Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Valmy]

I understand. Disaster for the irresponsible states is always just a little further off.

Oh...is what we are having right now not a disaster? I mean from my perspective all my worst fears from when we started to re-open have come true.

[Sheilbh]

For what it's worth I have no idea why Cuomo is enjoying any popularity from this - it's clearly about style. A bit like people the same people who think Johnson has done dreadfully but really rate Sturgeon.

[merithyn]

For what it's worth I have no idea why Cuomo is enjoying any popularity from this - it's clearly about style. A bit like people the same people who think Johnson has done dreadfully but really rate Sturgeon.

I'm constantly flummoxed by his decisions, and therefore his popularity. Early on, he was a leader, at least. Now, I'm just confused.

[Tamas]

I mean, compare his press conferences on the pandemic (I've only seen one to be fair) and Trump's. Cuomo's should be the bare minimum you expect, but compared to the President he was impressive.

[alfred russel]

I understand. Disaster for the irresponsible states is always just a little further off.

Oh...is what we are having right now not a disaster? I mean from my perspective all my worst fears from when we started to re-open have come true.

2 thoughts on that:

1) I thought this was about flattening the curve to keep hospitals from getting overwhelmed. Hospitals haven't been overwhelmed. This doesn't seem like a worst fear scenario.

2) I realize this isn't a democrat/republican thing, but if you look at the worst states on a per capita level, 8 of the 10 have democrats in charge (massachusetts and maryland are the exceptions). It is really tough to look at the state level data and pull out that trumpist governors have enacted irresponsible strategies versus the rest of the country.

[Sheilbh]

What I find interesting is that death rates continue to decline across the Western world despite rising case numbers. Will be interesting to eventually learn the cause for that - virus mutation, existing large-scale immunity, better clinical treatment?

I think it's too soon for mutation and very few areas will have enough infections for immunity to make a difference - maybe the worst hit bits of Italy, the UK, Spain, New York?

But I think better knowledge of the disease and how to treat it are key. We're seeing far fewer stories about weird symptoms now and I can think of at least two treatment breakthroughs in UK studies that have been heavily reported over here. One for the use of remsdesivir which reduces the fatality rate of the most severe cases and the Synairgen study:
https://www.synairgen.com/covid-19/

This combined with the news on the various vaccine development programs is something that I think gives a lot of hope. The scientific effort around this, in such a short space of time seems remarkable for someone with no scientific background.

[viper37]

And as I say I just don't see the value of comparing yourself to the worst outbreak in the developed world as your measure of success.

there's a saying in Quebec: quand on se regarde on se désole, quand on se compare on se console(when we look at ourselves we're saddenned,  when we compare ourselves we're comforted).
Although it was meant to say that even though we ain't the greatest, we're doing not so bad (and we can do better), it kinda evolved to mean that we're just fine since Haiti is in a worst shape than Quebec, therefore we have nothing to complain about.

So that's the relative value.  As long as someone else somewhere is doing worst, you're just fine.  Kinda the same reasoning as the poor whites and the Civil War issue.  As long as there were slaves, they could look down on the blacks and take comfort that they were better than some other group.  With everyone equal, there's nothing to look at below you and you become frustrated of being stuck were you are. 

As long as big cities like NYC are in a worst shape, it means Florida and Georgia are doing ok, otherwise, they would be worst than NYC.  Repeat it often enough, and it will become truth.
[/i]

[viper37]

What I find interesting is that death rates continue to decline across the Western world despite rising case numbers. Will be interesting to eventually learn the cause for that - virus mutation, existing large-scale immunity, better clinical treatment?

I think it's too soon for mutation and very few areas will have enough infections for immunity to make a difference - maybe the worst hit bits of Italy, the UK, Spain, New York?

But I think better knowledge of the disease and how to treat it are key. We're seeing far fewer stories about weird symptoms now and I can think of at least two treatment breakthroughs in UK studies that have been heavily reported over here. One for the use of remsdesivir which reduces the fatality rate of the most severe cases and the Synairgen study:
https://www.synairgen.com/covid-19/

This combined with the news on the various vaccine development programs is something that I think gives a lot of hope. The scientific effort around this, in such a short space of time seems remarkable for someone with no scientific background.

There's another remedy too, some kind of corticosteroid, it alleviates the inflammation when your immune system is kinda "overloaded" (for lack of a better word).  this helps tremendously to reduce fatalities.  It won't help when the virus attacks the kidney, or other organs, but it helps to avoid that drowning-like symptom that caused so many fatalities at first.


EDIT:
Dexamethasone

[viper37]

For what it's worth I have no idea why Cuomo is enjoying any popularity from this - it's clearly about style. A bit like people the same people who think Johnson has done dreadfully but really rate Sturgeon.

I'm constantly flummoxed by his decisions,

I haven't really followed NY lately, but what did he do that was wrong?

[celedhring]

What I find interesting is that death rates continue to decline across the Western world despite rising case numbers. Will be interesting to eventually learn the cause for that - virus mutation, existing large-scale immunity, better clinical treatment?

I think it's too soon for mutation and very few areas will have enough infections for immunity to make a difference - maybe the worst hit bits of Italy, the UK, Spain, New York?

But I think better knowledge of the disease and how to treat it are key. We're seeing far fewer stories about weird symptoms now and I can think of at least two treatment breakthroughs in UK studies that have been heavily reported over here. One for the use of remsdesivir which reduces the fatality rate of the most severe cases and the Synairgen study:
https://www.synairgen.com/covid-19/

This combined with the news on the various vaccine development programs is something that I think gives a lot of hope. The scientific effort around this, in such a short space of time seems remarkable for someone with no scientific background.

Friend of mine that works in a hospital told me that just a better understanding of treatment protocols (i.e., they are better at tracking and knowing when a patient is likely to get worse, and thus act sooner), and how to use existing first-line drugs has improved outcomes dramatically. Plus the fact that hospitals are not overburdened.

I still think that better testing plays a large part too. The number of asymptomatic cases detected in Spain is now at 40-50%, when it was a pitiful figure during the worst days of april-may.

[Sheilbh]

Friend of mine that works in a hospital told me that just a better understanding of treatment protocols (i.e., they are better at tracking and knowing when a patient is likely to get worse, and thus act sooner), and how to use existing first-line drugs has improved outcomes dramatically. Plus the fact that hospitals are not overburdened.

I still think that better testing plays a large part too. The number of asymptomatic cases detected in Spain is now at 40-50%, when it was a pitiful figure during the worst days of april-may.

Yeah I can believe all of that. I mean it must be terrifying in the hospitals in the early days when the best you can do is treat the symptoms because you have no idea what each symptom means or how the disease progresses.

And definitely testing is part of it. I don't know how many are asymptomatic in the UK. We still get about 5-600 new cases a day (and there's finally good-ish, public local regional data on infections: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=47574f7a6e454dc6a42c5f6912ed7076) in England, from 100,000 tests, but are down to about 1,600 people in hospital which is trending down.

Edit: Incidentally I think DG's right though - the IFR is still estimated to be somewhere between .5-1% and, I think, probably around 0.7-0.8% from what I've read. It's just the case fatality rate (which was basically useless in the early days when so many cases weren't cauth) is starting to align with that.

[alfred russel]

And as I say I just don't see the value of comparing yourself to the worst outbreak in the developed world as your measure of success.

there's a saying in Quebec: quand on se regarde on se désole, quand on se compare on se console(when we look at ourselves we're saddenned,  when we compare ourselves we're comforted).
Although it was meant to say that even though we ain't the greatest, we're doing not so bad (and we can do better), it kinda evolved to mean that we're just fine since Haiti is in a worst shape than Quebec, therefore we have nothing to complain about.

So that's the relative value.  As long as someone else somewhere is doing worst, you're just fine.  Kinda the same reasoning as the poor whites and the Civil War issue.  As long as there were slaves, they could look down on the blacks and take comfort that they were better than some other group.  With everyone equal, there's nothing to look at below you and you become frustrated of being stuck were you are. 

As long as big cities like NYC are in a worst shape, it means Florida and Georgia are doing ok, otherwise, they would be worst than NYC.  Repeat it often enough, and it will become truth.
[/i]

Wut???

This morning I was comparing Florida, Georgia, and Texas to the national average, and when MM objected that the national average included New York and New Jersey, I pulled them out and those three  states were still better than the national average (a couple of those states are getting very close to the national average excluding NY and NJ, however).

Of course if I suggested that we pull Miami, Houston, and Atlanta out of the comparisons I suspect there would be a bunch of objections.

[Valmy]

I understand. Disaster for the irresponsible states is always just a little further off.

Oh...is what we are having right now not a disaster? I mean from my perspective all my worst fears from when we started to re-open have come true.

2 thoughts on that:

1) I thought this was about flattening the curve to keep hospitals from getting overwhelmed. Hospitals haven't been overwhelmed. This doesn't seem like a worst fear scenario.

2) I realize this isn't a democrat/republican thing, but if you look at the worst states on a per capita level, 8 of the 10 have democrats in charge (massachusetts and maryland are the exceptions). It is really tough to look at the state level data and pull out that trumpist governors have enacted irresponsible strategies versus the rest of the country.

My concern, as I believe I stated earlier, was that we already went through a bunch of pain here in Texas in March-May so I was worried by re-opening we would get hit hard and lose whatever benefits we paid so dearly for. Well that seems to have happened and things seem really fucking bad now as there is no end in sight. We are, or at least seem to be, completely fucked. Now we have school opening next month and holy shit I hope that it isn't the total clusterfuck it seems like it will be but so far 2020 has been short on pleasant surprises for Texas.

Now I guess, to your first thought, it certainly could be worse. We could have our hospitals fill up and a massive increase in deaths could be happening. Well that's true but if the standard for disaster is that it is only a disaster if the situation could be worse then nothing could ever be a disaster.

All I know is that where I am it looks like a disaster and by any logical and reasonable standard is. We are now seemingly stuck in this shitty situation indefinitely.

[Syt]

https://www.westernjournal.com/kentucky-couple-placed-house-arrest-not-signing-self-quarantine-documents/

Kentucky Couple Placed Under House Arrest for Not Signing Self-Quarantine Documents

A Kentucky woman who disliked a COVID-19-related document she was told to sign is now under house arrest, along with her husband.

The saga began last week when Elizabeth Linscott of Hardin County planned to visit her parents in Michigan and wanted to be tested.

"My grandparents wanted to see me, too," Linscott told WAVE-TV in Louisville. "So, just to make sure if I tested negative, that they would be OK, that everything would be fine."

Life did not work out that way.

Linscott tested positive, although she was asymptomatic.

Then the government got into the picture, and she was told what to do next by the Hardin County Health Department.

"I agreed to comply to call the Health Department if I was to go. I was to call the Health Department if I was to leave my house for any reason," Linscott said, according to KABC-TV.

She also was told she had to sign a document that said she had to get Health Department approval before going anywhere. Linscott declined, finding the document far too broad.

"If I have to go to the ER, if I have to go to the hospital, I'm not going to wait to get the approval to go," she said, adding that she had no problem notifying officials or telling hospital workers she had tested positive.

But the county was not happy she didn't sign the form.

"I had gotten a message from them, a text message that stated, because of your refusal to sign, this is going to be escalated, and law enforcement will be involved," she said.

The government kept its word. The county sheriff's office paid a house call.

"I open up the door, and there's like eight different people, five different cars, and I'm like, 'What the heck's going on?' This guy's in a suit with a mask. It's the Health Department guy, and they have three papers for us. For me, her and my daughter," said Isaiah Linscott, Elizabeth's husband.

Sheriff John Ward said his office was on hand to execute an order from a Hardin Circuit Court judge, the Louisville Courier-Journal reported.

In a post Sunday on the sheriff's office's Facebook page, Ward said, "The Hardin County Sheriff's Office serves Court Orders from both Hardin Circuit and District Courts on a daily basis. If you have inquiries on a specific order you must contact the issuing court."

The Linscotts have been ordered to wear ankle monitors and are allowed to roam 200 feet from the house before law enforcement is notified.

"We didn't rob a store. We didn't steal something. We didn't hit and run. We didn't do anything wrong," Elizabeth Linscott said.

She made it clear that she never said she would not self-quarantine; she simply would not sign a form with which she disagreed.

"That's exactly what the director of the Public Health Department told the judge, that I was refusing to self-quarantine because of this, and that's not the case at all," Linscott said. "I never said that."

Linscott said the family planned to get an attorney.

[DGuller]

Florida (and Georgia) are reaching ICU bed capacity. Don't worry. Those death numbers will start going up.

I understand. Disaster for the irresponsible states is always just a little further off.

Would either of you be brave enough to put numbers on this?  What number of deaths will signify death numbers going up, which won't ever happen if you're an optimist or which will happen if you're an optimist?