Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Zoupa]

Dorsey, the area under the curve is definitely not the same, sorry.

Dorsey,  there is a direct correlation between number of ICU beds occupied and deaths.

Dorsey, the whole point of the most restrictive approach is to spread out the cases so as not to overwhelm the system. See: Italy.

Dorsey, this has been pointed out and explained a gazillion times, in the media, in scientific papers, on this forum and in this very thread.

What, exactly, do you not understand?

Your chart (copied again below) is not the way things work. If the cases ever go to near zero, it is because there is a vaccine, the disease just went away on its own (such as in the summer), or we reached enough immunity in the population to get there even without a vaccine.

The point being--the procedures that are "flattening the curve" won't get us to zero any faster than doing nothing, and may in fact slow the process down.

I don't understand why you won't acknowledge that.

You can get to zero cases very fast. You can nuke any town/city where somebody tests positive, then nuke the ashes to make sure. That would get you to zero, yes?

Because getting to zero cases fast is a super important thing, not, you know, saving lives.

[jimmy olsen]

So when is America's death toll going to pass our losses in Vietnam? Tuesday?

[celedhring]

Spain to begin opening up by areas once they reach a transmission rate of 2 daily cases per 100,000 (plus some other requisites like free hospital beds and testing capability). At current trends some areas might qualify in 2 weeks.

[mongers]

So when is America's death toll going to pass our losses in Vietnam? Tuesday?

Tim, I thought about that question a few days ago, but I think a better landmark might be, god forbid when virus deaths of amongst Vietnam veterans surpasses the 55,000 killed in the war.

And ironically the Vietnamese seem to be doing a better job of containing it than the US and some other western countries.

[mongers]

Breaking news:

"No evidence" that recovered COVID-19 patients cannot be reinfected: WHO

The World Health Organization (WHO) said on Saturday that there was currently "no evidence" that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second coronavirus infection.

Full article here:

http://feeds.reuters.com/~r/Reuters/worldNews/~3/3OHQWbRlXa0/no-evidence-that-recovered-covid-19-patients-cannot-be-reinfected-who-idUSKCN2270FB

[Tamas]

Breaking news:

"No evidence" that recovered COVID-19 patients cannot be reinfected: WHO

The World Health Organization (WHO) said on Saturday that there was currently "no evidence" that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second coronavirus infection.

Full article here:

http://feeds.reuters.com/~r/Reuters/worldNews/~3/3OHQWbRlXa0/no-evidence-that-recovered-covid-19-patients-cannot-be-reinfected-who-idUSKCN2270FB

Yes but if you have antibodies that gotta' make it much milder doesn't it.

[mongers]

Breaking news:

"No evidence" that recovered COVID-19 patients cannot be reinfected: WHO

The World Health Organization (WHO) said on Saturday that there was currently "no evidence" that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second coronavirus infection.

Full article here:

http://feeds.reuters.com/~r/Reuters/worldNews/~3/3OHQWbRlXa0/no-evidence-that-recovered-covid-19-patients-cannot-be-reinfected-who-idUSKCN2270FB

Yes but if you have antibodies that gotta' make it much milder doesn't it.

Tamas, let's just assume that's the case and run with it; it'll send the RO rate right back to where it was, as these people will be as infectious as previously, if not slightly better transmitters as someone won't now take the disease as seriously as they did first time.   

[Barrister]

Breaking news:

"No evidence" that recovered COVID-19 patients cannot be reinfected: WHO

The World Health Organization (WHO) said on Saturday that there was currently "no evidence" that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second coronavirus infection.

Full article here:

http://feeds.reuters.com/~r/Reuters/worldNews/~3/3OHQWbRlXa0/no-evidence-that-recovered-covid-19-patients-cannot-be-reinfected-who-idUSKCN2270FB

Isn't that incredibly bad from a vaccine perspective?

[Sheilbh]

Yeah - if it's accurate. That article notes that the WHO does point to all studies showing an antibody it's just not clear how strong. I think it's more a political than a scientific statement - I think they're trying to discourage countries, like Chile, from using "immunity passports" because the evidence isn't clear or strong enough for that type of policy at this point.

Edit: Although I would note that for the last week or so the UK Chief Scientific Advisor has sounded far more positive about developing treatments than developing a vaccine.

[Maladict]

There hasn't been a confirmed case of double infection yet. How long until we can reasonably expect that to happen if it's possible?

[mongers]

English hospitals recorded 711 deaths in 24 hour.

So UK total hospital deaths are above 20,000, others still largely uncounted.

Apparently the reason why Belgium's death toll is so grim, is because they've been counting all care home deaths, community' deaths and deaths likely to have been caused by the virus. I guess they figured that was a more useful figure to inform government policy rather than concentrating on a 'headline' figure.

[celedhring]

There hasn't been a confirmed case of double infection yet. How long until we can reasonably expect that to happen if it's possible?

I think the doubts are more regarding how long immunity will it last (i.e. if the virus will mutate seasonally). For all I've read this virus doesn't mutate that quickly but it's still early.

[Sheilbh]

So UK total hospital deaths are above 20,000, others still largely uncounted.

Apparently the reason why Belgium's death toll is so grim, is because they've been counting all care home deaths, community' deaths and deaths likely to have been caused by the virus. I guess they figured that was a more useful figure to inform government policy rather than concentrating on a 'headline' figure.

Care home deaths are being counted - but there's a lag of about 10-14 days, so they are counted up to week 14 (w/e 10 April) and on Tuesday we'll get the update for week 15 up to 17 April. Partly, I think the issue is because it's a largely unregulated sector filled with small businesses. There are tens of thousands of care home companies often with one or two properties at most. This is an issue in all of the UK's nations (and something some other countries seem to struggle with) so Scottish numbers actually take slightly longer to gather. It's easy to get figures from hospitals and hospital trusts within the NHS because of how it's set up and it's still more useful having that number on a daily basis than not, plus the update every week of excess mortality (the key figure) and deaths in care homes and the community.

It's just a reflection of the long-term failure to reform and think about social care because it's difficult and it'll be expensive. I think it's really striking that the two times a political party went into an election on a manifesto that included social care reform (and inheritance tax increases) they did badly - whether it was Brown's Labour Party in 2010 or May's Tories in 2017. It should be clear now that we can't just muddle on any more and, as a sector, it needs reform and probably a single regulator (beyond care quality) who can actually administer the care sector. But it's a wider issue - even when I was in hospital I was in the ICU ward and there was at least one or two elderly patients who no longer needed to be in hospital but couldn't be moved because they didn't have family who could take them and there was no space in care homes. Personally I've always thought it's very suited to a social insurance model.

And Chris Whitty has said several times in the briefings he's attended that the key figure to look at is total excess mortality.

Incidentally speaking to someone who's working in the NHS - they've never been so quiet. They're a senior radiologist so haven't been re-deployed (interestingly for those sort of areas the juniors are able to be re-deployed but the seniors tend to be so specialised they're a bit de-skilled in general practice). They've been doing lots of chest scans for covid-19, but all the out-patient stuff such as cancer screening etc has been cancelled. They said it felt very close in London about 2-3 weeks ago but generally the sense was the NHS is now on top of it and has capactiy to deal with cases which is good. Interestingly they work in two hospitals and sort of commented on how even if there's a feeling they are on top of it generally, it is really striking how important the hospital leadership team is because one is handling and managing all of this crisis far better than the other. And they commented that they actually find the whole Thursday night clap, the free coffees, the discounts for people with NHS badges really moving and get quite emotional about it, which is nice to know it might help morale of people who are doing stuff I couldn't imagine.

[Threviel]

English hospitals recorded 711 deaths in 24 hour.

So UK total hospital deaths are above 20,000, others still largely uncounted.

Apparently the reason why Belgium's death toll is so grim, is because they've been counting all care home deaths, community' deaths and deaths likely to have been caused by the virus. I guess they figured that was a more useful figure to inform government policy rather than concentrating on a 'headline' figure.

So, like Brainy said earlier, two countries, Sweden and Belgium, seems to make a reliable count at this time.

[Grey Fox]

Yes, it's the same here. Quebec's death tool is extremely accurate.