Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Tamas]

Just what is happening in Russia?
For a long while it seemed they had largely held it off, albeit with some probable shifty cover up business going on, now they're admitting to really high numbers which suggests their actual numbers could be beating the US

I have been unconcerned with Russia since the beginning because I was certain of two things:

1. they are guaranteed to mismanage it
2. they will never be giving the public the full picture, so it's pointless to try and make sense of it

[alfred russel]

But in Georgia it seems crazy that 1,000 acre state parks would be closed, but restaurants or bars with a few sq m are open. And I struggle to see how that could, on any level, be a policy driven by controlling the epidemic. This may just be the way AR is telling it but it sounds like they're actually prioritising re-opening the highest risk areas first

I've been trying to keep it straightforward, but the state parks are generally open. The federal parks and refuges have closed on a case by case basis. I think the logic on federal lands is that trails close to Atlanta are closed due to crowding, a few random trails away from Atlanta are closed if they were getting a lot of traffic, the Appalachian Trail is closed (it starts in Georgia), and any trail that can be used to get to the Appalachian Trail is closed. The sum total is that most federal national forest land/parks in north georgia are closed, including state park trails that at some point cross over onto national forest land that would be closed under federal standards.

The result is really difficult to figure out. I usually try calling state park rangers ahead of time as they know what is happening in the area, but until recently it has been really difficult to reach anyone. I haven't been 100% certain a trail was open until I directly saw it.

What is interesting in this is the difference between our president and our governors. The governor of Georgia is obviously a Trumpist, and when he said for stuff to open, it opened. The president, on the other hand, doesn't seem to be taking much more action than trolling people at press conferences. National Forest Lands are ostensibly under his jurisdiction; equivalent areas in Georgia never closed, we literally now have open bowling alleys, but a large percentage of the wilderness areas are off limits.

It doesn't so much matter at this point--with the state parks in adjoining states reopened there is now a decent amount in the region open--but it is just preposterously dumb.

[mongers]

Some people here are understandable reacting to a worldwide crisis, that also affects nearly everyone individually, by working out some of the tensions in this thread.

Nothing is perfect and this thread won't end up as some dry quasi-academic discussion of public health and statistics, so give people a bit of latitude.

[Sheilbh]

ONS have done a swab survey of people currently infected between April 27 and May 10. They estimate that an average of 148,000 people in the community in England (so excluding care homes or hospitals etc) had covid-19 on any given day in that period, so 0.27% of the population. It was about 1.3% for workers in patient-facing/social care roles. No significant differences across age groups.

Obviously that's a month after lockdown measures so doesn't tell us much about the peak. But the UK government has said the "risk level" we'll be at depends on the number of cases (so prevalence), which I think ONS will be surveying regularly, and the R number, which they have various models working on.

Edit: I don't know what the scientists and government will think of that but that feels like it's probably too high to lift lockdown measures much more. Because even if the R is somewhere between .5 and .9, if the number of people with it is still that high it sems difficult to implement contact tracing/track-and-trace. But I've no idea and it may be that public health people actually look at 0.27% and think that's do-able.

[crazy canuck]

Guys, this pandemic shit has been hard on everybody.  Don't dogpile on Dorsey.  We're all suffering, and dealing with it in our own ways.  He's been a valued member of our community for over 15 years too.

The fuck he is. And fuck you for suggesting that.

I know BB, so the only possible explanation is his account was hacked by Dorsey.

[The Brain]

Guys, this pandemic shit has been hard on everybody.  Don't dogpile on Dorsey.  We're all suffering, and dealing with it in our own ways.  He's been a valued member of our community for over 15 years too.

The fuck he is. And fuck you for suggesting that.

I know BB, so the only possible explanation is his account was hacked by Dorsey.

No. There is another.

[crazy canuck]

Guys, this pandemic shit has been hard on everybody.  Don't dogpile on Dorsey.  We're all suffering, and dealing with it in our own ways.  He's been a valued member of our community for over 15 years too.

The fuck he is. And fuck you for suggesting that.

I know BB, so the only possible explanation is his account was hacked by Dorsey.

No. There is another.

Why do you think so poorly of BB?

[garbon]

Guys, this pandemic shit has been hard on everybody.  Don't dogpile on Dorsey.  We're all suffering, and dealing with it in our own ways.  He's been a valued member of our community for over 15 years too.

The fuck he is. And fuck you for suggesting that.

I know BB, so the only possible explanation is his account was hacked by Dorsey.

I did briefly wonder if it was a joke.

[Tamas]

So do we have any data on how much London public transport and the city general are busy?

Piece Morgan was yelling about it, but you know, that's Pierce Morgan. But at least he has not taken his crush' side on this one.

[Sheilbh]

Yesterday which was the "back to work moment" there was an increase ofabout 7% on last week. It's still overall about 93% lower than the equivalent Wednesday last year.

It's social media videos being shared and people getting angry/outraged. Plus ca change. It's almost like social media and Piers Morgan just amplify the shocking and negative, not the normal and okay

But everyone will get angry in according with their pre-existing biases: Londoners are awful people putting everyone at risk/the government's trying to kill us all/Sadiq isn't running enough trains to embarass the government etc 

Edit: Also there's finally decent data/information coming from government on care homes. This shows that the rate of decline is picking up, but given this shows new reports of outbreaks it's still very high - which makes me think about the comment that the R in the community may be falling but the R in hospitals and care homes has ticked up and is still quite high:

[merithyn]

I think the people losing their shit is this high school clique that has been largely getting obliterated in logical arguments with Dorsey and are instead taking out their frustration by this endless disgusting dogpile.  I'm sure Dorsey can and does stick up for himself, but frankly it's been disgusting to observe this dynamic going on for two months here.

Or maybe he's just being an asshole? That's also an option.

Sheilbh and others have made similar arguments. No one's "dogpiling" them. Again I say, it's not his message; it's his delivery. If you're okay with what and how he's saying it, good on you.

[merithyn]

But I basically agree with AR on outdoor spaces and I think it's particularly insane that they're still closed while, say, bars are open. It does really emphasise that the decision-making on what to re-open is focused on earning money again and not any sort of actual assessment of the risks for covid-19. There's been doubt over how much this disease is transmitted in outdoor spaces (as opposed to bars - see South Korea recently), so the only reason I can assume they're not opening outdoor spaces is no-one will profit from it.

I absolutely agree with this. And your analysis on why.

[merithyn]

Something to think about regarding opening Federal and State lands to hikers/climbers/kayakers, etc: To open those parks means that there must be people working at those parks. Additionally, those are relatively high-risk activities, which could require emergency workers to be directed over to help those people should something go wrong. Multiple people require emergency help in our area monthly during normal times. Imagine if people who just want to get out of the house and decide to go hiking without knowing what they're doing.

It's really not as crazy to say those parks should stay closed if you think about it that way. Again, this isn't about us. This is about the essential workers and who we're putting at risk by us trying to go about our way.

[Sheilbh]

I agree with that. I think it's opening public space for limited reasons, exactly because of what you say.

Go running, go walking, go hiking but stay well within your capability and always socially distance in the area. This isn't a time to take up a new outdoor hobby, but use it as a space for the sort of routine exercise you're capable of for your own mental wellbeing. Plus, obviously, follow the Countryside Code.

[mongers]

I agree with that. I think it's opening public space for limited reasons, exactly because of what you say.

Go running, go walking, go hiking but stay well within your capability and always socially distance in the area. This isn't a time to take up a new outdoor hobby, but use it as a space for the sort of routine exercise you're capable of for your own mental wellbeing. Plus, obviously, follow the Countryside Code.

Wise words indeed.