Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[merithyn]

This is from April 2020. It's why the parks are closed. None of this includes the risk to emergency workers who would have to pull someone out of a situation they got themselves into with rock climbing, hiking, etc.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2020/03/31/national-parks-coronavirus/

At least seven National Park Service employees have tested positive for the novel coronavirus, yet the Trump administration continues to operate the park system that attracts thousands of Americans each day.

In response to questions from The Washington Post, the agency said Tuesday that as of Monday, seven Park Service employees have tested positive for covid-19, the disease caused by the virus. That figure doesn't include workers in the park who are not federal employees. "The NPS is working with our contractors and concessionaires to track reported cases of their employees as well," Stephanie Roulett, a spokeswoman, wrote in an email.

The Park Service, a division of the Interior Department, will not identify where the affected employees are to protect their identities. The infections came to light in a Wednesday teleconference when Park Service Director David Vela told workers, "this week, sadly, we received word of the first confirmed cases of NPS employees with covid-19."

Last week, the superintendent of Great Smoky Mountains National Park, which straddles the border between Tennessee and North Carolina, said an employee tested positive. It was closed March 24. At Grand Canyon National Park, which drew large crowds over the weekend, a resident in the park's housing complex on the South Rim tested positive.

Roulett said no Park Service employee at Grand Canyon has been diagnosed with covid-19. Officials in Coconino County, which includes the park, have asked it to be shut down.

On Thursday, after the Post reported the controversy over the Grand Canyon, the National Park Service said it would close the Arizona landmark.

Covid-19 is a highly infectious disease. "Whenever you see the virus, it's moved on already — it will have infected other people by the time you become aware of it," said Bill Hanage, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.

The Park Service has closed more than 100 sites to protect against spreading the coronavirus, including some of its most popular landmarks — the Golden Gate National Recreation Area, the Statue of Liberty and the Arches and Yellowstone national parks. But more than 300 sites remain open, and the government has waived entrance fees.

In a sign of the potential risk some employees face, Assistant Secretary for Fish, Wildlife and Parks Rob Wallace has signed a memo authorizing environmental hazard pay for some workers. The agency is still working out the details but intends it for custodial staff and employees who come into close contact with visitors.

News that the virus is spreading through national parks staffs has sparked complaints from employees who are still compelled to go to work. On Monday, Interior Secretary David Bernhardt sent a note to department employees reiterating the importance of keeping operations going despite the pandemic.

"Your continued perseverance to continue the work at hand is recognized and appreciated," Bernhardt wrote in the opening paragraph. He pressed employees to continue working. "I appreciate and expect that all department employees will continue to fulfill their duties and responsibilities as assigned while also taking necessary steps to preserve their health and safety and attend to the needs of their families," he wrote.

Roulett said the agency determined the risk posed by infected employees to others was low because the window for exposure occurred after the park curtailed access, employees were teleworking or "the employee who tested positive did not work in close contact with visitors and once identified, went into self isolation."

These 'mission critical' federal employees are still reporting to the office. And they're terrified they'll get sick

But many rank-and-file employees are afraid of transferring the illness to family members, said Dustin Stone, a Park Service worker in Alaska who quit about two weeks ago over Bernhardt's refusal to close the parks. Like some park superintendents and leaders in neighboring communities, Stone is pressing to close parks during the outbreak.

Sen. Joe Manchin III (W.Va.), the ranking Democrat on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, along with a group of 10 House Democrats led by House Natural Resources Chairman Raul Grijalva (Ariz.), urged Bernhardt in a pair of letters Tuesday to close off more sites to help stop the spread of the virus.

The Park Service said it can operate its attractions in a way that is consistent with public health advisories. "We have issued messages on park websites, social media, and in the press to urge our visitors to follow CDC [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] guidance, and provided additional measures for the public to follow if they choose to visit our parks," Roulett said.

The agency has limited the public's access to narrow trails, park grounds and popular overlooks to adhere to the CDC's guidance on social distancing. "The health and safety of National Park Service visitors, employees, volunteers, and partners is our number one priority," said the spokeswoman.

But many of the restrictions were implemented after visitors crowded onto paths, camps and overlooks, potentially spreading the virus. The alerts do not inform visitors that some staffers have been infected. The Park Service said there was little chance that those who tested positive could have spread the virus to a visitor.

In the weeks leading to the infections of workers, according to several park staffers, top officials appeared to minimize the impact of the outbreak.

The agency's Region 1 website posted a "Tricky Tuesday" entry on March 3 that said the CDC considered the virus "a serious public health threat; however, based on current information, the immediate health risk within the U.S. is considered low at this time. While instances of person-to-person spread between close contacts has been detected in the U.S., this virus is NOT currently spreading throughout U.S. communities."

About a week later, Interior delivered "talking points" to employees that praised President Trump's handling of the crisis. The document, obtained by The Post, noted that Trump had "Suspended all travel coming in from China and Iran" and "delivered a historically strong economy, whether it's on unemployment numbers or on productivity and he's going to keep doing that."

Before last week, Stone in Alaska was the only Park Service employee to speak out against Bernhardt's decision to keep the parks open. After Vela told thousands of employees on the Wednesday conference call that multiple colleagues had the coronavirus and implored them to keep working, that changed.

Trevor Wright was one of several workers at the Lyndon B. Johnson National Historical Park sent home Thursday over concerns about exposure to the virus.

Wright, who has done masonry, carpentry and other maintenance work at the park for five years, asked his supervisors why some parks were open during the pandemic. When he didn't get an answer that satisfied him, Wright sent a letter to his park's superintendent asking for an explanation.

Wright began to email park employees when he failed to get a response — first everyone at his park, then everyone in a region stretching from Montana to Texas. Finally, he emailed nearly every park employee across the country.

"I was so very tired of hearing non-answer answers as to why we were doing this," Wright said in an interview. "No one could tell me why the risk was acceptable or what the perceived benefit was."

A Park Service official said Monday that there are no confirmed cases of agency employees with covid-19 at Lyndon B. Johnson National Historical Park.

As Wright questioned his supervisors in Texas, Great Smoky Mountains National Park closed. At first, the Park Service told media outlets that an employee had tested positive. But by the end of the week, the agency sent a memo to superintendents and public affairs officers instructing them to no longer publicly confirm covid-19 cases in specific parks to "ensure employee privacy."

Kristen Brengel, vice president of government affairs for the National Parks Conservation Association, said the agency should be able to offer more information to park employees and visitors when an infection is confirmed.

"It's really important for people to have this information," she said.

[alfred russel]

Every state park requires staffing if anyone is in them. You don't have to like it or think it's necessary, but that is how it works. They have to be there in case of an emergency. And with climbing, there is always a risk of an emergency. Again, I don't care if you think it's necessary, but the state (and feds) do.

Land use is way more complicated than worth discussing here...but a lot of the land in question is a part of the national forest properties rather than a state or national park. I think the Georgia state parks are all staffed, but there isn't any climbing in Georgia state parks (Georgia climbing is on national property or privately held). For better or worse, Georgia state parks never completely closed during this whole thing, though they closed their services (bathrooms and shops) and trails that crossed federal land at some point (I spent a ton of time in those parks the past couple months). I usually head up to Tennessee or Alabama, where most climbing is on state parks or forests (though some privately held). The place I climb most frequently in Tennessee is a state park and staffed--I have seen rangers, but the park HQ more than 10 miles from where we park. In Alabama the most frequent climbing spot is also a state park, and it is staffed, but not with rangers (one or two staff charge for parking, and sell camping supplies and coffee--it previously wasn't staffed but they added staff to address graffiti and trash problems).

This isn't like the west coast with major national and state parks. If you need a rescue in Yosemite or Mount Rainier, the park service has the resources to respond and can send a helicopter. Rescues in this area come from local EMS. I'm not sure who you get if you need a helicopter--probably a state or private resource.

[merithyn]

So, staff is required or is at least there. Emergency responders are a factor. None of what you've said negates what I'm saying.

Again, if the parks are open, people are working and therefore at risk. If the parks are open, visitors are putting themselves at risk, which puts emergency responders at risk.

I'm not saying they shouldn't be open, but those risks should at the very least be taken into account. Those people matter just as much as anyone who wants to visit those places.

[alfred russel]

This is from April 2020. It's why the parks are closed. None of this includes the risk to emergency workers who would have to pull someone out of a situation they got themselves into with rock climbing, hiking, etc.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2020/03/31/national-parks-coronavirus/

At least seven National Park Service employees have tested positive for the novel coronavirus, yet the Trump administration continues to operate the park system that attracts thousands of Americans each day.

It sucks that 7 have tested positive, but there are there are something like 12,363 employees. That is 0.06% of the workforce. That is less than the population at large.

[merithyn]

This is from April 2020. It's why the parks are closed. None of this includes the risk to emergency workers who would have to pull someone out of a situation they got themselves into with rock climbing, hiking, etc.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2020/03/31/national-parks-coronavirus/

At least seven National Park Service employees have tested positive for the novel coronavirus, yet the Trump administration continues to operate the park system that attracts thousands of Americans each day.

It sucks that 7 have tested positive, but there are there are something like 12,363 employees. That is 0.06% of the workforce. That is less than the population at large.

This was in April. April 1, if I recall correctly. Over six weeks ago, when the virus was still pretty new in the country.

But fuck 'em, I guess. You want to climb.

[crazy canuck]

You have to remember AR's mindset - illness and potential death for others is a small price to pay to allow him to rock climb.  One must have proper priorities.

[Eddie Teach]

AR's motives aside, there is no telling how those seven people contracted the virus.

[alfred russel]

There is a decent amount of national forest land in and around the Atlanta area. They basically are just a part of the city's park and trail system. Until coronavirus I used to use one as a running trail.

They are all closed now. I'm sure there are national park service employees that don't have to show up to these locations as frequently because they are closed. However, the city parks have remained open. My experience has been that those are significantly more crowded than before. The risk of covid transmission isn't being avoided, it is just being transferred to other places and amplified as social distancing becomes more challenging at the more crowded locations.

I'm just going to other parks to run, but presumably some people will go to gyms to use treadmills as an alternative, which seems like a terrible tradeoff.

[Razgovory]

This video of anti-Lock down protesters is really fucking scary.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/business/2020/05/15/reporter-reopen-rally-harass-zw-orig.cnn-business/video/playlists/business-media/

[alfred russel]

On the point to which you responded, I think that most people here agree with me, and probably you understand I am right as well. Which is why you didn't address the point.

Nevertheless, look at the deaths by state.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/country/united-states/

An absolute majority of them are in New York and New Jersey. Europe is getting creamed compared to the US. It seems dense urban populations reliant on public transportation are the vulnerable populations (completely the opposite of the crap being peddled about vulnerable rural populations).

This is in spite of the Trumpist governors staying open for spring break or allowing people to go camping. We are doing dramatically better than Europe despite being led by the Orange One.

A one size fits all solution of "lock everything down" does not seem to be indicated. Those bird watchers walking alone in the lake district really aren't contributing to the disease spread.

How can you still be so stubbornly myopic? 4 weeks ago we had ~200 cases. Currently we have 279,000. Every city is going to get hit. NY and NJ won't be half the deaths by mid May. You're saying we're doing better than Europe today (we aren't) but places like Italy and Spain are further in their curve than places like Florida or Mississippi. It's a facile comparison.

A state like Alabama is going to have ~20-25% more deaths per capita than New York by the time we're done with this outbreak. Up to half of the state has either diabetes, morbid obesity, COPD, or is above age 60. They're not alone in having such a high per capita rate of vulnerable citizens.

If you are strict now in these places with few deaths you save more lives than if you're strict once it because apparent to the stubborn AR's of the world that we should have done something 4 weeks ago.

Now we have more data! An exasperated Fate said I was being stubbornly myopic!!! Was I, or was he?

It is mid May. 44% of deaths are still in New York and New Jersey - while less than half it isn't looking like Florida and Mississippi.

Were Florida and Mississippi just further behind on the curve than Italy and Spain?

Current death rates per 1 million:

Florida: 87.3
Mississippi: 165.7
Italy: 523.1
Spain: 587.7

Actually, it seems like Italy and Spain really were just doing worse. Sorry fate.

Is Alabama going to have ~20-25% more deaths per capita than New York by the time we're done with this outbreak? It isn't over yet of course, but right now the numbers per million are:

New York: 1416.1
Alabama: 97.1

Alabama has an immense amount of ground to make up.

[Zoupa]

I'm glad to see you're finally coming around to the fact that lockdown and social distancing works. 

[The Brain]

What's the deal with state parks and similar in the US? In Sweden there's basically no staff for nature stuff.

So that there is someone to go to for emergencies. As I said.

In Sweden, and apparently in some other countries as well, emergency response in parks is done by normal emergency response organizations. That's why I asked.

[Sheilbh]

Positive early results in the first trials for the Oxford-Astra Zeneca vaccine tests

Edit: Also, interestin R estimates for the UK regions:

LSHTM model is based on case numbers, so the relatively steady changes. The Cambridge model is based on data around movement and lockdown compliance.

[PDH]

In the US the basic R level stands for "Retarded" and that is seemingly climbing

[Josquius]

It's took longer than I  expected to really reach the north outside of some pockets like care homes, but it does seem to be really taking off here. And right at the point when everyone thinks it's over and even many who were obeying the rules are becoming lax....