Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[bogh]

Sweden's death number is really grim. Why is the government there letting you all die?

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

Yesterdays numbers, but still. Double that of Denmark, half that of the Netherlands. One sixth of Spain. About half of Switzerlands, that was lauded above.

So yeah, not looking good, but grim?

Watch the lead indicator, not the lag. Sweden has four times the number of admitted patients and people in intensive care compared to Denmark. The gap will widen in the next week.

[Threviel]

For comparison, New York state is about 20 million, today they reported more deaths than Sweden's total tally.

[Threviel]

Sweden's death number is really grim. Why is the government there letting you all die?

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

Yesterdays numbers, but still. Double that of Denmark, half that of the Netherlands. One sixth of Spain. About half of Switzerlands, that was lauded above.

So yeah, not looking good, but grim?

Watch the lead indicator, not the lag. Sweden has four times the number of admitted patients and people in intensive care compared to Denmark. The gap will widen in the next week.

I can't find numbers for Denmark, but Sweden has 469 corona patients in intensive care.

Edit: Found some statistics: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Serious cases in Denmark about half that of Sweden, maps well with deaths data.

[Iormlund]

Absolute numbers don't mean much when making comparisons. Daily death increase adjusted for timing is a much better metric (still not perfect by any means).

[Legbiter]

Watch the lead indicator, not the lag. Sweden has four times the number of admitted patients and people in intensive care compared to Denmark. The gap will widen in the next week.

Yeah general transmission seems widespread and ongoing. Have control measures been taken to keep people away from congregating during Easter? Lots of people go skiing or have mountain cabins.

[Threviel]

Absolute numbers don't mean much when making comparisons. Daily death increase adjusted for timing is a much better metric (still not perfect by any means).

I believe that good number will come in 4-5 years, when a proper statistical analysis has been done. All my comparisons above are per capita and very rough.

[bogh]

Sweden's death number is really grim. Why is the government there letting you all die?

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

Yesterdays numbers, but still. Double that of Denmark, half that of the Netherlands. One sixth of Spain. About half of Switzerlands, that was lauded above.

So yeah, not looking good, but grim?

Watch the lead indicator, not the lag. Sweden has four times the number of admitted patients and people in intensive care compared to Denmark. The gap will widen in the next week.

I can't find numbers for Denmark, but Sweden has 469 corona patients in intensive care.

Edit: Found some statistics: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Serious cases in Denmark about half that of Sweden, maps well with deaths data.

Denmark has 457 admitted to the hospital and 127 in intensive care.

[Iormlund]

I believe that good number will come in 4-5 years, when a proper statistical analysis has been done. All my comparisons above are per capita and very rough.

Per capita comparisons will only make sense when a significant percentage or the population has been infected. That's still not the case.

[Threviel]

Yes, and about half the population of Sweden.

As I said, rough calculations:

127*2 is about 300
680/2 is about 300.

Say three times the number of ICU cases then if it makes you happy.

Still not a grim picture for Sweden. Sure, it's not especially good like Denmark, but not grim either.

[Threviel]

I believe that good number will come in 4-5 years, when a proper statistical analysis has been done. All my comparisons above are per capita and very rough.

Per capita comparisons will only make sense when a significant percentage or the population has been infected. That's still not the case.

Yes. But I want to talk about it now. We can do this again in 2025 if you want.

[Sheilbh]

I think we are in for some bad figures; that dithering over the lockdown (I say this with hindsight) was a bad mistake.

Yes I think you're right.

And it's odd as now people have been told that they must do, I think the vast majority of people are both staying in and social distancing. I think many are seeing it as a positive thing they can do, playing their part and saving health resources.

Just a lack of decisive leadership from the govt. on several occasions that each cost a handful of days grace.

I think you're right - I would say the communications could have been clearer in that first week (which were still complied with by half to two-thirds of people, but now it's 95%). But I still think it was probably right to try and get people to voluntarily socially distance, rather than immediately leaping to an unprecedented restriction of individuals rights and expansion of police powers. That may be indecisive, but I do think there's a value in asking people to do this without having to use the coercive power of the state.

Watch the lead indicator, not the lag. Sweden has four times the number of admitted patients and people in intensive care compared to Denmark. The gap will widen in the next week.

Yeah. Looking at this, just comparing today with wednesday last (so not perfect) does seem to indicate we'll peak in the next 7-10 days as projected.

Last Wednesday there were 1,600 hospital admissions and about 300 ICU admissions.
Today's figures were 850 hospital admissions and 100 ICU admissions.

[Legbiter]

What's the least affected region of Sweden? Gotland or Norrbotten? Here it's the Westfjords, same as in the Black Death. 

[Barrister]

Here's a fun tidbit that relates to Cpt. Crozier and the USS Roosevelt:

When the real Teddy Roosevelt was leading troops in Cuba in 1898, his soldiers had an outbreak of yellow fever and malaria.  He wrote a letter to his superiors asking for those troops to be brought back to the US - but also slipped a copy of that letter to an AP reporter covering the war.

The young Col. Roosevelt was not relieved of his command.

https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2020/april/uss-theodore-roosevelt-commanding-officer-followed-example-colonel

[Eddie Teach]

For comparison, New York state is about 20 million, today they reported more deaths than Sweden's total tally.

Damning with faint praise...

[Legbiter]

Singapore is going on full lockdown again, just got hit with a second wave.