Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[alfred russel]

And then you all are guaranteed to get COVID-19. Then 14% of you end up needing to be in the hospital yourself and 2% will require intubation.

Maybe there'd be a placed for antibody proven COVID-19 immune people to do that in a desperate situation. But there's no system to even see if healthcare workers are immune, let alone volunteers from the lay public. Hopefully we don't get to that point.

First, there isn't a guarantee to get covid 19. Second, that sounds to me like, if there are a shortage of ventilators, you would trade 100 people that go without ventilators that need them for 2 new patients down the road...seems like a quality tradeoff. Not to mention the 2% is likely high considering the factors previously discussed.

Yes, you are 100% going to get COVID-19 if you sit next to a very ill and highly contagous person using a bag valve mask for 24 hours a day 7 days a week. 10-15% of all Italian COVID-19 cases are healthcare workers and they're not even sitting next to a patient BVM'ing all day long.

Who is going to BVM for a mean of 14 days and up to 20+ days? It's not realistic. The best outcome in this situation is to triage current ventilators based on likelihood to leave the hospital alive and let those who don't meet that threshold to have the best natural death possible.

Stay home. Slow the spread.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/489987-cuomo-says-national-guard-may-be-trained-to-use-manual-bag-valves-if

It turns out Governor Cuomo thinks the idea has merit, and has ordered or is ordering 7,000 BVMs. He is talking about training the national guard to help.

You only need 336 man hours per patient if you figure a mean a 14 days...at 20 hours a week that is less than 9 people. Even if 2% of them need intubation, that is creating significant less demand than you are filling.

[Fate]

Half of people who get intubated die with COVID-19 with modern ventilators. If you're using BVMs that mortality rate is going to skyrocket because it's not nearly as effective at ventilating sick lungs. If Cuomo actually gets desparate enough to do that, I pity the poor national guard troops who are going to have to have the repeated trauma of their patient suffocating to death and thinking it's their own fault.

[mongers]

Where this virus isn't directly killing or afflicting people, it's still sundering the bonds between us, yesterday a good friend of mine died, multiple cancers not the virus, yet only one of his sons could be with him at the end, the other just couldn't get a flight in time.

His best friend took a real risk going to a crowded hospital to see him, as she has health vulnerabilities and her daughter is pregnant.
Most of his other friends, including me couldn't see him one last time.

And the funeral will in effect just be his sons, anyone else gathering would be too much of a risk and the UK's limit is ten people only anyway. I hope I've persuaded his best friend not to attend, which is kind of a sad thing to have to do.

The best we can hope for is some celebration of his life later in the year, maybe many months time.

[Monoriu]

This is the greatest global disaster since WWII.  Easily surpasses things like 9/11, the Gulf Wars, Chernobyl etc in terms of death toll and economic impact.  Everybody is affected. 

There will be a reckoning for China.  The west is just too busy right now on the immediate problems at hand.  The reason is very simple.  If there are no reforms, it is only a matter of time before it happens again.

Beijing's worst nightmare will be a global, unified anti-China coalition that threatens cutting off trade and investment ties unless there are meaningful changes. 

[crazy canuck]

https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1244119212701990913?s=21

Shows timeline of the US becoming most infected

[Admiral Yi]

Beijing's worst nightmare will be a global, unified anti-China coalition that threatens cutting off trade and investment ties unless there are meaningful changes.

Trade's not a problem, it's travel.

Besides closing wet markets, what do you think needs to be done?

[Monoriu]

Beijing's worst nightmare will be a global, unified anti-China coalition that threatens cutting off trade and investment ties unless there are meaningful changes.

Trade's not a problem, it's travel.

Besides closing wet markets, what do you think needs to be done?

It isn't wet markets.  It is the trade and consumption of wild animals.  This is the easy part because these are already outlawed by Beijing.  The only question is enforcement. 

The much more difficult part will be access to information by the outside world.  There will be demands for the outside world and international teams to go to China and verify some of the reports.  Beijing isn't totally against reporting figures to WHO.  But it will resist all attempts at verification, and it doesn't want to be seen as succumbing to outside pressure.

The absolute nightmare will be a demand to change its political system and related matters.  Free press, whistleblower protection, China's propaganda campaign in the west, the treatment of Taiwan and its membership in WHO, the Hong Kong question.  If the west chooses to press these matters, hell will break loose. 

[DGuller]

Beijing's worst nightmare will be a global, unified anti-China coalition that threatens cutting off trade and investment ties unless there are meaningful changes.

Trade's not a problem, it's travel.

Besides closing wet markets, what do you think needs to be done?

I think Mono means sanctions.

[Fate]

Does the Hong Kong press believe China's # of cases and deaths?

Republicans are out for blood. I'd be satisfied with a real ban on wild animal trade and ongoing verification.

I'd imagine critical medical supplies and pharmaceuticals are going to be onshored.

[Monoriu]

Does the Hong Kong press believe China's # of cases and deaths?

Republicans are out for blood. I'd be satisfied with a real ban on wild animal trade and ongoing verification.

No.  Nobody here believes those figures 

[Monoriu]

Beijing's worst nightmare will be a global, unified anti-China coalition that threatens cutting off trade and investment ties unless there are meaningful changes.

Trade's not a problem, it's travel.

Besides closing wet markets, what do you think needs to be done?

I think Mono means sanctions.

Yeah.  I think of South Africa pre-Mandela. 

[Fate]

Does the Hong Kong press believe China's # of cases and deaths?

Republicans are out for blood. I'd be satisfied with a real ban on wild animal trade and ongoing verification.

No.  Nobody here believes those figures 

Here in the states it's moreso a right-wing talking point so I've been hesitant to buy into it. The ones screaming loudest for Chinese blood are the same that want wars with Venezuela and Iran. Hopefully the truth comes out somehow but I guess it doesn't really matter now.

[viper37]

I'd be satisfied with a real ban on wild animal trade and ongoing verification.

that's what they promised after SRAS-2003.  That, and a new system to report directly to Beijing all new cases that could be possibly linked to a pandemic.  I don't think that worked pretty well on all count.

I'm not Republican, and I'll be out for blood too, at the end of this.

[Maladict]

Where this virus isn't directly killing or afflicting people, it's still sundering the bonds between us, yesterday a good friend of mine died, multiple cancers not the virus, yet only one of his sons could be with him at the end, the other just couldn't get a flight in time.

His best friend took a real risk going to a crowded hospital to see him, as she has health vulnerabilities and her daughter is pregnant.
Most of his other friends, including me couldn't see him one last time.

And the funeral will in effect just be his sons, anyone else gathering would be too much of a risk and the UK's limit is ten people only anyway. I hope I've persuaded his best friend not to attend, which is kind of a sad thing to have to do.

The best we can hope for is some celebration of his life later in the year, maybe many months time.

Sorry for your loss mongers

[Zanza]

There will be no political fallout from this for China: first the West will be busy to work through its own policy failings and its arrogance of not learning from East Asian experience and second when the world economy is trying to come back from this disaster, China as the world's biggest/second biggest economy will be needed and we still nedd Chinese consumers and suppliers.