Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[The Minsky Moment]

the climate in Florida is cool in March--

?????

[alfred russel]

Sure. I mean I'm not saying the US is a catastrophic world outlier (yet) - but from a distance it seems to be the only country that's effectively given up trying to control this. I've said before but lockdown isn't a policy, it's a really blunt tool when your policy fails which gives you time or space to basically go back to the beginning where the infection is under control.

So Europe had some of the worst outbreaks in the world, but generally lockdown worked and in most countries there's no far more testing capacity (France is an outlier on this) and contact tracing. In theory as lockdown eases it'll be possible to identify cases and clusters and stop them spreading. I think this is present even in countries that never fully locked down like Sweden or Switzerland. I think there's similar infrastructure in most Asian countries.

So what is the US strategy, or even state-level strategies for controlling infection rates? Because from a distance it just seems like the US is accepting bigger risk and (assuming European efforts work as well as Asian ones) probably a higher death rate than normal for the next, what, 3-15 months until we get a vaccine.

I have no idea what the US strategy is. On the state level, I also have no idea. I know there are still rules and I see lots of signs on the road to social distance and wear masks. I thought about looking up the rules to post here, but that would really defeat the point -- if people don't know the rules there isn't much point to them.

I won't be going into work until October at the earliest. At one of my two gyms I have to wear a mask and sign up in advance (because they are limiting numbers). At the other there are signs to please wipe down machines and they take your temperature on the way in. A lot of restaurants seem back to normal.

I think there is something prohibiting mass gatherings. I think schools are planning to reopen--I know state sponsored summer camps have. I know there will be rules in place, though.

It isn't fair to say we have totally given up. I just don't know how we are still trying, besides putting signs on the road. Probably the most effective step is to not give businesses liability shields, so they are cautious to avoid getting sued. 

[The Brain]

At the other there are signs to please wipe down machines and they take your temperature on the way in.

How do they take your temperature?

[alfred russel]

the climate in Florida is cool in March--

?????

Miami average high, in March: 80.3
NYC average high, in June: 79.3

NYC will be hotter than March Miami in July and August.

If Florida was effectively immune despite being run by a Trumpist Florida man because of the climate, that immunity should be coming to the north right about now.

[HVC]

At the other there are signs to please wipe down machines and they take your temperature on the way in.

How do they take your temperature?

Depends on how much they like you

[alfred russel]

At the other there are signs to please wipe down machines and they take your temperature on the way in.

How do they take your temperature?

They have a scanner that takes your temperature from a couple feet away. Every time it has registered my temp as 97.3 degrees, so I don't know how accurate it is. 

[HVC]

the climate in Florida is cool in March--

?????

Miami average high, in March: 80.3
NYC average high, in June: 79.3

NYC will be hotter than March Miami in July and August.

If Florida was effectively immune despite being run by a Trumpist Florida man because of the climate, that immunity should be coming to the north right about now.

Did you Just age the weathe?

[The Brain]

At the other there are signs to please wipe down machines and they take your temperature on the way in.

How do they take your temperature?

They have a scanner that takes your temperature from a couple feet away. Every time it has registered my temp as 97.3 degrees, so I don't know how accurate it is. 

[Grey Fox]

At the other there are signs to please wipe down machines and they take your temperature on the way in.

How do they take your temperature?

They have a scanner that takes your temperature from a couple feet away. Every time it has registered my temp as 97.3 degrees, so I don't know how accurate it is. 

If it's aimed at anything but the skin between your eyes, pretty good.

[alfred russel]

How can you separate out the politics? If a government's response to a crisis leads to serious talk of a military coup and mass protests I think it's fair to say it's been a disaster.

That seems arbitrary. If you think of coronavirus as a test, and deaths per capita as a government's grade, Brazil would be getting a higher grade than the US and Europe.

That Brazil is less stable of a country and far more prone to coups doesn't change that. It is similar to when global economic recessions occur. The developed world gets unemployment and pressure on incumbent politicians, the developing world gets riots and revolutions and coups. That isn't because the developing world causes the recessions or responds more poorly to them.

The point with Florida (and California) is that they're both seeing a spike in the number of positives as a % of tests - so it's not about case numbers on their own. Florida is a bit clearer because they've got better data. But they're been over 10% of tests coming back positive. That's roughly where they were before lockdown. If you're at that sort of level then it feels like it's spreading in the community and is out-pacing your capacity to monitor it.

But they're also leading indicators. There have been reports of a spike in cases before - but normally your very good point is true, it's because there's more testing. The reason I'm flagging Florida, Arizona, Texas and California at the minute is the new case numbers are outpacing testing and that's more of a concern. As I say that's more of a sign that it's spinning out of control again. It may be that there's context that explains this, but from what I understand IFR seems fairly consistent across the survey studies done in China and Europe and the US, so it feels like if there's widespread new cases coming in, we're going to have increasing hospitalisation in the next fortnight and that'll feed into death figures down the line. I don't see any reason why Florida or California would be different.

I get it.

But my issue here is that in March, April, May, and now June there have been stories of impending doom in Florida specifically. It hasn't happened. At a certain point you should stop looking at the doom that may be right around the corner and question why it hasn't yet arrived.

Why have their been predictions of impending doom in Florida? I think a lot of it has to do with a Trumpist governor that seems intent to live up to Florida Man stereotypes. The point isn't that Florida Man figured out the secret to beating coronavirus back in March, the point is that if Florida makes "dumb" decisions but doesn't face negative consequences, maybe the "smart" decisions weren't very productive.

[Tamas]

Could somebody please let DGuller back to his climbing tracks finally?

[DGuller]

Could somebody please let DGuller back to his climbing tracks finally?

I think I made my feelings more than perfectly clear about this crap, far more than once.  You are actively disrespecting me now. 

If you feel like responding to AR's reasoned arguments with cyber bullying is the appropriate course of action, that's your choice, but please leave me out of it.

[Sheilbh]

That seems arbitrary. If you think of coronavirus as a test, and deaths per capita as a government's grade, Brazil would be getting a higher grade than the US and Europe.

That Brazil is less stable of a country and far more prone to coups doesn't change that. It is similar to when global economic recessions occur. The developed world gets unemployment and pressure on incumbent politicians, the developing world gets riots and revolutions and coups. That isn't because the developing world causes the recessions or responds more poorly to them.

I don't

More seriously I think handling the first wave is definitely important, I think also building systems so you can deal with future waves is going to be important because this disease is just going to circulate until there's a vaccine and I think handling the economy and how we deal with the social/economic fallout are all key elements. But also I think emerging with some credibility/legitimacy in your system probably also deserves some marks. Edit: Basically, at best we're a year or two from meaningfully being able to give grades.

And Brazil's issues politically seem unique. As I say AMLO is having a bad crisis but Mexican democracy isn't teetering because he doesn't have the range of personal failings that Bolsonaro does - such as trying to gaslight the entire country about the existence of covid. It's also worth noting that some developing countries have had really excellent results - such as Vietnam - there's also promising signs in some Africa states that they may actually be quite well prepared for this because their public health infrastructure is very experienced in dealing with infectious disease, whereas Public Health England are normally dealing with telling people to eat less sugar or tracing a bout of norovirus back to a dodgy pub kitchen. Some of the richest countries have struggled, some of the poorest have excelled (and per capita isn't a great measurement - everyone started from zero, some developing countries kept it there).

I get it.

But my issue here is that in March, April, May, and now June there have been stories of impending doom in Florida specifically. It hasn't happened. At a certain point you should stop looking at the doom that may be right around the corner and question why it hasn't yet arrived.

Why have their been predictions of impending doom in Florida? I think a lot of it has to do with a Trumpist governor that seems intent to live up to Florida Man stereotypes. The point isn't that Florida Man figured out the secret to beating coronavirus back in March, the point is that if Florida makes "dumb" decisions but doesn't face negative consequences, maybe the "smart" decisions weren't very productive.

You might be right on the media criticism. I think personally I said my concern was whether sensible re-opening decisions were being made and whether systems were put in place to catch an outbreak and stop it reaching community transmission. We're not sure of the source of these new cases in these states, so I don't know about the first bit - but I don't think they have had the systems to catch outbreaks and we're at community transmission. And once it's in the community I don't see any reason to think that it won't behave in exactly the same way it has everywhere else in the world (even if it doesn't reach catastrophic levels like New York).

[alfred russel]

More seriously I think handling the first wave is definitely important, I think also building systems so you can deal with future waves is going to be important because this disease is just going to circulate until there's a vaccine and I think handling the economy and how we deal with the social/economic fallout are all key elements. But also I think emerging with some credibility/legitimacy in your system probably also deserves some marks. Edit: Basically, at best we're a year or two from meaningfully being able to give grades.

And Brazil's issues politically seem unique. As I say AMLO is having a bad crisis but Mexican democracy isn't teetering because he doesn't have the range of personal failings that Bolsonaro does - such as trying to gaslight the entire country about the existence of covid. It's also worth noting that some developing countries have had really excellent results - such as Vietnam - there's also promising signs in some Africa states that they may actually be quite well prepared for this because their public health infrastructure is very experienced in dealing with infectious disease, whereas Public Health England are normally dealing with telling people to eat less sugar or tracing a bout of norovirus back to a dodgy pub kitchen. Some of the richest countries have struggled, some of the poorest have excelled (and per capita isn't a great measurement - everyone started from zero, some developing countries kept it there).

I am highly dubious developing nations are better prepared. The reason they have more experience in dealing with infectious diseases is because they can't control the diseases that developed countries easily handle.

I've been saying since March that whatever is done needs to be sustainable. The whiplash here is extreme to the point I don't know what the rules even are. In mid April I was under a stay at home order under penalty of up to a year in jail if I left for a "non essential reason", and seemingly every week restrictions have dropped to the point I don't know what restrictions still exist.

As an example that Tamas will love: 2 months ago I couldn't go outdoor climbing. Ie--I couldn't drive to a remote location, hike in a few miles, and climb up rocks with a member of my household. Aside from the travel part, the rationale seemed to be that I could touch a rock, and someone else may come along later in the day and touch the same rock, which would transmit covid. I stand by that this was an extremely unlikely method of transmission, but I lost that argument.

Today, climbing gyms are open. While mine requires masks, that isn't a government requirement, and there is an Atlanta area gym that doesn't require them. My gym is limiting capacity, but the limit is 100 people in the gym at a time, so in theory they could have more than 1000 people a day climbing in a indoor environment using the same routes (meaning everyone is touching the same handholds). The risk must be astronomically higher than outdoor climbing.

The science didn't change. The rules were just too much and people quit caring.

Here is something that touches on cancel culture. Wisconsin rules got judicially revoked, and people started going to bars. A TV station found a nurse at a bar, and her going there turned into a national story.

https://chicago.suntimes.com/2020/5/15/21260633/nurse-milwaukee-tv-bar-without-mask-stay-home-order-lifted-wisconsin-supreme-court

This was in the way distant past of a month ago. Now of course lots of people are going to bars. Again, the science didn't change, it is just that people got the option, at first they were cautious, and now they are less so. People will probably continue to be less so until deaths increase.

[The Minsky Moment]

the climate in Florida is cool in March--

?????

Miami average high, in March: 80.3
NYC average high, in June: 79.3

NYC will be hotter than March Miami in July and August.

If Florida was effectively immune despite being run by a Trumpist Florida man because of the climate, that immunity should be coming to the north right about now.

I'm not sure what point you are tying to make here.
NYC gets very hot in the summer - I would not call it cool.  I've been in Florida many times in March and it is also not cool.  I suppose cool is subjective but to me it implies highs in the 50s, maybe low 60s at most.

Is there a claim that the climate made Florida immune?  If so, I would think that has now been definitively disproven.

New York, while not immune, has clearly reduced case numbers, although not I suspect principally because of climate.