Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[garbon]

Yeah I get that. But let's say it's kids going to pick out their Easter eggs and that household has coronavirus. Surely it's better for those six people to go once for a time limited period, rather than six individual trips over the course of the day infecting different groups of people in the shop at different times?

Jesus Christ, seriously?  It's the goddamn Plague man.  Whatever fucking egg dad comes back with is the one you get.

Exactly.

Indeed.

[Josquius]

I think it does not bode well that after a mere week of the lockdown there is already a societal pushback against the police, that's also gaining traction. This ridiculous middle class rebellion against tyranny will be wielded as a flag by the mob in a month when they have had enough of no parties and football matches.

I don't think the mob for football matches will be middle class. I don't think the fear of unrest in southern Italy is that middle managers working from home are going to take to the streets.

I was posting that the rules were too harsh and too arbitrary to be sustainable a week ago and getting a ton of backlash--you said I was being an "edgelord." Yet here we are.

It is one thing to tell people to lock down for a week or two. But if you want to have this sustained for more than a month the rules need to be balanced against avoiding disrupting normal life to the extent possible. How a walk in the lake district will spread covid 19 i have no clue.

Have to say I do expect the unrest to be worse with poorer people.
This lockdown is altogether very different if you're working from home in your nice home with a large garden and plenty of places to take walks nearby or if you're cooped up with your family in a 1 bedroom flat with nothing to do and nought but grotty streets around you

[alfred russel]

I realize that Europe may be doing a better job of locking down its cities than the US and Atlanta in particular, but here are some pictures from Atlanta's pedestrian trail. Contrast the crowds here with the absence of anyone in the parks I posted earlier.

[Richard Hakluyt]

I've been taking long urban walks with my youngest; the streets are quieter than the parks, though one can easily maintain a safe distance in both. I realised earlier today that I have not used any mode of transport in March apart from my legs.


The pictures of Atlanta may have been taken with a telephoto lens; but it certainly looks like the people there are way too close together.

[Sheilbh]

Have to say I do expect the unrest to be worse with poorer people.
This lockdown is altogether very different if you're working from home in your nice home with a large garden and plenty of places to take walks nearby or if you're cooped up with your family in a 1 bedroom flat with nothing to do and nought but grotty streets around you

Hugely.

I'd love to know more about the footage of unrest in China which is interesting. But in Italy it's not a surprise that the stuff we've seen have been in the south - I think mainly Sicily - where you have a higher proportion of people working in the grey economy, who can't work from home (and Italy haven't announced as much support economically as other countries) and the focus so far has been on raiding supermarkets.

This isn't necessarily a disease that disproportionately affects the poor or the rich (like, say, cholera). But I think the experience of this lockdown is going to be hugely varied based on your income and wealth.

I've been taking long urban walks with my youngest; the streets are quieter than the parks, though one can easily maintain a safe distance in both. I realised earlier today that I have not used any mode of transport in March apart from my legs.

I still have to use the bus if going to the pharmacy to pick up prescriptions etc because crutches. Otherwise I've walked in parks and streets and yeah - it's easy to keep 2m distance generally (except for runners who will not deviate ) although I have realised that, as a country, we have no idea how long a metre is

[Richard Hakluyt]

2 metres = 1 Richard Osman

[Fate]

Furloughs are now starting to happen at US hospitals and clinics for non-front line staff. For radiology our imaging volumes are down by 50% versus same time period last year. Similarly since all elective surgeries have been cancelled and outpatient clinics are ghost towns, everyone from pediatricians to neurosurgeons are going to be out of work. Mortality for everything that's not COVID19 may be increased when your oncologist or family practice doc is also collecting unemployment insurance.

Although there's so much overspending and over-consumption in US medicine at baseline maybe we're just decreasing the amount of useless medical care. 

[Gups]

I am sorry Gups et all, but read up on the emergency powers the Hungarian government granted itself on the back of all this, and compare that to scenic walks in the Lake District.

No need to apologise, I was posting for info and context, not in support one way or the other. I'm actually on the fence on this debate more or less.

[Gups]

What is your stance Gups?  What is your opinion on the great national freedom to drive to exercise debate?

Yeah, as above. On the fence a bit.

We've gone from having a massive horse race meeting with 250,000 people getting pissed two weeks ago to people being tracked with drones and named and shamed for taking a walk with nobody else in sight. It's quite a step change.

I don't think there is mass hysteria (difficult when your self-isolating) but there's definitely a degree of virtue signalling and shaming going on. I also agree with Sumption that the rule of law is really important and the police can't just take powers on to themselves.

OTOH, this is a crisis of epic proportions and I don't mind if we go over the top a bit on enforcement if that saves lives and gets us back to normal quicker.

[alfred russel]

Have to say I do expect the unrest to be worse with poorer people.
This lockdown is altogether very different if you're working from home in your nice home with a large garden and plenty of places to take walks nearby or if you're cooped up with your family in a 1 bedroom flat with nothing to do and nought but grotty streets around you

Plus it is the hourly people that are going to get crushed by layoffs, and the people in the underground economy that won't get unemployment benefits or other types of relief. Those are going to be disproportionately working class.

For all the talk I've been hearing about protecting rural communities, I bet when it comes to Georgia the people that get disproportionately affected--both economically and in terms of health--are inner city minorities. Cities are going to be places where spread is much easier, working classes can't work from home as easily, they tend to be in poorer health more generally, and their housing forces people closer together. Plus while cases are still low in Georgia, the Atlanta mayor has said our ICU beds are at capacity already. I'm not sure the urban medical situation is going to be that much better.

[Admiral Yi]

For the record, based on that transcript  Gups posted, I think Sumption is a nutter.

[Tamas]

About 400 new deaths in the UK in 24 hours including a 19 years old with no apparent health issues.

[Zanza]

For the record, based on that transcript  Gups posted, I think Sumption is a nutter.

I think he exaggerates, but voices valid concerns.

[Gups]

For the record, based on that transcript  Gups posted, I think Sumption is a nutter.

I think he exaggerates, but voices valid concerns.

Ditto. His main fault is his failure to acknowledge that this is a temporary response to a (presumably) temporary crisis. I'll cut him some slack because this is a radio interview rather than a considered opinion.

His recent book deploring the judicial activism is well-argued and moderate in tone.

[The Minsky Moment]

For the record, based on that transcript  Gups posted, I think Sumption is a nutter.

He's a lawyer stating his case with some very sharply spun pitches.