly looks like the data published by scientists was correct. 

[alfred russel]

I see you're back on your "media is creating a panic" old line.

It must feel good to be vindicated all the time like that. Good for you buddy. 

You don't think that there is sensationalism in the way covid-19 has been reported?

Certainly, all the news reports that said it was no worse than the flu.

I think saying covid is no worse than the flu is denialism rather than sensationalism, but that point aside probably most of the text I've read indicating that covid is no worse than the flu was written by you. You then changed course and started talking about millions of kids dying in the US.

The world has idiots that have been denialists regarding covid19, and also some idiots that have had fanciful predictions of doom, but you are in a truly special category with membership in both camps.

[DGuller]

I skimmed through the entire thread not too long ago.  I was mainly interested in re-reading my own posts, to see whether in hindsight I had a bad take on something that was proven false by further development.  The only bad take I saw was me predicting that enforced WFH would once and for all discredit the concept of WFH.  The jury may still be out on the long-term sustainability of it, but so far that looks like a pretty bad prediction.

In the course of reading over my posts, I couldn't help but notice other people's posts, especially if my posts were replying to them.  I have to say that there are a number of posters here who still have an air of superiority about them that would probably look a little unwarranted in light of their historic takes on the pandemic as it unfolded.  I'm reminded of Paul Krugman rants about "very serious people" pushing for austerity during the last economic crisis, there seems to be the same dynamic in play with Covid.

[crazy canuck]

I think my statements that the US was not doing well in March, April, May and June are holding up pretty well. 

Feel free to criticize my tone.  But with people saying things are not so bad, it seems reminders that things in the US are bad are required from time to time.

[alfred russel]

I think my statements that the US was not doing well in March, April, May and June are holding up pretty well. 

Feel free to criticize my tone.  But with people saying things are not so bad, it seems reminders that things in the US are bad are required from time to time.

Whether you were posting shit about this being less bad than the flu, or that we were looking at the deaths of millions of kids, you have been very consistent in your opinion that the US sucks. It has been the one consistent theme.

[Sheilbh]

Really interesting video on new FT dataviz on local outbreaks:
https://www.ft.com/video/e38ebc44-c99a-48e6-bdeb-8753543261f9

And not quite the same, but some interesting details on the new infections in Europe:
https://www.ft.com/content/bcddc297-b7f2-444d-908f-54e8ce6f4f98

[crazy canuck]

I think my statements that the US was not doing well in March, April, May and June are holding up pretty well. 

Feel free to criticize my tone.  But with people saying things are not so bad, it seems reminders that things in the US are bad are required from time to time.

Whether you were posting shit about this being less bad than the flu, or that we were looking at the deaths of millions of kids, you have been very consistent in your opinion that the US sucks. It has been the one consistent theme.

Yes, the US response has been tragic. Why the fuck do you keep denying it.

[alfred russel]

I think my statements that the US was not doing well in March, April, May and June are holding up pretty well. 

Feel free to criticize my tone.  But with people saying things are not so bad, it seems reminders that things in the US are bad are required from time to time.

Whether you were posting shit about this being less bad than the flu, or that we were looking at the deaths of millions of kids, you have been very consistent in your opinion that the US sucks. It has been the one consistent theme.

Yes, the US response has been tragic. Why the fuck do you keep denying it.

Have I been denying it?

In the early days, I thought I was generally complaining that the response had overly draconian elements that would not produce a benefit and would backfire in the longer term. Since then I have become increasingly convinced that my early take was correct, deeply bitter overall, and if I'm honest hateful of humanity.

[Sheilbh]

In the early days, I thought I was generally complaining that the response had overly draconian elements that would not produce a benefit and would backfire in the longer term. Since then I have become increasingly convinced that my early take was correct, deeply bitter overall, and if I'm honest hateful of humanity.

But I think that does need to be qualified as not producing a benefit and backfire and people pushing back because it's "overly draconian" have largely been phenomena unique to the US, rather than inevitably responses of humanity.

[alfred russel]

But I think that does need to be qualified as not producing a benefit and backfire and people pushing back because it's "overly draconian" have largely been phenomena unique to the US, rather than inevitably responses of humanity.

I disagree. The discarding of rules may have a unique political component in the US, but it is happening in Europe too.

[The Minsky Moment]

If the top national leadership and about 1/4 to 1/3 of the state leadership talk against and/or actively undermining control measures as they are ongoing - "draconinan" or not - is it really any surprise that the response is less effective that can be hoped and generates political backlash?  The US national authorities wasted the time before the virus hit the shore, wasted the time after the first cases appeared but before it went national, wasted the respite provided by the  lockdown. The President and his staff have spent much of the crisis undermining and criticizing their own government's response and both neutering and backbiting against their own virus taskforce.  The President on a near daily basis uses conventional and social to rile up his supporters against his own administration's public health policies and guidelines.  The best policy in the world would fail in the face of this kind of sabotage.

[Valmy]

If the top national leadership and about 1/4 to 1/3 of the state leadership talk against and/or actively undermining control measures as they are ongoing - "draconinan" or not - is it really any surprise that the response is less effective that can be hoped and generates political backlash?  The US national authorities wasted the time before the virus hit the shore, wasted the time after the first cases appeared but before it went national, wasted the respite provided by the  lockdown. The President and his staff have spent much of the crisis undermining and criticizing their own government's response and both neutering and backbiting against their own virus taskforce.  The President on a near daily basis uses the media riles up his supporters against his own administration's public health policies and guidelines.  The best policy in the world would fail in the face of this kind of sabotage.

Don't forget also attacking state and local governments and encouraging rebellions against their authority.

[DGuller]

If the top national leadership and about 1/4 to 1/3 of the state leadership talk against and/or actively undermining control measures as they are ongoing - "draconinan" or not - is it really any surprise that the response is less effective that can be hoped and generates political backlash?  The US national authorities wasted the time before the virus hit the shore, wasted the time after the first cases appeared but before it went national, wasted the respite provided by the  lockdown. The President and his staff have spent much of the crisis undermining and criticizing their own government's response and both neutering and backbiting against their own virus taskforce.  The President on a near daily basis uses conventional and social to rile up his supporters against his own administration's public health policies and guidelines.  The best policy in the world would fail in the face of this kind of sabotage.

It's hard to imagine a GRU plant being more effective at such sabotage than Trump.  Those who voted for Trump have blood on their hands.

[The Brain]

GRU plants have feelings too you know.