Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[crazy canuck]

I also heard someone else say the US can expect to peak around the end of April.

Just to follow up on this the UK briefing that just happened did discuss a time line. They said "nobody's pretending that this will be over in a few weeks." And in 2-3 weeks we'll be able to see if the social distancing measures are working.

The Deputy Chief Medical Officer said the timeline might be:
- 3 weeks till review lockdown
- 2-3 months to review the curve
- 3-6 months of social distancing measures

But it could be longer. This is where I think the point of fatigue is really important, I think there's already some reports of people basically being sick of this in Singapore and Italy. I don't know how long is plausible, but the most optimistic here is they review the results from lockdown at the end of April, following that review maybe ease the lockdown in May if the curve is doing what you want and then start to ease social distancing in June. But that's the most optimistic timeline.

Yeah, downright Trumpist to suggest this will peak in a few weeks in the US. The US will some decline in the rate of increase by then due to some states now taking active measures but we won't know the US has peaked until the start coming down the curve. 

[Legbiter]

What I'm worried about is the availability of PPE's and pharmaceuticals in 3 weeks' time in our countries. Can our nations establish wartime production of these away from China? We're basically in a Paradox resource management game at this point.

[mongers]

What I'm worried about is the availability of PPE's and pharmaceuticals in 3 weeks' time in our countries. Can our nations establish wartime production of these away from China? We're basically in a Paradox resource management game at this point.

Also with the next two weeks New York City is likely to see a death toll greater than 9/11. 

[ulmont]

Your daily dose of optimism.

The body of a man identified as Thomas Schäfer, the finance minister of the German state of Hesse [includes Germany's financial capital of Frankfurt], was found on a high-speed train line[], police confirmed Saturday.
...
Investigators said an investigation on the scene confirmed the identity of the man as Schäfer and that the death was likely a suicide. Police did not immediately release further details of the case.
...
Schäfer had "considerable worries" over COVID-19

https://www.dw.com/en/german-state-finance-minister-thomas-sch%C3%A4fer-found-dead/a-52948976

[Crazy_Ivan80]

so, anyone heard anything more about the rumours that the death toll in China is actually a lot higher than what they're telling anyone?

[Barrister]

so, anyone heard anything more about the rumours that the death toll in China is actually a lot higher than what they're telling anyone?

Nothing more than rumours.

[Legbiter]

so, anyone heard anything more about the rumours that the death toll in China is actually a lot higher than what they're telling anyone?

Yeah, we're now seeing the virus on the ground in other countries and it's patently obvious that the Chinese numbers are a complete lie. We'll probably never know the true numbers.

[Iormlund]

The Chinese had a lot more resources than we do, though. We can build field hospitals, even makeshift equipment. But we can't magically conjure up 40 thousand doctors and nurses.

Well, the US might, but it seems too spread for that now.

[DGuller]

I wouldn't trust Chinese numbers, but at the same time, other Asian countries aren't looking out of line with China.  Maybe the good habits taught by the first SARS kept the virus within controllable parameters.

[Josquius]

Korea has had the most success and they did it with pretty strict mobile phone tracking regulations that would never pass in the west.
Which is understandable in a way. But shame they cannot be passed with a very specific 1 year time-limit or so. But then I guess that too would be controversial.

[Agelastus]

https://qz.com/1824020/social-distancing-slowing-not-only-covid-19-but-other-diseases-too/

Recent data clearly show the spread of Covid-19. On March 19, the share of Americans with temperatures indicating they had flu-like symptoms was about 4.9% when it typically would be expected to be about 4.0%. This was likely a result of the spread of Covid-19, according to Kinsa's researchers.

I wonder what the bias is in this (used by more younger people than old, or used by more parents than single people, for example) given the sample size ought to be quite useful.

Also looking at December last year it looks like flu season was getting off to a high start in the USA anyway, so how much above the "typical" would it have been anyway?

[merithyn]

Is it even possible to consider the  US a single entity for such tracking? It's even less accurate than saying where Europe's peak will be.

That's been kind of a frustration for me for a while. Canada and the US will have very different pockets and very different responses depending on the states/provinces. We're both simply too different and too varied in local governmental responses to be seen as single entities.

[Razgovory]

I just read a news story that some white nationalist was plotting to blow up a hospital in Kansas City FBI killed him earlier this week.

[DGuller]

As a stats person, one thing that frustrates me in all the numbers we're seeing is that both confirmed case numbers and death numbers are missing one crucial dimension:  time since first symptoms.  In actuarial terms, it's often much more useful to know the date when a claim was incurred, as opposed to the date when a claim was reported.

When you confirm an infection, it is very useful to know when the symptoms first started.  It makes a difference whether the infection is new, or whether the diagnosis is just catching up to what happened a week ago.  Likewise, with deaths, you want to know how long after the start of symptoms a death occurred.  That would also give a sense of where you are on the curve, and how effective the current measures are at changing the dynamic. 

Without that time since first symptoms dimension to the numbers, we're adding a huge lag to the interpretation, which can lead to wrong conclusions and wrong decisions being made.  Hopefully this lack of detail is just in the numbers presented to the public, and professionals have more dimensions to the figures they're analyzing.

[merithyn]

I just read a news story that some white nationalist was plotting to blow up a hospital in Kansas City FBI killed him earlier this week.

Yeah. He'd been plotting for months to bomb a synagogue or black church, then the virus came and he switched gears.