Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[celedhring]

And in terms of what the behavioural scientists are doing, their latest work is about possible negative behaviours (which I think are a real risk) if anti-body testing becomes available for individuals:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/882726/29-pre-empting-possible-negative-behavioural-responses-covid-19-antibody-testing-13042020.pdf

Although this article only mentions it in passing, I think if we moved to a antibody "passport" type system where people with Covid antibodies are allowed out, I expect you'd see a lot of "bug chasing" behaviour by otherwise healthy younger people deliberately seeking out infection in order to get that passport.

Yep. I think it's a big risk - I'm not convinced by the whole immunity passport idea.

There's another potential hazard if employers use it to filter out non-immunized job candidates. The whole idea generates a host of perverse incentives imho - plus it's not like antibody testing is bulletproof atm.

[Razgovory]

Implement policies? Why would we do that? It's going away very soon!
Time to disband the task force, stop testing, and go back to normal!
https://twitter.com/WhiteHouseCEA/status/1257680258364555264?

To better visualize observed data, we also continually update a curve-fitting exercise to summarize COVID-19's observed trajectory. Particularly with irregular data, curve fitting can improve data visualization. As shown, IHME's mortality curves have matched the data fairly well.

Is that a sharpie?

[Syt]

Meanwhile, in the Dickensian working world that is the United States

[Valmy]

Well to be fair wearing a mask doesn't protect the employees it protects the customers (well...and the employees from each other) so I guess that eatery wants to get its patrons sick? Nice customer service there.

[Barrister]

It's crazy how wearing a facemask during a global pandemic has become some kind of political statement.

[PDH]

We're so screwed

[Valmy]

It's crazy how wearing a facemask during a global pandemic has become some kind of political statement.

Everything is a damn political statement. The fanatics want every damn thing to be a pledge of loyalty to their ideology. But Americans have always loved joining religious cults, so I guess now we are lining up to join secular ones.

[Maladict]

Government just presented the road map:

May 11:
The message will switch from 'stay at home as much as possible' to 'stay at home if you have symptoms', but the 1.5 metre rule will remain and people are encouraged to work at home if possible. Experiments with allowing visits to nursing homes will also start up, involving one home in each of the 25 local health board areas. Two weeks later, visits will be increased if the experiment is successful. Hair salons, beauticians and nail bars and the like can open again on condition they work by appointment only and as long as they make check with clients in advance that they have no symptoms. Face masks are not compulsory but chairs must be 1.5 metres from each other. The over-18s can resume outdoor sports which do not involve physical contact, such as tennis and golf, can resume but competitions are not allowed. Groups of up to 10 can take part in outdoor sports together as long as there is no contact. Libraries can reopen, as long as they bring in measures to enforce the 1.5 metre rule. As announced earlier, primary schools and daycare centres will reopen. Schools must divide classes in half and the government recommends pupils attend on alternate days rather than half days in order to reduce pressure on public transport and outside space.

June 1:
Public transport will start running normal services again. Travellers must wear a 'non-medical' face mask and a maximum of 40% of seats may be occupied. People who don't wear a mask can be fined. The size of the fine still has to be worked out. Secondary schools will reopen and the exact details still have to be worked out. Cafe and restaurant terraces can reopen as long as everyone sits at a table and there is 1.5 metres between tables. Restaurants, concert halls theatres and cinemas can reopen to a maximum of 30 guests, seated 1.5 metres apart and by reservation only. Museums can reopen on condition tickets are sold in advance and the 1.5 metre rule is maintained.

July 1
Campsites and holiday parks can reopen completely, including communal washrooms and toilet facilities. Restaurants, theatres and cinemas can scale up to a maximum of 100 people, seated 1.5 metres apart and by reservation only. Churches, mosques, crematoria and congress centres can also open for up to 100 people.

July 15
Practical exams and lessons to resume at trade schools

September 1
The ban on festivals and large organised events is due to be lifted. Saunas, sex clubs, casinos and sports clubs can reopen and contact sports will also be permitted. The government is looking into the option of reopening sports clubs and gyms earlier, if solutions can be found to specific problems.

Foreign travel:
Travel abroad is currently restricted to essential travel only and any easing here will depend on other countries as well, Rutte said. All the measures depend on a continued reduction in the infection rate and each measure will be given final approval a week before the deadline

[Valmy]

No sex clubs until September 1st 

[FunkMonk]

No sex clubs until September 1st 

Tyranny!!!11

[alfred russel]

Because people are shitty at assessing risk.  What's the death rate for 20-somethings who catch Covid: 1 in 200?  1 in 1000?  It would still be really, really shitty if we suddenly lost  one in one thousand of our 20-somethings.  In particular if they're doing it just so they can go out to the beach or the bar.

So society gets to make the risk assessment for them?

It doesn't necessarily seem irrational to me: if someone hates life in quarantine, but enjoys life outside of quarantine, a 1/500 risk to get out of spending several months in quarantine may be completely rational. Even someone with 60 years of life expectancy remaining only has 720 months left to live.

[alfred russel]

How do you figure?
Whether you're in a freak car accident or you drive like an idiot and mess up, the result is the same for the health system.
The entire point of the reaction to corona, the lockdown, etc... is nothing to do with individuals, its about protecting the health system so it can protect us all.

Cool, and agree if the health system was being overwhelmed. It isn't being overwhelmed right now.

[Sheilbh]

So society gets to make the risk assessment for them?

Yes - that's how quarantine (or indeed society generally) works. We don't all get to make our own choices. Society makes all sorts of risk assessments for us and we then have to follow them

[Barrister]

Because people are shitty at assessing risk.  What's the death rate for 20-somethings who catch Covid: 1 in 200?  1 in 1000?  It would still be really, really shitty if we suddenly lost  one in one thousand of our 20-somethings.  In particular if they're doing it just so they can go out to the beach or the bar.

So society gets to make the risk assessment for them?

It doesn't necessarily seem irrational to me: if someone hates life in quarantine, but enjoys life outside of quarantine, a 1/500 risk to get out of spending several months in quarantine may be completely rational. Even someone with 60 years of life expectancy remaining only has 720 months left to live.

Umm, yes?  Of course?

We make all kinds of risk assessments for people.  That's why we mandate seatbelts, regulate food and drugs, have speeding limits, etc.

[Josquius]

How do you figure?
Whether you're in a freak car accident or you drive like an idiot and mess up, the result is the same for the health system.
The entire point of the reaction to corona, the lockdown, etc... is nothing to do with individuals, its about protecting the health system so it can protect us all.

Cool, and agree if the health system was being overwhelmed. It isn't being overwhelmed right now.

Because people are broadly obeying the rules and not spreading the disease everywhere.
That could quickly change if we get lots of people deciding getting infected would be a good thing.

So society gets to make the risk assessment for them?

It doesn't necessarily seem irrational to me: if someone hates life in quarantine, but enjoys life outside of quarantine, a 1/500 risk to get out of spending several months in quarantine may be completely rational. Even someone with 60 years of life expectancy remaining only has 720 months left to live.

Its not about you.