Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Richard Hakluyt]

The only possible explanation beside arrogance is incompetence, and I don't think we had too much of the latter outside of the higher echelons of political power.

I'm not sure it's a UK specific thing. Even European successes had a worse outbreak and more severe lockdown than was common in East Asia. I think there's definitely a UK issue though. Despite there being almost no genuinely new policy ideas under the sun it always feels like we never try to learn from the experience of other countries. And that this isn't just a current thing either - it was true during New Labour and the Coalition as well, I think part of it is the UK political class are obsessed with American politics so they all want to know how to be LBJ (Osborne famously expected all his aides to read Caro, I think Brown did too) and look at policies there, but very few follow or care about European politics which are far more similar, or look at experiences in Asia or Latin America or Africa.

Part of it may just be politics. The Taiwanese representative here said they tried throughout January to set up meetings with the Health Department. Ultimately, if you're a civil servant in the Department of Health there is no way you are going to meet someone from the Taiwanese government without running it past the Foreign Office and probably the ministers. But that doesn't explain why we weren't trying to learn from Korea.

And I think there's a fair bit more incompetence in our system than just at the top level of politicians

We are a mediocre second-rate sort of country; if we were a football team we would probably be Wolverhampton Wanderers. That is not as bad as it might sound, still better than the bottom 80% after all; but the arrogance and inability to learn from the successes and mistakes of others is dragging us down. I am so tired of all the "world-beating", the "NHS is the envy of the world" and all the rest of the self-serving crap that British politicians routinely wheel out. Right now one can only hope that further slippage down the world rankings is modest in scope.

[DGuller]

I think other key bits for East Asia is probably the recent experience with pandemics. But also there must be something in how the governments responded that actually just worked better than what European and American governments tried. As I say I don't understand why we weren't trying to learn from Korea and Taiwan in January/February. I saw one comment in an article about France's response where a French civil servant basically said part of it was arrogance: France is a bigger power and not a country that takes lessons from a country like South Korea. I think that was definitely at play in the UK too - arrogance, with a little bit of cultural/racist views that stopped us from learning.

I think a lot of the difference has to do with the model of governance in Asia.  It seems like Asian governments in general are unusually capable of acting decisively and competently, they're willing to enforce their decisions, and their populace is willing to go along with the mandates.

[Sheilbh]

We are a mediocre second-rate sort of country; if we were a football team we would probably be Wolverhampton Wanderers. That is not as bad as it might sound, still better than the bottom 80% after all; but the arrogance and inability to learn from the successes and mistakes of others is dragging us down. I am so tired of all the "world-beating", the "NHS is the envy of the world" and all the rest of the self-serving crap that British politicians routinely wheel out. Right now one can only hope that further slippage down the world rankings is modest in scope.

I mean Wolves are quite impressive at the moment with free-spending Chinese owners and an innovative Portuguese coach - we could only wish for such success

Yeah I think it's in everything in our politics not a right v left thing. The NHS is the envy of the world is a really good example - the country we compare ourselves to is the US which is bonkers. There are loads of other countries with universal healthcare and most of them have better outputs than the NHS. And the German virologist explicitly said "market forces" is why Germany was able to ramp up testing and we didn't - their decentralised, social insurance system helped. But any slight criticism of the NHS is seen as a desire to move wholesale to the American model rather than, say, learning from the multiple, very successful systems very close by in Europe

If you look at international surveys, the NHS is a world leader in efficiency - it gets decent results for a comparatively low budget. And that may be what the British want, if we're honest with ourselves: a reasonably cheap, reasonably good, universal health care system. But we can't be honest about that.

[Duque de Bragança]

We are a mediocre second-rate sort of country; if we were a football team we would probably be Wolverhampton Wanderers. That is not as bad as it might sound, still better than the bottom 80% after all; but the arrogance and inability to learn from the successes and mistakes of others is dragging us down. I am so tired of all the "world-beating", the "NHS is the envy of the world" and all the rest of the self-serving crap that British politicians routinely wheel out. Right now one can only hope that further slippage down the world rankings is modest in scope.

I mean Wolves are quite impressive at the moment with free-spending Chinese owners and an innovative Portuguese coach - we could only wish for such success

Oh yes, the Jorge Mendes Premier League showroom. 
NES got free rein and more money than in Porto? Quite possibly.

Yeah I think it's in everything in our politics not a right v left thing. The NHS is the envy of the world is a really good example - the country we compare ourselves to is the US which is bonkers. There are loads of other countries with universal healthcare and most of them have better outputs than the NHS. And the German virologist explicitly said "market forces" is why Germany was able to ramp up testing and we didn't - their decentralised, social insurance system helped. But any slight criticism of the NHS is seen as a desire to move wholesale to the American model rather than, say, learning from the multiple, very successful systems very close by in Europe

If you look at international surveys, the NHS is a world leader in efficiency - it gets decent results for a comparatively low budget. And that may be what the British want, if we're honest with ourselves: a reasonably cheap, reasonably good, universal health care system. But we can't be honest about that.

It still could use £ 350 million more per week though. 

[Richard Hakluyt]

I didn't know Wolves were doing so well 

I wonder what the Portuguese PM is like? Maybe we can swap him for Johnson 

[The Larch]

I wonder what the Portuguese PM is like?

Here you have him, Antonio Costa, a half-Indian (his paternal family were Goan catholics, IIRC) socialist lawyer. 



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ant%C3%B3nio_Costa

[Sheilbh]

From my distance he's seemed really impressive - one of the only bright spots for the mainstream left in Europe

[crazy canuck]

  Is it that Florida's response is a disaster, and that there is a statistical evidence to prove it?

My thesis is simple: we don't know yet.  But the jury is definitely out on Florida's "success"

So much for Florida's "success" and the general thesis of AF, that the US is pretty much Canada if you remove NY.

The elevated case numbers are a result of worsening conditions across much of the country as well as increased testing, but testing alone does not explain the surge. The percentage of people in Florida testing positive has risen sharply. Increases in hospitalizations also signal the virus's spread. Arizona reported its highest number of virus hospitalizations on Monday.  In Texas, more than 4,000 people with the virus are hospitalized, more than double the number at the beginning of June.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/world/coronavirus-updates.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

[celedhring]

Tool to calculate how fucked up you'll be if you get Covid.

http://evidence.ohdsi.org:3838/Covid19CoverPrediction/

I get:

1.2% to get hospitalized
0.3% of needing intensive care
0.1% of kicking the bucket

[Barrister]

1.6, .3 and .2 respectively.  Yuck.

[Sheilbh]

So much for Florida's "success" and the general thesis of AF, that the US is pretty much Canada if you remove NY.

The most alarming state is Arizona which is seeing the 20% of tests come back positive, there's now a big spike in hospitalisation. This may not lead to more deaths, but that seems unlikely.

Also Texas is striking as the Governor's now said they're facing a massive outbreak and encouraging people to stay home. Also interesting early indications of another collapse in the hospitality sector - which I think is, again, a sign that it's not a choice between closing things down or opening them if people don't feel safe. Until people feel safe/confident they're not going to go out and spend money.

Edit: Also I got 0.7%, 0.2% and 0.1%.

[alfred russel]

So much for Florida's "success" and the general thesis of AF, that the US is pretty much Canada if you remove NY.

The elevated case numbers are a result of worsening conditions across much of the country as well as increased testing, but testing alone does not explain the surge. The percentage of people in Florida testing positive has risen sharply. Increases in hospitalizations also signal the virus's spread. Arizona reported its highest number of virus hospitalizations on Monday.  In Texas, more than 4,000 people with the virus are hospitalized, more than double the number at the beginning of June.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/world/coronavirus-updates.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

That wasn't a thesis. I made two statements of fact: the deaths per million in Canada and the US ex. the tri state area. I then noted those numbers were not so different.

That aside, thanks for the heads up that things are getting worse in the US. I'm sure that this time it is really going to happen.

[Zoupa]

I mean, the curve is not flattening at all, and that's with all the fishy numbers being put up. I you want to disagree with numbers... :shrug:

[crazy canuck]

So much for Florida's "success" and the general thesis of AF, that the US is pretty much Canada if you remove NY.

The elevated case numbers are a result of worsening conditions across much of the country as well as increased testing, but testing alone does not explain the surge. The percentage of people in Florida testing positive has risen sharply. Increases in hospitalizations also signal the virus's spread. Arizona reported its highest number of virus hospitalizations on Monday.  In Texas, more than 4,000 people with the virus are hospitalized, more than double the number at the beginning of June.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/world/coronavirus-updates.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

That wasn't a thesis. I made two statements of fact: the deaths per million in Canada and the US ex. the tri state area. I then noted those numbers were not so different.

That aside, thanks for the heads up that things are getting worse in the US. I'm sure that this time it is really going to happen.

What do you mean this time, its been happening the whole time.  But go rock climbing by all means possible.

[crazy canuck]

So much for Florida's "success" and the general thesis of AF, that the US is pretty much Canada if you remove NY.

The most alarming state is Arizona which is seeing the 20% of tests come back positive, there's now a big spike in hospitalisation. This may not lead to more deaths, but that seems unlikely.

Also Texas is striking as the Governor's now said they're facing a massive outbreak and encouraging people to stay home. Also interesting early indications of another collapse in the hospitality sector - which I think is, again, a sign that it's not a choice between closing things down or opening them if people don't feel safe. Until people feel safe/confident they're not going to go out and spend money.

Edit: Also I got 0.7%, 0.2% and 0.1%.

Yeah, there are a number of troubling states.  Washington State is another example.  The difference with Florida is the governors in those other states are acknowledging it is serious and are generally trying to do something about it.  It is one of the reasons I think there is something more systemic going on.  Washington State has done pretty much the same thing BC has done and more.  But their results are terrible.  We have a lot in common but the biggest difference I can think of is our health care systems.  That, in the end, could be where the US really fails.  Once someone loses their job they lose their medical insurance and Washington state is an "at will" state meaning an employer can terminate any time they want..