Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Syt]

Government will evaluate this weekend whether to slowly open non-essential shops again soon. They plan to announce possible scenarios for a slow ramp up next week.

[The Minsky Moment]

Trump White House told 3M to stop exporting Ventilators & masks to Canada.

3M is obviously not happy & say it can lead to retaliation.

With allies like this...

Hate to tell you this, but if Trump found out that nuking Canada would add 2 points to his ratings, you'd all be radioactive slag tomorrow.

[The Minsky Moment]

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
17h
Massive amounts of medical supplies, even hospitals and medical centers, are being delivered directly to states and hospitals by the Federal Government. Some have insatiable appetites & are never satisfied (politics?). Remember, we are a backup for them. The complainers should...

....have been stocked up and ready long before this crisis hit. Other states are thrilled with the job we have done. Sending many Ventilators today, with thousands being built. 51 large cargo planes coming in with medical supplies. Prefer sending directly to hospitals.

There are many problems with this tweet but the biggest is the first thing "17h".  Needed to be "1 month"

[merithyn]

Trump White House told 3M to stop exporting Ventilators & masks to Canada.

3M is obviously not happy & say it can lead to retaliation.

With allies like this...

I remember the good old days of lend-lease programs.

Honestly the current U.S. adminstration should rot in all of Dante's hells

Few of us Americans here disagree with you. 

[Maximus]

Remember the Captain of the aircraft carrier who sent a letter begging for help as covid-19 spread through his ship?

Yup - going to be relieved of his command.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/military/navy-expected-relieve-captain-who-raised-alarm-about-covid-19-n1175351

Dude cared more about his sailors than his career though - that's gotta count for something.

That's the Navy.

What did he get relieved for? Being concerned about his people on board or making it public knowledge?

For embarrassing his superiors.

[HisMajestyBOB]

Trump White House told 3M to stop exporting Ventilators & masks to Canada.

3M is obviously not happy & say it can lead to retaliation.

With allies like this...

I remember the good old days of lend-lease programs.

Honestly the current U.S. adminstration should rot in all of Dante's hells

Don't worry, even if they're voted out they will face no repercussions for any of their actions and will land in cushy positions, and then return to join the Trump Jr. / Kushner administration in 2024.

[alfred russel]

Its interesting that you compare the costs to the actual number killed so far, which of course is much lower because of those costs.

It seems a little dishonest. WHy compare the cost against the "benefit" when the reverse of the benefit you are comparing is exactly the outcome of the cost? Why aren't you comparing the cost against the numbers killed had no such cost been incurred?

Because even with everything happening, the focus is on the sick/dying from covid19 rather than the other effects...which imo are far more significant.

India has locked down for 21 days. I can't even imagine the brutal toll that is going to have. Even in normal times the country has unimaginable poverty and food insecurity, with the poor getting by day to day. There is not nearly the safety net as there is here.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/31/world/coronavirus-live-news-updates.html

But if you want to focus on the cost/benefit in the US, the article above estimates 2.2 million deaths from Covid 19 if the US did nothing. Absolutely no one has argued for zero response, but lets go with that number. With a population of 330 million, that is not far off from the estimated of % of population killed by Spanish Flu even if we do absolutely nothing (0.67% for covid 19, 0.48-0.64% for the spanish flu, per wikipedia). The Spanish Flu was also far worse, as it killed the young rather than the elderly.

Our response to covid 19 dwarfs the response to Spanish Flu. The estimated deaths with current measures of 100-240k are actually quite a bit less than deaths due to medical errors in the US--which claim 250-440k.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/22/medical-errors-third-leading-cause-of-death-in-america.html

Over 2.8 million people die each year in the US. Even if we did nothing - which again no one is advocating - the deaths would be 2.2 million. That is less than a doubling of mortality.

A stay at home order was issued in Virginia until June 10. If this is going to be the reality--effectively home detention for a significant period of time--I think most people would trade that modest risk to lead a more normal life--even before considering all the other factors mentioned (unemployment, bankruptcy, loss of retirement wealth).

[alfred russel]

There will be no service economy until the outbreak stops. If you stopped the lockdowns tomorrow people wouldn't go back to restaurants or start traveling again.

You should know that isn't true. It would be diminished and some people would stay home, but if you really thought that was true there is no point to ordering the service economy closed or to stop traveling.

[alfred russel]

Now this is what a police state looks like:

Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte has warned that anyone breaking the coronavirus lockdown on the island of Luzon may be shot by the military or the police, as the country fights to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus.

Apparently he was undeterred by the threat of a sharply worded missive from QC Sumption.

My county just issued an ordinance that anyone caught breaking the coronavirus lockdown may be fined up to $1,000 and/or jailed for up to 12 months.

I guess this is just the world today. So long as the authorities don't shoot you, you aren't in a police state.

Or rather, you apparently ARE a police state if the police have the emergency power to take emergency measures?

How do you differentiate then between this kind of "police state" and the other kind?

Berkut, the point is that MM was saying:

Hey look, Philippines is a police state--the police are authorized to shoot you if you go get a haircut there.
My point was, where I live, if I get a haircut, the only difference is that the police are only authorized to fine me and jail me up to 12 months.

The local official ordering this commented that if this seems like an overreaction but lives are saved, he would take pride in that. That is cool. Georgia could save 1,500 or so lives a year by just shutting down the roads.

[Sheilbh]

Unless the decisions of your boss are putting the lives of your people at risk. You have a duty to raise that. If the superiors are indifferent, incompetent, shallow, self-absorbed dilettantes - such as the White House - then I'm not sure normal procedures/escalation will work. So maybe all you're left with is going public?

In case of the military, I disagree.

Why is that? I suppose in my head it's no different than commanders going public about insufficient/deficient equipment - which I seem to remember happening a few times here during Iraq. It's awkward, but their duty isn't to save their superiors from embarrassment.

Also some optimistic data from Engalnd - early doors, obviously and there's a big push that everyone stay at home this weekend despite nice weather. But promising if it holds up:



Edit: Also UK is running three clinical trials through NHS:
Principle (higher risk patients in primary care - https://www.phctrials.ox.ac.uk/principle-trial)
Recovery (in hospital trial - https://www.recoverytrial.net/)
Remap-Cap (critically ill patient trial - https://www.remapcap.org/)

I understand there are other observational studies and priority studies but these three are really being pushed and they're hoping to recruit as many participants as possible.

Edit: Positive from Jonathan Van Tam on risk of breaching surge capacity - nowhere near that point yet.

[Sheilbh]

Trump White House told 3M to stop exporting Ventilators & masks to Canada.

3M is obviously not happy & say it can lead to retaliation.

With allies like this...

Apparently US confiscated 200,000 masks (FFP2 and FFP3) at airport in Bangkok that had been ordered for Berlin police. Produced by 3M (American company) in China and en route to Germany. City of Berlin has said it's "modern piracy" and asking for help from German government.

Add this to another reason I suspect complex supply chains may be unwound.

[PRC]

America First!

[Grey Fox]

Trump White House told 3M to stop exporting Ventilators & masks to Canada.

3M is obviously not happy & say it can lead to retaliation.

With allies like this...

Apparently US confiscated 200,000 masks (FFP2 and FFP3) at airport in Bangkok that had been ordered for Berlin police. Produced by 3M (American company) in China and en route to Germany. City of Berlin has said it's "modern piracy" and asking for help from German government.

Add this to another reason I suspect complex supply chains may be unwound.

Hopefully Canada will learn to stop letting our National chains be bought by American companies. Especially since our regional chains are all dying fast.

[Oexmelin]

A real estate magnate who organized a big wedding in one of the hotels he owned Montreal a couple of weeks ago and then complained that everyone was making a mountain of of a molehill as employees complained they were forced to work for the reception. (Viper reported on the story earlyer). "There were only 180 people present".

His brother is now fighting for his life on an ICU bed. 

[grumbler]

Remember the Captain of the aircraft carrier who sent a letter begging for help as covid-19 spread through his ship?

Yup - going to be relieved of his command.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/military/navy-expected-relieve-captain-who-raised-alarm-about-covid-19-n1175351

Dude cared more about his sailors than his career though - that's gotta count for something.

That's the Navy.

What did he get relieved for? Being concerned about his people on board or making it public knowledge?

He got relieved because the SecNav is a total putz who doesn't understand how the Navy works, and because the captain wasn't satisfied by the vague assurances of his boss that things would get done. 

Yes, he did go over his boss's head to let the chain of command know that he had a serious problem, but that isn't the kind of thing for which you preemptively relieve a CO in the middle of a crisis.  You relieve him like that if you have lost confidence in his ability to resolve the crisis.  The SecNav announced that he was personally firing the CO, in spite of the fact that, as he noted, the CO was a fine man and a great CO.  He didn't announce any actual reasons for relieving him.

It is the kind of thing the Trumpeters do.  Like Trump personally intervening, as Commander-in-Chief, to make sure that some junior officers in the JAG Corps didn't get a trivial medal.  No reasons for doing these things except to be seen as doing things.