Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[celedhring]

Wow, much higher than I expected. Weighted result for all the state is 13.9%

[celedhring]

Napkin math time.

11,000 deaths in NYC. 8.3 million population at 21% = 1.75 million infected. 0.6% lethality.

[Tamas]

Wow, much higher than I expected. Weighted result for all the state is 13.9%

What do these columns mean?

[Sheilbh]

Yeah, that's far higher than I expected.

Interestingly the person who's been appointed on testing coordination just mentioned antibody tests and was saying they're not good enough yet for individual advice, but they can be used for population survey purposes.

[celedhring]

Yeah, that's far higher than I expected.

Interestingly the person who's been appointed on testing coordination just mentioned antibody tests and was saying they're not good enough yet for individual advice, but they can be used for population survey purposes.

Yeah, the sensitivity is still far too low for individual use, but if it's a known number you can easily adjust for that when making a survey.

[DGuller]

My estimate was pretty spot on for NY that matters.

[Maladict]

Wow, much higher than I expected. Weighted result for all the state is 13.9%

What do these columns mean?

Is that representative for the whole population? Or people having symptoms? That 43% figure for NYC is awfully high for a general population test.

[DGuller]

Is that representative for the whole population? Or people having symptoms? That 43% figure for NYC is awfully high for a general population test.

The first column is the population weight of the sample, the second column is the positive test percentage.  NYC is at 21.2%.  The sample is biased to some extent, the people were randomly chosen among those who were shopping for groceries and things like that.  I imagine that this sample over-represents those who are more likely to be infected.

[Barrister]

Wow, much higher than I expected. Weighted result for all the state is 13.9%

What do these columns mean?

Is that representative for the whole population? Or people having symptoms? That 43% figure for NYC is awfully high for a general population test.

The middle column simply refers to what percentage of the total number of tests performed come from each region (the numbers add up to 100).  So of all the tests they did, 43% were from NYC.  That's all.

[Sheilbh]

The first column is the population weight of the sample, the second column is the positive test percentage.  NYC is at 21.2%.  The sample is biased to some extent, the people were randomly chosen among those who were shopping for groceries and things like that.  I imagine that this sample over-represents those who are more likely to be infected.

I'd assume the opposite. Aren't people who are infected (at least with symptoms) more likely to be strictly self-isolating/less likely to be out?

[crazy canuck]

Start of today's briefing entirely focused on testing and contact tracing - which I think are pre-requisites for getting out of lockdown - I am slightly reassured they're talking about this rather than talking about which bits of lockdown will be lifted first. If this stuff isn't in place, I don't see how we'll be able to avoid going back into lockdowns. Hopefully they'll actually get it in place and working.....But.....

Probably has a lot to do with the questions the new Labour leader asked in PMQ that got so much attention on social media.

[Maladict]

Is that representative for the whole population? Or people having symptoms? That 43% figure for NYC is awfully high for a general population test.

The first column is the population weight of the sample, the second column is the positive test percentage.  NYC is at 21.2%.  The sample is biased to some extent, the people were randomly chosen among those who were shopping for groceries and things like that.  I imagine that this sample over-represents those who are more likely to be infected.

Oh, right. Duh.
Still much higher than I thought.

[Iormlund]

Napkin math time.

11,000 deaths in NYC. 8.3 million population at 21% = 1.75 million infected. 0.6% lethality.

Need to let the illness run its course through those infected first though.

[Zoupa]

The death age profile is certainly the best thing about this virus.

How so exactly?

[Zoupa]

Is the death age profile not generally reported in other countries? Would certainly explain some earlier comments.

It's been reported plenty. What do you mean?