Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[The Minsky Moment]

But my issue here is that in March, April, May, and now June there have been stories of impending doom in Florida specifically. It hasn't happened. At a certain point you should stop looking at the doom that may be right around the corner and question why it hasn't yet arrived.

Why have their been predictions of impending doom in Florida? I think a lot of it has to do with a Trumpist governor that seems intent to live up to Florida Man stereotypes. The point isn't that Florida Man figured out the secret to beating coronavirus back in March, the point is that if Florida makes "dumb" decisions but doesn't face negative consequences, maybe the "smart" decisions weren't very productive.

I don't know about "doom" but having several thousand new reported cases daily is not a good outcome.  I don't think the "Trumpist governor" is the issue per se.  From my admittedly anecdotal discussions with Florida residents, the fact that *people* in the state don't seem interested in following the basic guidelines seems to be a contributing factor.

[Sheilbh]

I am highly dubious developing nations are better prepared. The reason they have more experience in dealing with infectious diseases is because they can't control the diseases that developed countries easily handle.

Yeah I don't think it applies everywhere. Bu I think experience of pandemics helps - I think it's one of the reasons Asian states have responded better than European and American ones, you know, Vietnam has this contained far better than lots of far richer countries. Similarly there's been some reall interesting examples in Africa - and there seems to be a bit of divergence in how the epidemics are progressing. But my basic point is I don't think being in a developing country is the reason Brazil's facing their issues.e

I don't think we've ever particularly disagreed on sustainability of measures. Except I don't think lockdown is a policy. In my view the options aren't lockdown v no lockdown. Lockdown just happens when you fail and gives you time to build a system to control the infection.

[garbon]

Except I don't think lockdown is a policy. In my view the options aren't lockdown v no lockdown. Lockdown just happens when you fail and gives you time to build a system to control the infection.

While it might not be a standalone policy, how is it not a policy?

[Tamas]

I know it's not nice but the more oppressive/secretive a regime are the less I trust their numbers.

I think the thing with Covid is that if you don't test and people don't get hospital care (to overwhelm them) than the numbers we are looking at (official Covid death toll, number of patients, number of Covid patients in ICU) become very very good indeed wile in the bakground tens of thousands die at home.

[Sheilbh]

Except I don't think lockdown is a policy. In my view the options aren't lockdown v no lockdown. Lockdown just happens when you fail and gives you time to build a system to control the infection.

While it might not be a standalone policy, how is it not a policy?

Fair - maybe solution is the better word. But also I just think I don't think it would ever be anyone's choice to deal with this. It's like the joke about getting directions in the countryside, you know, "well, I wouldn't start from here" - it's the same with lockdown. It's either out of control or you don't think you can control it once it arrives so you need the bluntest measure possible to buy time.

[Zanza]

Interesting visualization that shows when countries had their peak and how they fare now.

[alfred russel]

I'm not sure what point you are tying to make here.
NYC gets very hot in the summer - I would not call it cool.  I've been in Florida many times in March and it is also not cool.  I suppose cool is subjective but to me it implies highs in the 50s, maybe low 60s at most.

Is there a claim that the climate made Florida immune?  If so, I would think that has now been definitively disproven.

New York, while not immune, has clearly reduced case numbers, although not I suspect principally because of climate.

The point I'm making: why is Florida doing better than the country average, and dramatically better than a bunch of the countries in Europe? It has a Trumpist governor, and now you are saying that *people* in the state don't seem interested in following the basic guidelines.

I asked this question a while back, and Malthus said, "well, Florida has a warmer climate and that may have something to do with it."

Great--so maybe in March, Florida did relatively well versus the rest of the country because it was warmer. But now the North is as warm as South Florida was in March.

As someone from Florida now living in Georgia, I consider a day with a high at or below 80 to be cool, but I acknowledge perspectives can differ.

[Savonarola]

I don't know about "doom" but having several thousand new reported cases daily is not a good outcome.  I don't think the "Trumpist governor" is the issue per se.  From my admittedly anecdotal discussions with Florida residents, the fact that *people* in the state don't seem interested in following the basic guidelines seems to be a contributing factor.

Orlando has been the new hot spot in Florida.  Most of the new cases are people under 40; so experts think it's because the bars have re-opened.  It's now mandatory to wear a mask when in public in Orange county ( ), but there's no penalty for not wearing one... unless the neighborhood watch steps in. (Okay that was Seminole county, not Orange.)

South Florida (Miami and Fort Lauderdale) are ongoing hot spots; but I don't think the bars are open there, yet.  It could be that people have just given up following guidelines.

[Duque de Bragança]

Fête de la musique had much less events and people than usual yet it was enough to have scenes like these:





Plus, I hope Bernard-Henry Lévy is not asymptomatic since he made a point of shaking hands to fight against the fear epidemic:

[alfred russel]

So as a confession, while months ago I said I was following the rules, somewhere along the way I gave up. My girlfriend's family has a lake house in South Carolina near Clemson, and we have been going there some weekends.

She has a brother that goes to Clemson, and I've gotten some perspective on what the college kids are doing: which is life as normal. He comes over to the house with large groups of people, and the restaurants are filled with groups of college students. So they started testing the Clemson football team last week, and 23 tested positive. There are probably 100 on the team, and that probably means a very significant portion of the team has had it, and it is probably moving through the Clemson student body like wildfire. But they are young and most of the football players at least are asymptomatic (none requiring hospitalization).

[Sheilbh]

Also re % of positive cases and Latin American wave - Mexico looks terrifying

[The Minsky Moment]

The point I'm making: why is Florida doing better than the country average, and dramatically better than a bunch of the countries in Europe? It has a Trumpist governor, and now you are saying that *people* in the state don't seem interested in following the basic guidelines.

How is Florida doing better???? While much of the country has bent the curve, Florida is spiking.

Great--so maybe in March, Florida did relatively well versus the rest of the country because it was warmer. But now the North is as warm as South Florida was in March.

New case numbers in New York now are around the same as Florida in March/April.

[alfred russel]

The point I'm making: why is Florida doing better than the country average, and dramatically better than a bunch of the countries in Europe? It has a Trumpist governor, and now you are saying that *people* in the state don't seem interested in following the basic guidelines.

How is Florida doing better???? While much of the country has bent the curve, Florida is spiking.

Great--so maybe in March, Florida did relatively well versus the rest of the country because it was warmer. But now the North is as warm as South Florida was in March.

New case numbers in New York now are around the same as Florida in March/April.

I'm just looking at death numbers.

New case numbers can be productively analyzed, but it is harder than worthwhile for people posting on the internet...aside from being subject to the number of tests run, there are also comparability issues regarding the people tested.

For example, a month or so ago, there was a national story that Georgia positive cases were spiking. Georgia said it was that they had just started testing migrant worker groups who had massive infection numbers. Supposedly they had been resistant to testing because they thought it was a plot to deport them, and they had been reassured that no immigration action would be taken. Was that true, I have no idea, but our deaths haven't spiked.

Also, if cases increase overall, but decrease among the elderly, that is likely a positive event.

Death is a lagging indicator, but if Florida is really spiking in a way that is negative, we will know in a few weeks. The boy has cried wolf too many times at this point.

[The Minsky Moment]

The wolf has eaten over 120,000 sheep, including over 3000 Florida sheep.  I don't think that analogy quite works.

[The Brain]

Who's afraid of the extremely fat wolf?