Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[alfred russel]

The wolf has eaten over 120,000 sheep, including over 3000 Florida sheep.  I don't think that analogy quite works.

It absolutely works. Covid 19 is here. You can't wish it away, just like you can't wish away cancer, heart disease, etc. The question is what kind of response to take, what response is effective, and what is pointlessly restrictive.

New York has been very restrictive, and has had 31,260 sheep eaten. Florida has been all over the map, and has had 3,176 sheep eaten.

[DGuller]

The point I'm making: why is Florida doing better than the country average, and dramatically better than a bunch of the countries in Europe? It has a Trumpist governor, and now you are saying that *people* in the state don't seem interested in following the basic guidelines.

How is Florida doing better???? While much of the country has bent the curve, Florida is spiking.

Great--so maybe in March, Florida did relatively well versus the rest of the country because it was warmer. But now the North is as warm as South Florida was in March.

New case numbers in New York now are around the same as Florida in March/April.

I think you are looking at different derivatives.  AR is looking at zeroth derivative, while you're looking at first derivative.  Florida is going in the wrong direction, but so far it's in a relatively good place.  New York is going in the right direction, but it's going in the right direction from an unmitigated catastrophe.

[alfred russel]

I think you are looking at different derivatives.  AR is looking at zeroth derivative, while you're looking at first derivative.  Florida is going in the wrong direction, but so far it's in a relatively good place.  New York is going in the right direction, but it's going in the right direction from an unmitigated catastrophe.

Fullest disclosure. California has supposedly responded really well to this crisis. Florida, of course, has supposedly been a mess. For some time, both have been below the national average on deaths per capita. However, Florida has been slightly worse than California. For a couple months I've been checking this daily, because California is steadily closing its gap with Florida on per capita death. To my narrow mind at least, it would be meaningful if California jumps into the lead, as the two states have similarish climates and the governors offices have taken such different approaches.

It has been very very gradual. Something like when Florida was at 90 deaths / million, California was at 75, and now the numbers are 147 to 139.

I'm skeptical that Florida is going in the wrong direction because it hasn't shown up in the death numbers, but there have been several predictions of doom in Florida. Death is a lagging indicator of course, and it is possible something has changed in the last week or days. We will see.

[viper37]

New York has been very restrictive, and has had 31,260 sheep eaten. Florida has been all over the map, and has had 3,176 sheep eaten.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/05/20/coronavirus-may-have-caused-hundreds-of-additional-deaths-in-florida/

[The Minsky Moment]

The wolf has eaten over 120,000 sheep, including over 3000 Florida sheep.  I don't think that analogy quite works.

It absolutely works. Covid 19 is here. You can't wish it away, just like you can't wish away cancer, heart disease, etc. The question is what kind of response to take, what response is effective, and what is pointlessly restrictive.

New York has been very restrictive, and has had 31,260 sheep eaten. Florida has been all over the map, and has had 3,176 sheep eaten.

No that's a misreading of the facts. We now know that New York had 31,260 sheep eaten because it wasn't restrictive enough fast enough.  The wolves were in the barnyard chomping away while the farmer slept. 

[The Minsky Moment]

It absolutely works. Covid 19 is here. You can't wish it away, just like you can't wish away cancer, heart disease, etc.

I think we are talking about different stories involving boys and wolves.

[The Brain]

It absolutely works. Covid 19 is here. You can't wish it away, just like you can't wish away cancer, heart disease, etc.

I think we are talking about different stories involving boys and wolves.

Please elaborate.

[alfred russel]

No that's a misreading of the facts. We now know that New York had 31,260 sheep eaten because it wasn't restrictive enough fast enough.  The wolves were in the barnyard chomping away while the farmer slept.

We don't know that. NY made effective in place shelter in place on March 22. Florida did so April 1.

Covid 19 may have been in NY earlier than in Florida, but they both had their first case confirmed on the same day, March 1. I really doubt NY has ~15 times the deaths of Florida because it wasn't restrictive fast enough.

[alfred russel]

It absolutely works. Covid 19 is here. You can't wish it away, just like you can't wish away cancer, heart disease, etc.

I think we are talking about different stories involving boys and wolves.

The expectation has been that places like Florida, that have been blase about this whole thing, would have disproportionately higher deaths, and quite possibly overwhelm their medical systems. As the Atlantic titled an article when Georgia removed its restrictions, "Georgia's Experiment in Human Sacrifice".

It was all bullshit. It never happened. It was alarmism at its worst.

There have now been months of dire predictions--maybe eventually they will come to pass, what I see personally seems to make that plausible--but I'll believe it when I see it.

[Zoupa]

I guess 120 000 deaths is not dire enough 

[Eddie Teach]

It absolutely works. Covid 19 is here. You can't wish it away, just like you can't wish away cancer, heart disease, etc.

I think we are talking about different stories involving boys and wolves.

Please elaborate.

Founding of Rome.

[Sheilbh]

First sign of what I mean about these spikes - Utah has had a spike in positive cases, while testing is plateauing. Hospitalisations are also increasing. They do have test and trace efforts but apparently these aren't keeping up so the state epidemiologist has talked about potentially needing a full lockdown again because Utah's in an acceleration phase again.

[The Brain]

It absolutely works. Covid 19 is here. You can't wish it away, just like you can't wish away cancer, heart disease, etc.

I think we are talking about different stories involving boys and wolves.

Please elaborate.

Founding of Rome.

Rome.

[garbon]

https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2020/jun/22/museums-galleries-and-cinemas-to-reopen-in-england-from-4-july

Museums, galleries and cinemas will be allowed to reopen from 4 July, alongside pubs, restaurants and hairdressers, Boris Johnson will announce on Tuesday in a decisive but potentially risky easing of lockdown measures in England.

Two days later, millions of people with underlying health issues will be permitted to leave their homes and mix with groups for the first time in three months, it was announced on Monday.

But as Downing Street hailed the "opening up", doctors, unions and charities voiced concerns over the shift away from lockdown and the planned halving of the 2-metre distancing rule that has been in place since March. The change has been billed by Downing Street as ultimately a political decision based on balancing health concerns and economic wellbeing.

Unions representing shop and hospitality staff complained of a lack of consultation by the government over the reduced distance rule, set to be formally announced by Johnson in the Commons on Tuesday. All the changes apply to England only, and are dependent on continued lower infection rates.

...

[Monoriu]

Sixth fatality in Hong Kong.  We only had a very small number of local cases in recent weeks, like 10 or so.  But there are two deaths.