Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[celedhring]

Wow, the initial leak seems to have been wrong and the national average is actually lower than that... 5%.



Some interesting tidbits:

- Prevalence in children is much lower. 1.1% children ages 0-1, 2.2% ages 2-5, 3% ages 6-9 - a theory is that they might have been less exposed (particularly in the case of infants)
- Other age groups don't show particular deviations from the average. 
- Neither do genders.
- Surprisingly essential workers haven't deviated either - 5.3%

This is data from 45,000 subjects (every subject tested twice). Subjects have been chosen to make up a statistic sample of the overall Spanish population. Again, this is preliminary data and there's still two more waves to come.

They also have loads of symptoms data... I suppose they'll release a proper info dump after the press conference. If I'm understanding well, loss of sense of smell seems to be the most prevalent symptom.

EDIT: people that tested positive and don't remember experiencing any symptom associated with COVID: 26%

[Iormlund]

To keep things in perspective (using US numbers). Approximate dead by cause of death in 2020:

Heart Disease: 183,986
Cancer: 170,247
Covid-19: 83,644

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/282929
(for heart disease and cancer I just used 2017 and used that rate for 2020)

Comparing those figures instantly destroys any credibility your argument might otherwise have. The reason you have 83k instead of say 3 million dead of COVID is simply that:
a) It's a brand new virus (in our species). It simply hasn't had the time to spread out far enough yet.
b) We've put previously unheard of efforts into containment.

How we deal with this shitty hand in the least dramatic way possible is up for debate, but trying to convince people that's not that big a deal at this point only makes you look like a loon.

[alfred russel]

You should read the article - the impact depends very much on how well the infection has been contained.  So, for example, opening schools in the US will be very harmful, and not so much on other countries that have had better outcomes.  ie you can't draw a conclusion from the experience in Denmark, Iceland and Sweden to places that have been markedly worse.

How do you think the US outcome have been markedly worse than Sweden's?

[DGuller]

To keep things in perspective (using US numbers). Approximate dead by cause of death in 2020:

Heart Disease: 183,986
Cancer: 170,247
Covid-19: 83,644

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/282929
(for heart disease and cancer I just used 2017 and used that rate for 2020)

That is an incredibly shitting perspective, not the one anything should be kept in.  Not only are Covid-19 deaths not annualized, but they're also held down very significantly by preventative measures.

[alfred russel]

Comparing those figures instantly destroys any credibility your argument might otherwise have. The reason you have 83k instead of say 3 million dead of COVID is simply that:
a) It's a brand new virus (in our species). It simply hasn't had the time to spread out far enough yet.
b) We've put previously unheard of efforts into containment.

How we deal with this shitty hand in the least dramatic way possible is up for debate, but trying to convince people that's not that big a deal at this point only makes you look like a loon.

I AM NOT TRYING TO CONVINCE ANYONE IT IS NOT A BIG DEAL! WHAT THE FUCK!

Also, where do you come up with 3 million? The numbers previously discussed were something like 1.6-2.1 million dead without countermeasures, and 100k-240k with full countermeasures. Unless the former estimates have been dramatically raised and I missed it, I think 3 million by mid march is greatly exaggerated.

[Valmy]

I AM NOT TRYING TO CONVINCE ANYONE IT IS NOT A BIG DEAL! WHAT THE FUCK!

Generally when presenting evidence to convince somebody of something it is best to first state what conclusion you wish us to reach by posting the evidence, otherwise people will reach their own conclusions as to what you are trying to convince them of.

[The Brain]

I AM NOT TRYING TO CONVINCE ANYONE IT IS NOT A BIG DEAL! WHAT THE FUCK!

Ah, but they are convinced that you are. Good luck convincing them otherwise!

[alfred russel]

To keep things in perspective (using US numbers). Approximate dead by cause of death in 2020:

Heart Disease: 183,986
Cancer: 170,247
Covid-19: 83,644

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/282929
(for heart disease and cancer I just used 2017 and used that rate for 2020)

That is an incredibly shitting perspective, not the one anything should be kept in.  Not only are Covid-19 deaths not annualized, but they're also held down very significantly by preventative measures.

The annual heart disease deaths are 647,457, and the cancer deaths are 599,108. If you want to annualize the Covid-19 deaths, cool, but it seems better to deal with hard numbers.

This was posted in reply to Tamas, who said "It is just hard to stomach that it caused such havoc with only one tenth of the population catching it so far."

I assume he was talking about the direct effects of the virus, and his stomach was not turning because of the havoc caused by preventative measures.

[DGuller]

I AM NOT TRYING TO CONVINCE ANYONE IT IS NOT A BIG DEAL! WHAT THE FUCK!

Ah, but they are convinced that you are. Good luck convincing them otherwise!

To be fair, while it is true most of the times that people are ascribing arguments to Dorsey that he's nowhere near making, in this particular case it was a reasonable conclusions to draw, as Dorsey provided none of his own.  When someone presents numbers to keep things in context or perspective, unless stated otherwise the point is diminish the importance of what is being kept in perspective.

[PDH]

Wait, which Dorsey?  You Dorsey or Alfred Dorsey?

[alfred russel]

I AM NOT TRYING TO CONVINCE ANYONE IT IS NOT A BIG DEAL! WHAT THE FUCK!

Generally when presenting evidence to convince somebody of something it is best to first state what conclusion you wish us to reach by posting the evidence, otherwise people will reach their own conclusions as to what you are trying to convince them of.

I posted all this all months ago. When I saw where this was going and that my workplace was going to shut down, I thought, "this sucks, but I'll make the best of a bad situation and spend the spring climbing season camping out at a cool climbing area and working remotely."

Then for dumb reasons--my opinion of the real reason--"No one can have any fun, this is serious."--the outdoor areas got shut down and I got a stay at home order. Half of the outdoor areas in North Georgia and Alabama are still shut down, despite tattoo and massage shops and bowling alleys reopening weeks ago.

I revolted against this because I said the risks weren't as bad as a lot of you jokers were saying, and that this would disproportionately impact urban areas anyway, there was minimal risk to younger people, and the excessive rules were going to lead to people disregarding everything.

Many of you strongly disagreed with me, Fate took me on with a theoretical position of authority (BB said he has become one of our most valuable posters)...and now the data is coming in and he was way off. The projected fatality that people like fate posted when telling me I was wrong has definitely not happened. Tim and Meri have been laughably off base.

Basically I'm in a phenomenally foul mood and hate just about everything. I set a bunch of goals for the year and they are all shot. It was completely arbitrary to shut down low risk outdoor activities, but I hope it made you guys feel better. I think the bulk of you fell for a media induced panic, and continue to do so. That is not to say that there is not a problem--a 1% fatality rate is serious, but it is not nearly 4%. If any single one of us dies this year, it probably won't be from coronavirus - but it could be!

[Grey Fox]

Basically I'm in a phenomenally foul mood and hate just about everything. I set a bunch of goals for the year and they are all shot. It was completely arbitrary to shut down low risk outdoor activities, but I hope it made you guys feel better. I think the bulk of you fell for a media induced panic, and continue to do so. That is not to say that there is not a problem--a 1% fatality rate is serious, but it is not nearly 4%. If any single one of us dies this year, it probably won't be from coronavirus - but it could be!

It wasn't arbitrary. We shut everything down without thinking about diminishing returns.

Corona took my dreams away too. I wanted to have my 2nd bathroom back before summer. 

[Barrister]

Many of you strongly disagreed with me, Fate took me on with a theoretical position of authority (BB said he has become one of our most valuable posters)...and now the data is coming in and he was way off. The projected fatality that people like fate posted when telling me I was wrong has definitely not happened. Tim and Meri have been laughably off base.

Basically I'm in a phenomenally foul mood and hate just about everything. I set a bunch of goals for the year and they are all shot. It was completely arbitrary to shut down low risk outdoor activities, but I hope it made you guys feel better. I think the bulk of you fell for a media induced panic, and continue to do so. That is not to say that there is not a problem--a 1% fatality rate is serious, but it is not nearly 4%. If any single one of us dies this year, it probably won't be from coronavirus - but it could be!

I remembered saying something nice about Fate, but was fairly sure I didn't call him one of our most valuable posters, so I searched it out:

Do you remember when Fate was the biggest fucking troll we had?

And now he consistently gives good, solid, informed posts?

I'm so sorry you can't go climbing.  But don't you think we're all going through stuff like that?  I can't play hockey anymore, which was the one fucking thing in my life that I got to do just for me, not for my kids, my job, or my wife.  And now it's gone - and unlike your outdoor climbing which is probably going to open up soon, hockey seems very unlikely to any time soon.

Look, this is a brand new virus.  No one had ever seen anything like it before.  We've been feeling our way through this from day one.  Even if closing climbing grounds was ultimately the wrong call, we didn't know what the fuck to do back in March.

[crazy canuck]

The reason we can't get a vaccine for HIV is that the human body doesn't recognize HIV as an infection, thus the immune system doesn't respond to HIV. .

I think you are missing the point.  The claim is that with sufficient resources vaccines are developed.  HIV is a very good example of significant resources being invested with no successful vaccine being developed.  In other words vaccines are not guaranteed if sufficient resources are invested.

We haven't ever really needed a human coronavirus vaccine before.  The couple of strains that regularly circulate amongst humans aren't particularly dangerous.  Work was put forward on SARS, but then stopped once the disease was finished.

No.  The research to find a SARS and MERS vaccine continued and has been completely unsuccessful.  A lab at UBC continued the work - the same lab that helped detects SARS back in the day.  Although if there had been more funding there might have been more success world wide.

I hadn't heard of RSV.  It's a disease that almost everyone gets within their first 2-3 years of life, is almost always harmless, but can potentially be dangerous to older adults.  There has been work on a vaccine, but I suspect it hasn't had a lot of resources put towards it

There are a lot of other viruses you have not heard of.  Just because you have not heard of it, and don't really understand its impact, you have assumed it has received little in research resources.  In fact there have been hundreds of millions of dollars invested in trying to find a vaccine.  The Gates foundation is a major funder.  It kills 10s of thousands of children around the world every year - not to mention older people with compromised respiratory systems.

[alfred russel]

I remembered saying something nice about Fate, but was fairly sure I didn't call him one of our most valuable posters, so I searched it out:

I stand corrected.