Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Iormlund]

There was actually a report on this in one of our newspapers today. The main takeaway is that Italy has a higher % of vulnerable population infected compared to other nations. Spain doesn't release age group of those infected so they couldn't find out. They speculated it was due to cultural reasons (live-in grandpas being a common ocurrence in mediterranean nations), aging population, or just skewed testing.

A couple of residences for the elderly got hit pretty badly. Also, pretty much no testing. Only direct contacts and those requiring hospitalization are being tested.

[Grey Fox]

Canada's curve shot up in the last 24 hours, not good.

[DGuller]

Canada's curve shot up in the last 24 hours, not good.

At least you guys have BC CDC.  We're totally fucked.

[Iormlund]

How long did it take in China before there was a downward trend?

It's hard to tell because there were not enough kits back then. Or at least that's what I imagine given the linear increase in cases during that time (which matches a constant rate of testing per day).

[Fate]

France is now implementing an Italian style shut down of everything but essentials like grocery stores and pharmacies.

Lebanon taking similar steps too.

IMO Washington state & NYC should consider similar steps. Trump in his press conference says they are discussing domestic travel restrictions in addition to the new UK ban on Monday.

[Maladict]

There was actually a report on this in one of our newspapers today. The main takeaway is that Italy has a higher % of vulnerable population infected compared to other nations. Spain doesn't release age group of those infected so they couldn't find out. They speculated it was due to cultural reasons (live-in grandpas being a common ocurrence in mediterranean nations), aging population, or just skewed testing.

A couple of residences for the elderly got hit pretty badly. Also, pretty much no testing. Only direct contacts and those requiring hospitalization are being tested.

Unofficial reports coming out of Dutch hospitals of many otherwise healthy 30 and 40 year olds on ventilators. The old are still more likely to die, but the under 50 age group seems to be abnormally large.

[Legbiter]

This going to be a long grind. And every week for the next few months will be twice as bad as the last one. Mostly it'll come down to local communities taking action. The tightrope is trying to maintain a functioning health system and enough economic activity vs. shutting everything down. If countries fail, good luck if you break a leg, just look it up on Youtube will be the response.

[Liep]

This going to be a long grind. And every week for the next few months will be twice as bad as the last one. Mostly it'll come down to local communities taking action. The tightrope is trying to maintain a functioning health system and enough economic activity vs. shutting everything down. If countries fail, good luck if you break a leg, just look it up on Youtube will be the response.

What's the end game? Delay until a vaccine with economic stand still for a year? Pray for summer?

[Fate]

This going to be a long grind. And every week for the next few months will be twice as bad as the last one. Mostly it'll come down to local communities taking action. The tightrope is trying to maintain a functioning health system and enough economic activity vs. shutting everything down. If countries fail, good luck if you break a leg, just look it up on Youtube will be the response.

What's the end game? Delay until a vaccine with economic stand still for a year? Pray for summer?

We gain herd immunity which decreases transmission velocity to a minimal level - probably about 12 weeks after the outbreak starts. Summer isn't protective based on what's going on in Australia.

[Legbiter]

Mathematically the pandemic should peak late May, early June and we'll be out of the worst of it by the end of August. It could come back though, Spanish Flu did a few laps around the world before enough herd immunity was established globally to snuff it out. It will end, what we do personally and together will determine how many older folks will be left.

[Sheilbh]

What's the end game? Delay until a vaccine with economic stand still for a year? Pray for summer?

There's no other coronavirus with a vaccine. So, I don't think that's an endgame in this year.

Delay, flatten the curve and try to balance the pressure on health services - hopefully things will become easier in the summer when there's fewer other respiratory illnesses doing the rounds, and either hope it doesn't come back (like Spanish flu or as that UK epidemiologist says that it just joins the other coronaviruses like the common cold) or herd immunity?

[Tamas]

There was actually a report on this in one of our newspapers today. The main takeaway is that Italy has a higher % of vulnerable population infected compared to other nations. Spain doesn't release age group of those infected so they couldn't find out. They speculated it was due to cultural reasons (live-in grandpas being a common ocurrence in mediterranean nations), aging population, or just skewed testing.

A couple of residences for the elderly got hit pretty badly. Also, pretty much no testing. Only direct contacts and those requiring hospitalization are being tested.

Unofficial reports coming out of Dutch hospitals of many otherwise healthy 30 and 40 years olds on ventilators. The old are still more likely to die, but the under 50 age group seems to be abnormally large.

I most certainly hope that is not true.

[Fate]

On pace to go over 100% by Tuesday in Lombardy...

[Iormlund]

I most certainly hope that is not true.

It might simply be the contrast with the norm.

Given that this won't stop till we get herd immunity thousands of younger folk will get very sick and die in any sizable country, while still amounting just to 0.1-0.2% of cases in that age group.

[crazy canuck]

Canada's curve shot up in the last 24 hours, not good.

At least you guys have BC CDC.  We're totally fucked.

You can go Fuck yourself

BC is still doing fine with flattening the curve and a fuck of a lot better than your fucked up Trumpist nation