Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Sheilbh]

Yeah - I mean the flipside is there have been concerns about people in parks, people being divs on beaches in the bank holiday, BLM protests and none of those have actually led to a spike as feared. The only "events" that have have been Atletico-Liverpool and the Cheltenham Festival and I think in both of those cases there are disputes over how big the impact was. And in terms of where we are with the disease we're opening later than Spain, France or Italy.

But I feel like the chance of other European countries getting pissed up and acceidentally starting mass transmission are lower so...

I will be getting a haircut and have been drinking with friends in parks. I went to a cafe with an outdoor space today - and it was a delight. I might go to a pub with a beer garden but I think that's about the level of my comfort. Not particularly keen on these indoor spaces opening up.

Edit: And great piece about all the raves and the new summer of love:
https://www.theguardian.com/music/2020/jun/30/off-their-heads-the-shocking-return-of-the-rave?utm_source=pocket-newtab-global-en-GB

Edit: And apparently after all of the chat about language difficulties etc the source of the Leicester outbreak is possibly the fast fashion clothes factories. A bit like the meat packing factories they're indoors and they've got cramped, undistanced working conditions (some are in terraced houses)

[katmai]

Excerpt from NYT article.

On Thursday, after the World Health Organization held a two-day online meeting of 1,300 scientists from around the world, the agency's chief scientist, Dr. Soumya Swaminathan, said the consensus for now was that the IFR is about 0.6% — which means that the risk of death is less than 1%.

Although she did not note this, 0.6% of the world's population is 47 million people, and 0.6% of the U.S. population is 2 million people. The virus remains a major threat.

At present, countries have very different case fatality rates, or CFRs, which measure deaths among patients known to have had COVID-19. In most cases, that number is highest in countries that have had the virus the longest.

According to data gathered by The New York Times, China had reported 90,294 cases as of Friday and 4,634 deaths, which is a CFR of 5%. The United States was very close to that mark. It has had 2,811,447 cases and 129,403 deaths, about 4.6%.

Those percentages are far higher rates than the 2.5% death rate often ascribed to the 1918 flu pandemic. Still, it is difficult to measure fatality rates during pandemics, especially at the beginning

[jimmy olsen]

With hospitals being overwhelmed, the fatality rate is about to spike
https://twitter.com/keithboykin/status/1279924971146485760

Texas Doctor: I got 10 calls yesterday for young people who will die if they don't get ICU support, but I only have three beds left.

[Syt]

Austrian numbers have doubled from 470s to 950s within a week.

EDIT: Correction - we're at 1016 this morning.

Most new cases are still in Upper Austria, but Vienna also saw a 25% increase to 347 over the weekend.

[Josquius]

I wonder how different the mask thing would be if it was winter. I could certainly see myself covering my face more than I do in cold weather.
In sticky hot 20+ degrees the mask does feel a big inconvenience

[garbon]

I wonder how different the mask thing would be if it was winter. I could certainly see myself covering my face more than I do in cold weather.
In sticky hot 20+ degrees the mask does feel a big inconvenience

[Tamas]

I guess some, even significant level of increase in cases was to be expected? I mean restrictions have been eased everywhere. Let's hope it remains contained and the vaccine arrives soon.

[Sheilbh]

I guess some, even significant level of increase in cases was to be expected? I mean restrictions have been eased everywhere. Let's hope it remains contained and the vaccine arrives soon.

Yeah - and because, in Europe, the number of confirmed cases are quite low, even a comparatively small outbreak can have a bit impact on the numbers. I saw lots of hyperventilation when Germany's R value went to 2.88 but that is because the rate was low and then there was a big outbreak in a meatpacking factory. There was very little coverage of that explanation and the fact that their R value returned to safe territory the next week.

Edit: I hadn't realised this but apparently pubs need to keep a record of people who are on site for 3 weeks which they can then provide to public health authorities if necessary. Which makes sense but is just one of those really weird things/changes.

[celedhring]

We currently have IIRC five county-sized regions (for around 400,000 people affected) under different levels of lockdown. Hopefully this time we are catching these transmission chains early and nipping them in the bud, unlike back in March. But it feels uneasy.

[Syt]

[Iormlund]

[Admiral Yi]

But he was right!  Someone can explain it.

[HVC]

I wonder how different the mask thing would be if it was winter. I could certainly see myself covering my face more than I do in cold weather.
In sticky hot 20+ degrees the mask does feel a big inconvenience

20+? Poor baby! . its the mid to high 30's here with humidity. it's just a damn mask

[Admiral Yi]

I get tired of my mask after about 3 minutes.  No way I could wear one for an eight hour work shift.

[Zoupa]

I get tired of my mask after about 3 minutes.  No way I could wear one for an eight hour work shift.

I worked 12 hours yesterday with a mask and visor on. How did you guys ever win a war?