Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Barrister]

They've been pretty overwhelmed in NYC for a while.

I'm not in NYC in any event, but they aren't. See them dismantling temporary hospital space and sailing the hospital ship back to Virginia.

Hospitals are not just about beds, it's also about doctors and nurses.  The doctors and nurses were definitely overwhelmed, and I wouldn't be surprised if that seriously affected the mortality numbers.

It depends where you go.  Certainly I've been told that in Edmonton hospitals are empty.

But of course they're empty because of all the restrictions put in place.  If we just open everything up there's no reason to think Covid-19 won't just spike all over again.

[alfred russel]

Hospitals are not just about beds, it's also about doctors and nurses.  The doctors and nurses were definitely overwhelmed, and I wouldn't be surprised if that seriously affected the mortality numbers.

I posted this, and then deleted it because I thought it would get a negative response. I'm not trying to be difficult on this point...but I'm genuinely curious...

How much can functioning hospitals actually help? It seems the treatment is fever control and if it gets bad enough oxygen followed by a ventilator. The former two don't require hospitalization and most people on ventilators are dying anyway. The other treatments for COVID 19 are speculative and unproven.

I'd guess most of the benefit is from monitoring and treating preexisting conditions, ensuring there aren't co-infections, ensuring proper nutrition...etc...but if all hospitals refused to admit covid19 patients, would mortality increase 100% or more?

[alfred russel]

BB, I vigorously object to your willingness to confine people to their homes because you assess the risk for them to leave as excessive.

But let me put it another way. The German government projected that 70% of their population will be infected before this is over. Lets run with that. Out of a group of 10 of us, that means 7 will be infected. One of us volunteers to be among the 7. Will you really forbid this, knowing that:

-it increases the risk for the other 9,
-the volunteer has a risk of death of perhaps 1/500, while others in the group may be an order of magnitude higher, so it actually increases the projected death total of the full population,
-for many people who are high risk of dying after infection, they are put at increased risk of infection by the nature of their risk...for example, a dialysis patient has to regularly leave home for treatment.
-dragging the process out to get to the 7 is causing severe social and economic strain, and accelerating the process will reduce this.

[DGuller]

Hospitals are not just about beds, it's also about doctors and nurses.  The doctors and nurses were definitely overwhelmed, and I wouldn't be surprised if that seriously affected the mortality numbers.

I posted this, and then deleted it because I thought it would get a negative response. I'm not trying to be difficult on this point...but I'm genuinely curious...

How much can functioning hospitals actually help? It seems the treatment is fever control and if it gets bad enough oxygen followed by a ventilator. The former two don't require hospitalization and most people on ventilators are dying anyway. The other treatments for COVID 19 are speculative and unproven.

I'd guess most of the benefit is from monitoring and treating preexisting conditions, ensuring there aren't co-infections, ensuring proper nutrition...etc...but if all hospitals refused to admit covid19 patients, would mortality increase 100% or more?

Obviously it's very hard to tell, and it involves a lot of assumptions.  Looking at NYC data, 1 in 200 New Yorkers were hospitalized for COVID, and 1 in 600 died (confirmed, not including probable).  So, 1/3 of those hospitalized died.  I guess that gives us an upper bound of 200% increase in deaths if everyone were asked to tough out their hypoxia or blood clots at home.  Of course, that assumes that those hospitalized were better off being hospitalized rather than avoiding hospitals like the plague, which with 1/3 death rate may be a bit of a shaky assumption.

[alfred russel]

Obviously it's very hard to tell, and it involves a lot of assumptions.  Looking at NYC data, 1 in 200 New Yorkers were hospitalized for COVID, and 1 in 600 died (confirmed, not including probable).  So, 1/3 of those hospitalized died.  I guess that gives us an upper bound of 200% increase in deaths if everyone were asked to tough out their hypoxia or blood clots at home.  Of course, that assumes that those hospitalized were better off being hospitalized rather than avoiding hospitals like the plague, which with 1/3 death rate may be a bit of a shaky assumption.

I bet that a lot of the deaths were outside of hospitals. A lot of old people have no interest going on ventilators.

[The Brain]

1620 Swedes have been put in intensive care, and 2941 have died.

[DGuller]

Obviously it's very hard to tell, and it involves a lot of assumptions.  Looking at NYC data, 1 in 200 New Yorkers were hospitalized for COVID, and 1 in 600 died (confirmed, not including probable).  So, 1/3 of those hospitalized died.  I guess that gives us an upper bound of 200% increase in deaths if everyone were asked to tough out their hypoxia or blood clots at home.  Of course, that assumes that those hospitalized were better off being hospitalized rather than avoiding hospitals like the plague, which with 1/3 death rate may be a bit of a shaky assumption.

I bet that a lot of the deaths were outside of hospitals. A lot of old people have no interest going on ventilators.

I think out-of-hospital deaths figure is about 50% of in-hospital death figures.  So actually that should bring down my upper bound estimate to 133% increase in deaths if everyone with COVID were turned away.  That's actually a pretty shocking figure. 

EDIT:  Actually, I'm thinking of probable COVID deaths to confirmed COVID deaths.  I'm assuming that every confirmed COVID death occurred at a hospital.

[The Minsky Moment]

You guys told me that when this first started...but the hospitals aren't overwhelmed and never have been.

The hospitals were overwhelmed in New York but a combination of resource concentration and drastic restrictions on movements took the city back from the brink.  Absent those measures things would have gone beyond the brink.

[Admiral Yi]

One thing nice about the federal system is different states can run different experiments.

[viper37]

BB, I vigorously object to your willingness to confine people to their homes because you assess the risk for them to leave as excessive.

But let me put it another way. The German government projected that 70% of their population will be infected before this is over. Lets run with that. Out of a group of 10 of us, that means 7 will be infected. One of us volunteers to be among the 7. Will you really forbid this, knowing that:

-it increases the risk for the other 9,
-the volunteer has a risk of death of perhaps 1/500, while others in the group may be an order of magnitude higher, so it actually increases the projected death total of the full population,
-for many people who are high risk of dying after infection, they are put at increased risk of infection by the nature of their risk...for example, a dialysis patient has to regularly leave home for treatment.
-dragging the process out to get to the 7 is causing severe social and economic strain, and accelerating the process will reduce this.

is there a difference between 1000 cases in 1 day and 1000 in 1 month to you?

[viper37]

I apologize if this has been posted before, but one of those Russian doctor who "jumped" from a windows had previously posted a video saying they lacked PPEs in their hospitals. 

Shortly before his unfortunate accident, he published another video retracting his statement:
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/video/news/see-video-doctor-filmed-before-he-fell-from-window/vi-BB13GKLm

[11B4V]

waz tragic inzident.

[The Minsky Moment]

One thing nice about the federal system is different states can run different experiments.

That's all nice except one when state's experiment crosses state lines and infects another state's people.

[mongers]

There seems to be something wrong with this, what does anyone else think?

Employers / Post Job
Volunteer COVID 19 Tester
Boots
Bournemouth
Full-time, Part-time, Contract, Volunteer
Please be aware that this is a voluntary unpaid role

What are we doing?

Boots has a strong and trusted heritage in supporting the Healthcare of the Nation and in this time of need we are stepping forward alongside other partners to work with the Government to resource testing stations across the country to test for COVID 19. The primary objective is to test essential workers and allow those who test negative to return to work confident in the knowledge they are not positive for Coronavirus.

What is the context?

The global impact of COVID-19 has been profound, and the public health threat it represents is the most serious threat we have seen in a respiratory virus since the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic (Spanish Flu).

What will this mean to me?

You will be able to use your skills to make more of a difference than ever before.

You can play a crucial role in maximising our capacity as a country to fight this outbreak both on a national and local level.

Why aren't the NHS doing this?

Screening is currently taking place however the volumes required to combat the virus are significant and it is clear more support is required for testing. Boots along with other partners have been asked to support in a variety of ways to drive the countries efforts on testing.

The Role

We are seeking to recruit volunteers to work as part of a team of test operatives nationally undertaking COVID 19 swab testing in locations across the UK. These volunteers will work alongside both Boots teams and other partners/employees in the project with each site have a designated site manager.

Applicants must be in general good health and not classified as in any of the COVID High risk groups therefore:
Must not have a long-term condition
Must not be pregnant
Must not have a weakened immune system through medical conditions or therapy
Must not be over 70

In addition, applicants must consider the following: -
Ability to physically stand for several hours
Willingness to work outside (weather protection will be provided)
Mobility as will need to be able to reach into a vehicle to take swabs of both throat and nasal passages at potentially awkward angles.
Risk status of family members in the same household.
Must ensure short nails and no acrylics or false nails
Long hair to be tied back
Full training will be provided
Full Personal Protective Equipment will be supplied in line with NHS standards.
Ability to support at least 16 hours per week with hours from 7am until 8.15pm to cover a working pattern over 7 days a week with rest breaks.
Staff facilities including refreshments provided.

First Aid Support and facilities onsite

Please be aware that this is a voluntary unpaid role

[Iormlund]

Washington State shut down schools on March 13, NYC on March 15.  I don't think the different experience is because of a few days.

In such a high-density environment as NYC, adopting measures two days earlier could have meant half the cases though. Such seems to be the nature of this beast.

Though that's more talking about general distancing. We still don't know how schools in particular affect transmission rate.