Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[mongers]

The big question I still have is around why I don't think we engaged at all, as far as I can see with South Korea or Taiwan. The Taiwanese representative in the UK actually said they tried to engage but didn't really hear back

Edit: As it is I think we'll spend our time after this arguing about "herd immunity" and why the British went a very different way and wasn't like other European countries in their approach. Which I think is the wrong thing we need to look at - but I think it does probably avoid querying the NHS which is at least part of the difference I think with Germany.

Shelf that's an interesting chart, though it can't capture everything. Like Italy enacting strict quarantines of certain towns and regions, something most other EU countries haven't done, has that been helpful or largely window dressing.

You're absolutely right to 'bang on' about not learning from or seeking advice from Asian countries.  Why I don't know, maybe colonial hang overs?
Especially as very early on, we know just how contagious this was, as evidenced by the information about speed of transmission happening in Singapore.

[Sheilbh]

You're absolutely right to 'bang on' about not learning from or seeking advice from Asian countries.  Why I don't know, maybe colonial hang overs?
Especially as very early on, we know just how contagious this was, as evidenced by the information about speed of transmission happening in Singapore.

And even if they wasn't that they were dealing very quickly with this, they've had more recent experience of pandmics like SARS. I think there was a healthy dose of arrogance and racism in it.

[Oexmelin]

The CDC publishes guidelines for Americans to build their own hospitals.

https://www.theonion.com/cdc-releases-instructions-for-all-americans-to-make-the-1842773032/amp?fbclid=IwAR0WyvcquTslpWM_OIF-HiMZsayGV2BG68ZHvQmy3lu7qZcBwEpnki7uxVo

[Iormlund]

If we had weeks of forward warning neither Italy nor Spain really had (not even France), yet we end up following their trajectory, doesn't that mean we messed up a bit?

But this was actually the planned trajectory for the UK. To ride the wave of the virus as close to NHS capacity as possible. If anyone has followed projections is the UK.

Sure but I mean we didn't quite have weeks of forward warning - we were a couple of weeks after Italy, but Spain reached their third death three days before we did, France was six days before us (and three days before Spain). Everything changed very quickly in the first couple of weeks of March.

I started my quarantine-preparedness shopping in the last week of February. If I could see what was going to happen surely governments should have as well. It doesn't take a genius to plot a graph in Excel and see what the future holds.

[Sheilbh]

I started my quarantine-preparedness shopping in the last week of February. If I could see what was going to happen surely governments should have as well. It doesn't take a genius to plot a graph in Excel and see what the future holds.

Yeah, absolutely. I think the UK government's big failings have been around PPE and testing - both of which were a lack of preparation. On the other hand the thing it seems to have done well is boosting capacity in the NHS, which they started early - I was having outpatient appointments moved and canceled in February.

The ohter failure so far is possibly the strategy (this is in common with most of Europe) and not speaking to South Korea and Taiwan. Relatedly I think the comms - until recently - have not been good enough. I find that bit particularly surprising because surely if there's one thing this government (filled with Vote Leave veterans) should be good at it's a campaign and comms

I just don't think we were ever that special/unique - there was a different emphasis in the comms and a slightly different policy on schools, but otherwise everyone was going for flattening the curve.

[Zoupa]

If we had weeks of forward warning neither Italy nor Spain really had (not even France), yet we end up following their trajectory, doesn't that mean we messed up a bit?

Sure but I mean we didn't quite have weeks of forward warning - we were a couple of weeks after Italy, but Spain reached their third death three days before we did, France was six days before us (and three days before Spain). Everything changed very quickly in the first couple of weeks of March.

But I struggle to see how the UK messed up much if it did roughly the same things as most other countries in roughly the same time period. What I think is interesting is why do we have more deaths without ever breaching surge capacity and what did Germany do that worked better? Because those two do seem to be different - and I suspect they won't get examined much because everyone loves the NHS especially now, but I think our healthcare system is part of it.

And the other big question for me is why we didn't speak to South Korean and Taiwanese experts to ask what they did?

Brits, English especially, are generally unhealthier than mediterranean counterparts.

[Zoupa]

It seems like in Jersey City the mandate came in to limit the number of people in the stores, because I see all the stores now with lines of people in front of it.  I get the thought process, but I have a suspicion it may prove to be counterproductive.  What this measure winds up doing is extending the amount of time people spend outside.  In theory they should spend that increased amount of time outside at proper social distance, as opposed to a shorter amount of time at occasionally improper social distance, but I think it hurts more than it helps.  My solution was to drive to another town where a thing didn't exist, and wear a mask.

Stay in your lane dude.

[viper37]

The big question I still have is around why I don't think we engaged at all, as far as I can see with South Korea or Taiwan. The Taiwanese representative in the UK actually said they tried to engage but didn't really hear back

Edit: As it is I think we'll spend our time after this arguing about "herd immunity" and why the British went a very different way and wasn't like other European countries in their approach. Which I think is the wrong thing we need to look at - but I think it does probably avoid querying the NHS which is at least part of the difference I think with Germany.

Shelf that's an interesting chart, though it can't capture everything. Like Italy enacting strict quarantines of certain towns and regions, something most other EU countries haven't done, has that been helpful or largely window dressing.

from what I've read here from our italian residents, the strict quarantine was announced in advance and people rushed to flee the infected zones, bringing the virus with them everywhere.

[DGuller]

It seems like in Jersey City the mandate came in to limit the number of people in the stores, because I see all the stores now with lines of people in front of it.  I get the thought process, but I have a suspicion it may prove to be counterproductive.  What this measure winds up doing is extending the amount of time people spend outside.  In theory they should spend that increased amount of time outside at proper social distance, as opposed to a shorter amount of time at occasionally improper social distance, but I think it hurts more than it helps.  My solution was to drive to another town where a thing didn't exist, and wear a mask.

Stay in your lane dude.

Okay, give me some arguments from your lane, apart from bleeding eyes?  In my lane, it's not apparent that having long lines congregating outside of the store for a long time is a safer outcome, on an exposure to unsafe social distance measure.

[Iormlund]

Relatedly I think the comms - until recently - have not been good enough. I find that bit particularly surprising because surely if there's one thing this government (filled with Vote Leave veterans) should be good at it's a campaign and comms

Heh. If you think communication has been a problem in the UK I can't imagine what you would think about the way the Spanish government has managed things.

To this day their only focus is deflecting responsibility on someone else. Regional governments, WHO, scientists, citizens, anyone but them.

[Legbiter]

I'd been wondering when the comet was going to turn up...

There has been a lot of talk in recent days on social media regarding the approach of a new comet that could possibly evolve into a spectacular sight in the coming weeks ahead.

https://www.space.com/bright-comet-atlas-visibility-april-2020.html

[viper37]

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/skorea-reports-recovered-coronavirus-patients-testing-positive-again/ar-BB12sLB4?li=AAggNb9

I hope these are just residuals of the virus...

[jimmy olsen]

34.5k new cases and 2071 dead in the US.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1248827743485267968

[Syt]

Austria ran a representative test among 1500 people which concluded that likely ca. 28,500 people in total would be infected with Covid-19, about twice the official number, and ca. 0.33% of the total population.

While the scientists have 95% confidence in the number, the error of margin is 10,200 to 67,400 total infected.

Meanwhile, in the Tyrolean skiing areas of Paznaun and St. Anton it's estimated that close to 20% of the population is infected. Both areas remain quarantined.

[MadImmortalMan]

The number of active cell phone contracts has never seen a month-to-month decline in mainland China. Strangely, in the last quarter, they've declined by ~21 million or so.