Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[alfred russel]

AFAIK we have so far had zero examples of countries were the virus have expanded to an even remotely substantial part of the population without putting major strains on their healthcare system.

If you really believe that to be the case, the "social distancing" methods should be abandoned and we should just take this on the chin, with the older parts of the population told to hunker down while the rest of us catch the virus.

Lets break this down:

-Take the German estimate that more than half the population will get the virus. Lets cut it to half.
-The population of Italy is over 60 million. Lets then say that 30 million Italians will get the virus before it is over.
-There have been just under 28,000 Italian cases. Lets say they are undercounting by a factor of about 10, and really 250,000 have had it. Lets also assume all those cases have been in the last week (to be more generous to the model) and that the Italian medical system can handle this number of cases but that is it (I think you would probably agree that it can't handle this number of cases).

So if we have to get to 30 million and our pace of acceptable infection is 250k a week, it will take us 120 weeks to stabilize so that we can all come out again. That is over 2 years. That isn't a realistic option.

[crazy canuck]

We just made the necessary moves to allow all lawyers and assistants to work from home and have virtual access to our network.  We will be continuing to pay all our staff as usual.

[Sheilbh]

Netherlands sounds similar to UK - he did say he can't think of anything like this in peacetime.

Apparently UK estimates are that we should be over the peak in 12-3 weeks. Which is slightly scary - I may go mad

[Fate]

AFAIK we have so far had zero examples of countries were the virus have expanded to an even remotely substantial part of the population without putting major strains on their healthcare system.

If you really believe that to be the case, the "social distancing" methods should be abandoned and we should just take this on the chin, with the older parts of the population told to hunker down while the rest of us catch the virus.

Lets break this down:

-Take the German estimate that more than half the population will get the virus. Lets cut it to half.
-The population of Italy is over 60 million. Lets then say that 30 million Italians will get the virus before it is over.
-There have been just under 28,000 Italian cases. Lets say they are undercounting by a factor of about 10, and really 250,000 have had it. Lets also assume all those cases have been in the last week (to be more generous to the model) and that the Italian medical system can handle this number of cases but that is it (I think you would probably agree that it can't handle this number of cases).

So if we have to get to 30 million and our pace of acceptable infection is 250k a week, it will take us 120 weeks to stabilize so that we can all come out again. That is over 2 years. That isn't a realistic option.

# of deaths can be massively decreased by spreading the infections over a period of 3 months rather than having everyone get it in 1 month and having your health system overwhelmed. See Philly vs St. Louis as an old school example of US social distancing. They didn't have antivirals or ventilators yet saved many lives.

[Oexmelin]

That WWI Victory parade in Philadelphia certainly didn't help

[Sheilbh]

That WWI Victory parade in Philadelphia certainly didn't help

Especially given that the Spanish flu had an unusually high mortality rate for young adults - like everyone taking part in the parade.

[alfred russel]

# of deaths can be massively decreased by spreading the infections over a period of 3 months rather than having everyone get it in 1 month and having your health system overwhelmed. See Philly vs St. Louis as an old school example of US social distancing. They didn't have antivirals or ventilators yet saved many lives.

You missed the point. There is a time limit to how long we can live like this before the ancillary pain exceeds the pain of the disease. How many workers are looking at a loss of livelihood right now? Fromtia is talking about making it on the next three months by eating beans and rice. Children aren't going to school which creates enormous problems both in terms of educating the next generation and for single mothers trying to support a family. Productivity is going to plummet. If you care at all about community fitness--including from a public health perspective--all the gyms are shutting down. Social separation is also going to lead to depression, loneliness, suicide, etc--I'm already going insane and it has been just a few days.

If this is really going to result in widespread infection, then we should seriously address:

a) what can our health system handle, and
b) if we keep the rate of infection low enough to avoid overloading the healthcare system, then can this be managed in a reasonable timeframe?

Because how I see it--people are blaming the Italian government for letting things get out of control and overloading the healthcare system, but the numbers infected are still absurdly low. If the Italian healthcare system is at all indicative of western healthcare systems, the answer to b) is very clear: "no".

[Tamas]

Johnson's approach/cowardice to not order closure of businesses might sound very British but only really helping the insurance companies:

Massive problem for restaurants, pubs, entertainment industries. Government says don't go, but has not enforced closure, meaning none of them can claim insurance.

One event organiser tells me: "If they don't enforce any closures then pretty much the whole arts will go bust."

[Caliga]

That WWI Victory parade in Philadelphia certainly didn't help

My great-great uncle died in Philly shortly before that parade.  Here's his obituary:

James T. Crossland, for many years an employee of the Eddystone Manufacturing Company and one of the borough's well-known citizens, will be buried tomorrow at 11 o'clock from his late residence, 204 Concord Avenue. Mr. Crossland, who was 28 years of age, passed away yesterday, the cause of death being typhoid pneumonia.
It was just about a week ago that Mr. Crossland first complained of feeling ill and with the development of fever and other symptoms of contagion, he was taken to the State Quarantine Station at Marcus Hook, where the end came following delirium. The deceased leaves a wife and two small children, Esther, three years old and Elva two years old. He was a member of the Eddystone Fire Co, which in respect to him, went into mourning as soon as it learned of his death; Manchester Unity I.O.O.F. and the Independent Order of Red Men.
The services will be held at the house, Rev. R. M. Howells, pastor ot the Eddystone Methodist Episcopal Church, officiating. Interment will be made at Chester Rural Cemetery.

So yeah, you don't need to be an old person to die from shit like this.  Obit is from October 25th, 1918.

[crazy canuck]

BC takes a different approach to US citizens- probably because of Washington state.  Basic message, please do not come to BC.

[Grey Fox]

I wonder how the not having widespread fever reducing medicine affected the Spanish flu death toll. Are there any studies on that subject?

[Zanza]

Germany will now implement similar measures as the other Europeans: close all non-essential retail businesses, close all religious buildings, close all sports ground and playgrounds, ban inner-German travel, ban all but the most private gatherings etc.

[crazy canuck]

All elective scheduled surgeries are canceled.  People in BC being asked to stay home.  No access to care homes except for essential visitors.  Pharmacists may renew prescriptions on their own discretion- no need for doctors note.

All steps anticipation of increase in cases.

Three more died in the care home where the first fatality occurred

[garbon]

Idris has caught it.

[Sheilbh]

Johnson's approach/cowardice to not order closure of businesses might sound very British but only really helping the insurance companies:

Massive problem for restaurants, pubs, entertainment industries. Government says don't go, but has not enforced closure, meaning none of them can claim insurance.

One event organiser tells me: "If they don't enforce any closures then pretty much the whole arts will go bust."

If that's an issue I imagine they'll fix it very quickly. It's already a notifiable disease under insurance and I wouldn't be surprised if non-insured companies get bailed out (and if the insurers end up needing a bail-out too - this strikes me as potentially as big for the insurance industry as asbestos). But I think they need a re-do. The budget was over a week ago and I think the world has changed since then in terms of what's necessary economically.

France enforcing social distancing - Macron repeatedly stating "we are at war". Full French civic nationalist () - announcing a very strong range of measures - suspending utilities bills etc, not a single firm will go bust