Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[celedhring]

Smart.

Germans could soon be issued "immunity certificates" that would allow them to leave the country's coronavirus lockdown earlier than the rest of the population if they test positive for antibodies to the virus.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-germany-covid-19-immunity-certificates-testing-social-distancing-lockdown-2020-3?r=US&IR=T

Couldn't that lead to a perverse incentive of young people trying to get infected?

Yeah, that's my thought too. This should probably be done by areas rather than people.

[alfred russel]

Smart.

Germans could soon be issued "immunity certificates" that would allow them to leave the country's coronavirus lockdown earlier than the rest of the population if they test positive for antibodies to the virus.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-germany-covid-19-immunity-certificates-testing-social-distancing-lockdown-2020-3?r=US&IR=T

Couldn't that lead to a perverse incentive of young people trying to get infected?

Yeah, that's my thought too. This should probably be done by areas rather than people.

But then won't people just move to the areas that are certified as "clear"?

[crazy canuck]

Supposedly Fauci is projecting 100k-200k dead in the US.

https://apnews.com/64ac08d62c3621f2b888785e02c7f6b1

Assuming that is the range, and all western countries are roughly in line, the political implications will be interesting. The CDC estimates that flu deaths in a bad year are just over 60k.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

On the one hand you will have people arguing that the entire response has been disproportionate, and also people arguing that the government responses saved us from a catastrophe. Though contradictory, I expect Trump would make both arguments and his base would eat it up.

There will be other ways to criticize the government--the response was not as effective as it could have been, and more costly than needed as we weren't prepared. I guess these would be the Democrats' answer.

That was Fauci's best case for the US if everyone obeys social distancing.  That isn't going to happen.  The other estimate of 1.6 to 2 million deaths in the US is more likely.

And don't generalize US results to the rest of the world.  Your nation has become the world leader for infections.

[celedhring]

Smart.

Germans could soon be issued "immunity certificates" that would allow them to leave the country's coronavirus lockdown earlier than the rest of the population if they test positive for antibodies to the virus.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-germany-covid-19-immunity-certificates-testing-social-distancing-lockdown-2020-3?r=US&IR=T

Couldn't that lead to a perverse incentive of young people trying to get infected?

Yeah, that's my thought too. This should probably be done by areas rather than people.

But then won't people just move to the areas that are certified as "clear"?

That's illegal under current quarantines in most places.

[crazy canuck]

And it would take a pretty stupid self centred idiot to willingly get infected given the risk of them dying and those around them dying.   But those people do exist.

[Sheilbh]

Smart.

Germans could soon be issued "immunity certificates" that would allow them to leave the country's coronavirus lockdown earlier than the rest of the population if they test positive for antibodies to the virus.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-germany-covid-19-immunity-certificates-testing-social-distancing-lockdown-2020-3?r=US&IR=T

Couldn't that lead to a perverse incentive of young people trying to get infected?

Yeah, that's my thought too. This should probably be done by areas rather than people.

Also presumably you're testing people so they can go back to work - but if they work in non-essential shops, or restaurants, cafes, cinemas, gyms etc wouldn't they need to re-open? But then how do you keep the partial lockdown going?

I would note that my understanding is this was a line by a virologist in Germany who is senior but is not "Germany" and has entered the Anglophone press as possibly an overinterpretation of that one line.

And it would take a pretty stupid self centred idiot to willingly get infected given the risk of them dying and those around them dying.   But those people do exist.

You can't pass it on if you come out of infection so I can see circumstances where you'd want it if you were otherwise low risk.

[crazy canuck]

Not sure you have grasped the sure stupidity of willingly becoming infected

[DGuller]

And don't generalize US results to the rest of the world.  Your nation has become the world leader for infections.

You need to take a chill pill already.

[alfred russel]

Smart.

Germans could soon be issued "immunity certificates" that would allow them to leave the country's coronavirus lockdown earlier than the rest of the population if they test positive for antibodies to the virus.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-germany-covid-19-immunity-certificates-testing-social-distancing-lockdown-2020-3?r=US&IR=T

Couldn't that lead to a perverse incentive of young people trying to get infected?

Yeah, that's my thought too. This should probably be done by areas rather than people.

But then won't people just move to the areas that are certified as "clear"?

That's illegal under current quarantines in most places.

How in the world would you track that though?

[Sheilbh]

UK new cases up by about 2,600. It's been bobbing aroud 2.4k-2.6k for the last four days so it's promising that it's not rising, though testing is limited and this will mainly be those in hospital we should expect some reduction in infections/onset because this is now about 2 weeks from when the government first advised social distancing (which seems to have had about 2/3s compliance).

A further 180 deaths (which is about an increase of about 15%), like infections this is a lagging indicator but we should be getting some sort of impact from the initial social distancing now - there's been a wider range of death figures between 180 and 260 over the last 4-5 days.

Not sure on the London figures yet.

Edit: But from local news reporting it doesn't seem like the NHS surge capacity was breached over the weekend which is the key at the moment.

[celedhring]

We all need to move to the BC Utopia.

[Iormlund]

Couldn't that lead to a perverse incentive of young people trying to get infected?

They don't control who gets tested, though.

[Barrister]

Smart.

Germans could soon be issued "immunity certificates" that would allow them to leave the country's coronavirus lockdown earlier than the rest of the population if they test positive for antibodies to the virus.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-germany-covid-19-immunity-certificates-testing-social-distancing-lockdown-2020-3?r=US&IR=T

Couldn't that lead to a perverse incentive of young people trying to get infected?

Yeah, that's my thought too. This should probably be done by areas rather than people.

But then won't people just move to the areas that are certified as "clear"?

I just read an article about a couple from Quebec who sold everything, and got on a plane to Old Crow, Yukon in order to escape Coronavirus.  Old Crow is an isolated, fly-in only community of 250 people north of the arctic circle.  There is of course no doctors in Old Crow, and certainly no ventilators.

They were met by community members, isolated overnight, and put on the next plane out in the morning.

So yes, people would flock to clear zones given the chance.

[mongers]

UK new cases up by about 2,600. It's been bobbing aroud 2.4k-2.6k for the last four days so it's promising that it's not rising, though testing is limited and this will mainly be those in hospital we should expect some reduction in infections/onset because this is now about 2 weeks from when the government first advised social distancing (which seems to have had about 2/3s compliance).

A further 180 deaths (which is about an increase of about 15%), like infections this is a lagging indicator but we should be getting some sort of impact from the initial social distancing now - there's been a wider range of death figures between 180 and 260 over the last 4-5 days.

Not sure on the London figures yet.

Edit: But from local news reporting it doesn't seem like the NHS surge capacity was breached over the weekend which is the key at the moment.

Shelf, did you see the item about National Statistics picking up the reporting job and the plan to move to wider death count, rather than current certified in hospital deaths.

[bogh]

So PM says the trend is good and that reopening will commence mid April unless we see a reversal.