Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Sheilbh]

Which is why I said people aren't really shooting for herd immunity - it's just too costly in terms of infections and deaths.

I mean the Swedish projection is they'll have another 3,000 deaths with a worst case scenario of about another 5,000 which would put it at between 800-1,000 death per million. It's still not clear if that'll be enough for Sweden to then have a level of herd immunity.

But if US states are broadly going down that line then there will be a lot more deaths (Sweden's predicting an increase of 60-100% from where they are now).

The evidence is still coming in, but looks pretty good in terms of long-term immunity to Covid once you have it, by the way.  The reports of decreasing anti-body results over time were rather misleading.

https://www.vox.com/2020/7/22/21324729/getting-covid-19-twice-immunity-antibodies-vaccine-herd-immunity

Yeah I think it all looks fairly positive. I think the Swedish virologist said it looks like immunity lasts for about 6-8 months, regardless of antibody levels. Presumably there's some sort of learned immunity when winter comes around but it still feels like a big risk if you've not got it contained by then.

[Sheilbh]

Quite frankly, a lot of the "back to school" moment seems predicated, much like a lot of the pushback to distancing measures, by the inconvenience of having kids at home. That seems to be the constant concern, as jurisdictions I have heard from keep twisting and turning and flipflopping about the how, why, when, etc. There's been half a dozen different scenarios proposed in Quebec at least, and nothing guarantees - despite constant reassurances to the contrary  - that they will hold in the next few months.

I think there is a huge social mobility issue with schools being closed as well. We are seeing lots of tutors being used by the well-off and, needless to say, the private schools who educate 7% of kids feel a need to justify their fees even during lockdown so they're doing a huge amount.

I think there will be an impact on this year, but if it goes on for more years the impact will obviously increase.

The joke circulating right now amidst high school teacher and college professor friends, is that we will teach in-person, except for students who require otherwise, in groups that will be physically distanced, except when classes cannot be modified, in which case, they will have visors, or mask, or both, or none - and that, in any case, we should modify our pedagogy for distance learning, in case we need to go back to the distance learning scenario, but keep it flexible, so that we can indeed begin teaching in person, except for students who require otherwise...

Fair.

[Oexmelin]

I think there is a huge social mobility issue with schools being closed as well.

Oh, there are good reasons to open the schools, for sure. Socialization, inequality, learning. Except that the sort of justifications always feel "off" to me - mostly because none of this stuff seemed to matter at all before covid. It's clear that concern over pedagogy and the actual purpose of education is very, very distant from everything that has been proposed - and the best indicator, IMO, is that teachers are for the most part utterly absent from the decision-making process. They are being told to teach, and they're going to teach dammit. Teach what? How? At what level? Who cares. The important thing is to put kids in classrooms.

In US colleges, it's hard not to see just how much tuition dollars factor into the decision to give the full "college experience". In high school and elementary schools, people talk about the need for socialization for kids, or to get "back on track" on their way to graduation (what for? not an important question).

[Barrister]

In US colleges, it's hard not to see just how much tuition dollars factor into the decision to give the full "college experience". In high school and elementary schools, people talk about the need for socialization for kids, or to get "back on track" on their way to graduation (what for? not an important question).

Family friend is a vice-provost at U of Alberta.  The tuition implications of going all-online are going to be massive - in particular after government cuts pre-Covid.

[Oexmelin]

Family friend is a vice-provost at U of Alberta.  The tuition implications of going all-online are going to be massive - in particular after government cuts pre-Covid.

Of course. It's all going to be massive throughout society: no reason that higher education will escape it. The issue is how university are either envisioning the moment, or the future - as for the past, let's just say that university administrations, often in places full of people who had been warning about the massive repercussions of pandemics, have been as utterly deaf as most political and business leaders.

[PDH]

Of course. It's all going to be massive throughout society: no reason that higher education will escape it. The issue is how university are either envisioning the moment, or the future - as for the past, let's just say that university administrations, often in places full of people who had been warning about the massive repercussions of pandemics, have been as utterly deaf as most political and business leaders.

Welcome to UC

[Barrister]

I have to say though that I have significantly less sympathy for universities than some other sectors of the economy.  The way tuition has been increasing that far, far outstrips the rate of inflation, yet they constantly cry poverty, is a little irksome.

[Oexmelin]

I have to say though that I have significantly less sympathy for universities than some other sectors of the economy.  The way tuition has been increasing that far, far outstrips the rate of inflation, yet they constantly cry poverty, is a little irksome.

That's certainly true in the US where the whining is frankly indecent when it comes from institutions with multi billion dollars endowment. Especially in the high-tier institutions under ivy leagues and equivalent (Harvard, Yale and the like know their brand will be enough to bring students in). It's less the case for  Less for community colleges and commuter colleges. As for state institutions, in the US anyways, the increased reliance on tuition dollars came after years of slashing budgets by increasingly hostile state legislatures, themselves sold to private institutions, and therefore, utterly convinced that good tuition is high tuition.

I don't know enough the situation in Alberta, but since it takes so much of its political cues from American conservatives, i wouldn't be surprised if it's somewhat similar.

[merithyn]

What are other jurisdictions doing for school in the fall?

Portland School District isn't making a decision until mid-August. They're considering three options:

• Openly fully with masks and social distancing requirements
• Hybrid opening with partial in-class and partial home learning
• Complete work from home situation

[grumbler]

It's generating a lot of talk to be sure.  In contrast, I know University of Alberta is going all-online for next year.

What are other jurisdictions doing for school in the fall?

The University of Michigan (I still have a lot of friends that teach there) will be having a smorgasbord of class offering, with the large classes all taught remotely, the small classes in-person, and the medium-sized classes online for most classes but in-person in small groups.  Students will choose courses based on their desire to attend in-person, but all students can stay on-line for almost all courses (not many graduate courses, unfortunately) if they so desire.

The university is encouraging attendance on-campus even if the courses are on-line, so students still have a chance to enjoy college life.  No one is required to be in Ann Arbor, though.  Graduate students uncomfortable with coming back on campus will probably have some delays in completion of their programs.

All classes after November 20th, and all final exams, will be given purely remotely.  The Spring 2021 semester will also be shortened and also feature a mix of on-line and in-person offerings.  No spring Break.

[alfred russel]

Georgia colleges are reopening--initially the plan wasn't to require masks but that got reversed when people started complaining.

https://www.redandblack.com/uganews/uga-to-require-masks-on-campus-in-usg-decision-reversal/article_33ae86fc-bfe4-11ea-b923-1b1499dd96fc.html

[11B4V]

What are other jurisdictions doing for school in the fall?

Portland School District isn't making a decision until mid-August. They're considering three options:

• Openly fully with masks and social distancing requirements
• Hybrid opening with partial in-class and partial home learning
• Complete work from home situation

A lot of West WA schools are going full time online. IOW they don't believe or trust the Orange man and his Administration.

[merithyn]

Iowa State University is starting early and ending before Thanksgiving. There will be classes on Labor Day. They won't go back until January 11.

They are planning on 50% capacity of normal use in classrooms and laboratories. Face coverings are required at all times outside and in while on campus except when eating or drinking. "Many" classes will be offered in multiple delivery options - in-person, online, or a hybrid approach. The University is "strongly encouraging" students to attend class in person whenever possible.

Iowa. 

[jimmy olsen]

202 dead in Texas today by Worldmeter.

[Valmy]

202 dead in Texas today by Worldmeter.

It's a fucking disaster. Everything is just so depressing right now.